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ROMAN BUTKO | FOREX AND CRYPTOCURRENCY FORECAST FOR JULY 17-21 | TALKMARKETS

Image Source: Pexels


EUR/USD: FALLING INFLATION HAS CRUSHED THE DOLLAR

So, we can either congratulate (or, conversely, upset) everyone with the onset
of a global process of ‘de-dollarization.’ As Bloomberg reports, after the
inflation rate in the US approached 3.0%, which is not far off the Federal
Reserve’s target of 2.0%, it seems like a turning point is approaching for the
US economy.

Last week, the dollar faced the most significant pressure from national
macroeconomic statistics in over a year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
published on Wednesday, July 12, showed a 0.2% increase in June, falling short
of the forecasted 0.3%. The annual indicator dropped from 4.0% to 3.0%, reaching
the lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation also fell from 5.3% in May to
4.8% in June, against a forecast of 5.0%.

Against the backdrop of such steady deceleration in inflation, market
participants began to factor into the quotations both a refusal of the second
Federal Reserve rate hike, as well as an imminent turnaround in monetary policy.

According to CME Group FedWatch data, the likelihood that the regulator will
raise the rate again after a 25-basis point hike in July has fallen from 33% to
20%. As a result, most financial instruments have made a successful onslaught on
the dollar.

Meanwhile, the market completely ignored statements by Neel Kashkari, President
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, his Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
colleague Thomas Barkin, and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller
that inflation is still above the target level and hence the Federal Reserve is
ready to continue tightening its policy (QT).

The story of the dollar’s decline did not end there. The EUR/USD currency pair
continued its rally after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on
Thursday, July 13, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) had grown by just 0.1% in
annual terms in June (forecast was 0.4%, May value was 0.9%).

As a result, the DXY Dollar Index broke the 100.00 support level and fell to the
values of April 2022, and the EUR/USD pair reached its highest level since
February 2022, marking a high at 1.1244.

Many market participants decided that the best times for the US currency are
over. The US economy will slow down, inflation will reach target values, and the
Federal Reserve will begin a campaign to soften its monetary policy.

As a result, the second half of 2023 and 2024 will become a period of
strengthening for other currencies against the dollar. The result of such
expectations was the fall of the Spot USD Index to a 15-month low, and hedge
funds exclusively engaged in selling the US currency for the first time since
March.

After a crushing week for the dollar, the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1228. As
for near-term prospects, at the time of writing, 30% of analysts voted for the
pair’s further growth, 55% for its decline, and the remaining 15% took a neutral
stance. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are on the side of
the greens, although a third of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.

The nearest support for the pair appears to be located around 1.1200, then at
1.1170, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1045, 1.0995-1.1010, and 1.0895-1.0925. Bulls will meet
resistance around 1.1245, 1.1290-1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

The blackout period leading up to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
meeting, which is set for July 26, will begin on July 15. Therefore, it’s not
worth expecting any statements from Federal Reserve officials in the coming
week. The quotations will only be influenced by the macroeconomic data hitting
the market.

On Tuesday, July 18, data on US retail sales will be released. On Wednesday,
July 19, we will find out what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the
Eurozone. Then on Thursday, July 20, data on unemployment, manufacturing
activity, and the housing market in the United States will come in.


GBP/USD: THE POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH REMAINS

Back at the end of June, we speculated that the GBP/USD currency pair might
cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. And we
were right. In the current situation, the British pound did not miss an
opportunity for growth: the peak of the week was recorded at the height of
1.3141, which corresponds to the levels of the end of March – beginning of April
2022. The final note of the five-day period sounded at the mark of 1.3092.

In addition to a weakening dollar, another driver of the pound’s growth was the
semi-annual report on the assessment of the UK’s financial system. It
demonstrated the resilience of the national economy against the backdrop of a
prolonged cycle of raising the key interest rate. Unlike several US banks, major
UK banks maintain high capitalization, and their profits are growing. This
suggests that they can withstand several more rate hikes this year.

It is expected that at its next meeting on Aug. 3, the Bank of England (BoE)
will raise the rate by another 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%. And it will do so
regardless of potential economic problems, as the fight against rising prices is
more important. Consumer inflation in the country in May was 8.7% (for
comparison, over the same period in Germany it was 6.1%, in France 4.5%, in
Japan 3.2%, and in the US 4.0% in May and 3.0% in June).

The UK’s labor market is also pushing inflation upwards. Even despite the
increase in the interest rate, the latest report noted an acceleration in wage
growth to 6.9% year-over-year. Excluding the turbulence during the COVID-19
pandemic, this is the fastest pace since 2001.

And although unemployment is rising alongside wages, its current level of 4.0%
is still historically low. Yes, in August of last year it was lower – 3.5%, but
what is a growth of only 0.5% almost over a year? It’s nothing, or almost
nothing.

In general, in the foreseeable future, there are no major obstacles that would
prevent the Bank of England from continuing to tighten monetary policy. Thus,
the prospect of further rate hikes will continue to fill the sails of the
British currency with a tailwind. And, according to a number of analysts, the
GBP/USD pair, having broken through the 1.3000 resistance, may now aim for an
assault on the 1.3500 level.

