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Onload Advanced Overlay
The Next President Is Unlikely to Sink the Economy—or the Stock Market
Managing Volatility Client Conversations Servicing Clients Most Popular


Dire predictions about past presidents have usually proven to be wrong.



As election season heats up, you’re going to hear lots of dire predictions about
what will happen if President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump is
reelected. If history is any guide, the US economy and the stock market may be
fine in the long run no matter who’s in office.


Ronald Wilson Reagan
40th US President
1981-1989

In 1980 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth* S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return*
 * Former actor lacks the experience to be president
 * Belligerence toward the Soviet Union could lead to nuclear war
 * Reaganomics is dangerous and won’t work

3.5% 14.2%

George Herbert Walker Bush
41st US President
1989-1993

In 1988 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Not a strong leader like Reagan
 * Lacks vision (“the vision thing”)
 * Part of the Reagan administration that doubled the national debt

2.2% 15.7%

William Jefferson Clinton
42nd US President
1993-2001

In 1992 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Governor of a small state—unproven on the national scale
 * Tax increases will sink the US economy
 * Government takeover of healthcare will nationalize 20% of the US economy

3.9% 17.2%

George Walker Bush
43rd US President
2001-2009

In 2000 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Running for president because of his last name, not his accomplishments
 * Tax cuts will only benefit the wealthy
 * No foreign policy experience—not ready for a crisis

2.2% -2.9%

Barack Hussein Obama
44th US President
2009-2017

In 2008 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Inexperienced—only served in the US Senate for two years before running for
   president
 * Soaring rhetoric and exorbitant campaign promises are “just words”
 * Desire for a large stimulus bill and healthcare plan will explode the
   national debt

1.7% 14.5%

Donald John Trump
45th US President
2017-2021

In 2016 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Never held political office
 * Doesn’t speak or act in a way that’s presidential
 * Trade war with China will damage the US economy

1.4% 16.0%

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.
46th US President
2021-Present

In 2020 His Critics Said: Average US GDP Growth S&P 500 Index Average Annual
Return
 * Too old to be president
 * Career politician
 * More of a vice president than a president

3.7% 10.2%

 

Don’t fret if your preferred candidate doesn’t get elected in November! The US
economy and stock market have generally marched higher through Democratic and
Republican administrations alike. Dramatic events such as 9/11, the global
financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic can cause sharp market selloffs—but
our economy and stock market have historically been resilient to these types of
shocks. 



Your financial professional can help you stay focused on your long-term goals
regardless of who’s in the White House.


* GDP is calculated beginning on January 1 of the year a president is elected;
S&P 500 Index returns are calculated beginning on Inauguration Day. For
President Biden, GDP is as of 9/30/23 (most recent data available), and S&P 500
Index returns are as of 12/31/23. Data Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
and IMF via FactSet, Morningstar, and Hartford Funds, 1/24.

S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted price index composed of 500
widely held common stocks.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The index is unmanaged and
not available for direct investment. For illustrative purposes only.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

This material is provided for educational purposes only.

 

CCWP094 3331861




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 * Contact Us
 * Careers
 * Press Center
 * Tax Center


 * Legal Notices
 * Privacy Policy
 * Proxy Information
 * Index Provider Notices
 * Accessibility Statement
 * Business Continuity
 * The Hartford

The material on this site is for informational and educational purposes only.
The material should not be considered tax or legal advice and is not to be
relied on as a forecast. The material is also not a recommendation or advice
regarding any particular security, strategy or product. Hartford Funds does not
represent that any products or strategies discussed are appropriate for any
particular investor so investors should seek their own professional advice
before investing. Hartford Funds does not serve as a fiduciary. Content is
current as of the publication date or date indicated, and may be superseded by
subsequent market and economic conditions.


Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors
should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and
expenses. This and other important information is contained in the mutual fund,
or ETF summary prospectus and/or prospectus, which can be obtained from a
financial professional and should be read carefully before investing.


Mutual funds are distributed by Hartford Funds Distributors, LLC (HFD), Member
FINRA|SIPC. ETFs are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. (ALPS). Advisory
services may be provided by Hartford Funds Management Company, LLC (HFMC) or its
wholly owned subsidiary, Lattice Strategies LLC (Lattice). Certain funds are
sub-advised by Wellington Management Company LLP and/or Schroder Investment
Management North America Inc (SIMNA). Schroder Investment Management North
America Ltd. (SIMNA Ltd) serves as a secondary sub-adviser to certain funds.
HFMC, Lattice, Wellington Management, SIMNA, and SIMNA Ltd. are all SEC
registered investment advisers. Hartford Funds refers to HFD, Lattice, and HFMC,
which are not affiliated with any sub-adviser or ALPS. The funds and other
products referred to on this Site may be offered and sold only to persons in the
United States and its territories.


© Copyright 2024 Hartford Funds Management Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Not
FDIC Insured | No Bank Guarantee | May Lose Value 

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