However, this does not mean that such growth will happen right now. “In a sense,
the pound has already experienced overvaluation against the backdrop of a
hawkish Bank of England and is unlikely to show strong results against the
current bearish phase of the dollar. However, traders will now be targeting
1.3300 on GBP/USD assuming we can close the week above 1.3000,” believe
strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING.

The possibility of the pound’s consolidation in the coming week is also
suggested by Canada’s Scotiabank, not ruling out pullbacks to 1.2900-1.3000 and
further growth to the area of 1.3300.

The bullish sentiment is also supported by Singapore’s United Overseas Bank. Its
economists believe that “the strong growth momentum suggests that GBP/USD is
unlikely to pull back. On the contrary, it is more likely to continue moving
towards the upper boundary of the weekly exponential moving average. This key
resistance level is currently at 1.3335.”

When it comes to the median forecast for the near future, only 25% of experts
have spoken out for further growth of the pair. The opposite position was taken
by 50%, while the remaining 25% maintained neutrality. As for technical
analysis, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are pointing upwards,
although a quarter of the latter are in the overbought zone.

If the pair moves south, it will encounter the support levels and zones
of 1.3050-1.3060, then 1.2980-1.3000, 1.2940, 1.2850-1.2875, 1.2740-1.2755,
1.2675-1.2695, 1.2570, 1.2435-1.2450, and 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of the
pair’s rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210,
1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, and 1.3605.

The events of the upcoming week worth noting in the calendar are Wednesday, July
19, when the value of such an important inflation indicator as the United
Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index will become known. Towards the end of the working
week, on Friday, July 21, data on retail sales in the country will also be
published.

These figures can have a significant impact on the exchange rate, as they
provide insights into consumer spending and overall economic activity, which are
key factors in the Bank of England’s decisions on interest rates.


USD/JPY: THE YEN PLEASED INVESTORS ONCE AGAIN

For the second week in a row, yen investors have been rewarded for their
patience. The USD/JPY currency pair continued its descent from the Moon to
Earth, marking a local minimum at 137.23. Thus, since June 30, in just two
weeks, the Japanese currency has gained more than 780 points against the US
dollar.

Compared to other currencies included in the DXY basket, the yen appears to be
the primary beneficiary. The main ace up this safe-haven currency’s sleeve is
investor fears about a recession in the US and narrowing yield differentials on
US government bonds.

The correlation between Treasuries and the USD/JPY pair is no secret to anyone.
If the yield on US Treasury bills falls, the yen shows growth against the
dollar. Last week, following the publication of CPI data, the yield on 10-year
US papers slipped from 3.95% to 3.85%, and on 2-year papers – from 4.85% to
4.70%.

Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may finally adjust its ultra-loose
monetary policy towards tightening in the coming months also continues to favor
the yen. We are talking about speculation here, as no clear signals have been
given by the country’s Government or the BoJ leadership on this matter.

Let’s recall that at the French Societe Generale, it’s expected that the yield
on 5-year US bonds will fall to 2.66% in a year’s time, which will allow the
USD/JPY pair to break below 130.00. If, at the same time, the yield on Japanese
government bonds (JGBs) remains at its current level, the pair could even drop
to 125.00.

Economists at Danske Bank are forecasting a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 within a
six to 12-month horizon. Similar forecasts are made by strategists at BNP
Paribas: they are aiming for a level of 130.00 by the end of this year and
123.00 by the end of 2024. Against this backdrop, many hedge funds have begun
active selling of dollars and buying of yen.

Last week, the USD/JPY pair ended at 138.75 after a correction to the north. As
of this review, 45% of analysts believe the pair will resume growth in the
coming days. Only 15% support further fall, and 40% maintain a wait-and-see
stance. The D1 indicators are as follows: 100% of oscillators are colored red,
but 10% signal oversold. The balance between green and red among trend
indicators is 35% to 60%.

The nearest support level is in the 138.05-138.30 zone, followed by
137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70,
128.10, and 127.20. The closest resistance is 1.3895-1.3905, then 139.85,
140.45-140.60, 141.40-141.60, 142.20, 143.75-144.00, 145.15-145.30,
146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected
in the upcoming week. However, traders may want to note that Monday, July 17 is
a holiday in Japan: the country is observing Marine Day.


CRYPTOCURRENCIES: KARL MARX AND $120,000 FOR BTC

After the release of impressive consumer inflation data in the US last week, the
markets became confident in the Fed’s imminent abandonment of monetary
restriction and a turn towards lowering the key rate. The dollar responded to
this with a sharp fall, and risky financial instruments – with growth. The S&P
500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite stock indices went up, but not Bitcoin.

The BTC/USD pair continued to move sideways along the Pivot Point $30,600,
trapped in a narrow range. It seems as if it has completely forgotten about its
direct correlation with stocks and its inverse correlation with the dollar. On
Thursday, July 13, after the release of the American PPI, Bitcoin still tried to
break through to the north, but unsuccessfully: the very next day it returned
within the limits of the sideways channel.

Why did this happen? What prevented digital gold from soaring along with the
stock market? There don’t seem to be any super serious reasons for this.
Although analysts do point to three factors that are weighing on the crypto
market.

The first of these is the low profitability of mining. Due to the increasing
computational complexity, it remains close to a historical minimum. Moreover, it
is accompanied by the fear of a possible new price drop. This is pushing miners
to sell not only freshly mined coins (about 900 BTC per day), but also
accumulated reserves. According to Bitcoinmagazine data, miners have transferred
a record volume of coins to exchanges in the last six years.

In addition to miners, the US government is contributing to the increase in
supply. On just one day, July 12, it transferred $300 million worth of coins to
crypto exchanges. And this is the second negative factor.

Finally, the third is the bankrupt Mt.Gox exchange, which must pay customers
everything that remains in its accounts by the end of October. This equates to
approximately 135,900 BTC, totalling roughly $4.8 billion. Payments will be made
in cryptocurrency, which will then be available on the market for sale and
exchange for fiat.

Of course, all of this does not add positivity, increasing the supply but not
the demand. However, considering that the average trading volume of Bitcoin
exceeds $12 billion daily, the figures mentioned do not seem that apocalyptic.

In our view, the main reason for the current sideways trend is a balance between
positives and negatives. The positives are the applications to launch spot
BTC-ETFs from such giants as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. The
negatives are the increasing regulatory pressure on the crypto market by the US
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It should be noted that the SEC has previously rejected all applications for
spot BTC-ETFs and is not currently eager to give them the green light.
Therefore, the struggle for these funds could be drawn out over many months.

For instance, a final decision on BlackRock’s application is not expected until
mid-Q3 2023 at the earliest, and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month
before the next BTC halving. The halving could be the trigger for not only the
subsequent, but also the preceding growth of BTC.

According to economists at Standard Chartered Bank, the price of Bitcoin may
exceed $50,000 this year, and it could reach $120,000 by the end of the next
year. In the view of bank analyst Geoff Kendrick, as the price rises, miners
will return to a strategy of accumulation.

As already mentioned, they are currently selling everything they mine. However,
when Bitcoin is trading at $50,000, their sales will decrease from the current
900 coins to 180-270 per day. Such a decrease in supply should lead to further
growth in the value of the asset. In general, everything is in line with Karl
Marx’s economic theory of supply and demand.

In addition to miners, institutional investors are also expected to show
interest in accumulating Bitcoins, in anticipation not only of the launch of
spot BTC-ETFs and the halving, but also of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s
monetary policy and a weakening of the dollar. As Grayscale Investments CEO
Michael Sonnenshein recently stated, it has become clear that the first
cryptocurrency is no longer a “passing fad.” 

“Recent news […] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader
sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment
opportunity.”

Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino also believes that the dollar is ready to
significantly depreciate. However, he does not consider an apocalyptic scenario
of a collapse of the world’s main currency, as the dynamics of its exchange rate
are slower than those of other classes of financial assets. However, Pizzino
predicts a steady downward trend in the US dollar in the foreseeable period and
a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets.

The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and given the correlation
between the US dollar and BTC, a fall in the former could contribute to an
increase in the value of the latter, followed by growth in other significant
crypto assets.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the famous book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” claims that by
2024, Bitcoin will reach the $120,000 mark. The economist bases his forecast on
the fact that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)
will soon move to the gold standard and issue their own cryptocurrency backed by
gold. This could undermine the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the world economy
and cause its devaluation.

He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in
the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption. In this regard,
Kiyosaki recommends protecting your money from inflation by buying physical gold
and Bitcoin.

A similar figure, only not at the beginning, but by the end of 2024, was named
by the head of research at the crypto-financial service Matrixport, Markus
Thielen. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotes of the first
cryptocurrency could overcome the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. “On
June 22, Bitcoin reached a new annual high. This signal historically indicated
the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets,” he explained.

According to Thielen, the price of Bitcoin can soar by 123% over 12 months and
by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset will rise to $65,539
and $125,731, respectively. The expert’s forecast is based on the average
profitability of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May
2019, and August 2020 (Thielen intentionally ignores the first case with growth
of 5,285% over 18 months).

As for a more short-term forecast, Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture
company Eight, believes that Bitcoin is preparing for a leap to $41,000. The
popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent growth of the first
cryptocurrency rate and Fibonacci levels. According to him, “the previous annual
high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher
highs as traders build up bullish momentum and positions.”

“To continue the uptrend, which we call a bull cycle, Bitcoin needs to reach a
new and clearer high,” explains Michael Van De Poppe. “There are several points
that allow determining the possibilities of further growth using Fibonacci
levels. And now I would say that there is a rally to $41,000 ahead.”

“There are two scenarios: a rise above the current maximum, followed by some
consolidation and a rollback before a new growth. Or consolidation at current
levels, and then accelerated growth in the coming months. For Bitcoin, this is
pretty standard behaviour. And then we will go to $41,000 or even $42,500,” the
analyst predicts.

As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has recently been seen trading around
$30,180. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly
increased and stands at approximately $1.198 trillion ($1.176 trillion a week
ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone and stands at 60 points
(55 points a week ago).

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