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ANALYSIS


2023 NFL SEASON: SIX PLAYOFF CONTENDERS FACING THE TOUGHEST SCHEDULES DOWN THE
STRETCH

Published: Dec 13, 2023 at 11:16 AM
Kevin Patra

Around the NFL Writer


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The holiday season brings the stretch run for the 2023 NFL campaign. However you
celebrate, we can all gather 'round and appreciate what is sure to be a
fascinating finish.

With four games remaining for all 32 teams, a single playoff spot has been
secured, and two clubs have been eliminated from postseason contention. Only the
San Francisco 49ers hold more than a two-game lead for a division title, and
both No. 1 seeds are up for grabs.

Most division races could come down to the wire, particularly after the results
of Week 14 left the door open for several comeback bids (SEE: losses by Miami,
Detroit and Kansas City). But the biggest jumble this season in the final four
weeks is the hoard of clubs at or on the cusp of a wild-card spot.

Six AFC teams (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, Buffalo)
sit at 7-6, with the top wild-card spot held by the Joe Flacco-led Browns at
8-5. In the NFC, the loser of the East title (Philadelphia or Dallas) is likely
to secure the No. 5 seed, but the final two slots are there for the taking.
Minnesota (7-6) sits at No. 6, and Green Bay is No. 7 but is joined by five
other teams in the conference at 6-7 (Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Seattle, Atlanta
and New Orleans).

The final quarter of the season sports some tough stretches, but the strength of
schedule is only part of the equation. With backup quarterbacks thrust into
prime roles throughout the NFL landscape, other injuries jarring teams, and
inconsistent play characterizing many clubs, predicting performance down the
stretch is a hodgepodge guessing game.

The ebb and flow of a wild season changes the dynamics every week. Are the
Titans suddenly a spirited team not to be walked over following Monday’s road
win? Can Jake Browning keep up his stellar play, or is a regression coming? Who
are the Detroit Lions?

The landscape is sure to look much different on New Year's Eve than it does
today, as Week 15 includes nine games between teams in or within one game of
playoff position. But we should still expect those wild-card spots to be up for
grabs. Let's take a closer look at the six toughest remaining schedules among
those contenders for a wild-card berth.


Rank
1

Pittsburgh Steelers
7-6-0

Remaining four games: at Colts (7-6), vs. Bengals (7-6), at Seahawks (6-7), at
Ravens (10-3)




Pittsburgh doesn't own the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the
league, but the circumstances surrounding the Steel City's club make it the most
difficult of this bunch. 




The Steelers offense was already hosting tea parties in Strugglesville before
Kenny Pickett went down with an ankle injury that required surgery. In
retrospect, after watching Mitch Trubisky attempt to run the operation, Pickett
looks like the Martha Stewart of pigskin matriculation. 




Through Week 14, Pittsburgh is averaging 16.2 points per game, the third-fewest
by a club with a winning record in the last 40 seasons, per NFL Research. Mike
Tomlin's team has relied on the defense to create game-altering plays, which,
stunningly, it has done at a higher rate than should be expected. But the
formula is breaking down as the defense deals with a multitude of injuries and
fatigue from needing to be perfect to carry the offense. 




The final four weeks sees the Steelers facing four clubs, each clawing for
playoff position, including three road tilts and two rivalry games. After losing
back-to-back home games to two-win teams, do the Steelers have it in them to
right the ship? If they do, particularly with Trubisky under center for at least
one more week, it might be Tomlin's most masterful job to date. 

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Rank
2

Minnesota Vikings
7-6-0

Remaining four games: at Bengals (7-6), vs. Lions (9-4), vs. Packers (6-7), at
Lions (9-4)




The five-game win streak that propelled Kevin O'Connell's club into playoff
position is a month in the rearview. Sunday's 3-0 win in Las Vegas didn't
exactly instill confidence that it can go on another run against four teams
jostling for postseason position. 




The good news for Minnesota is that Brian Flores' defense is terrorizing
opponents, having not allowed a touchdown since Week 11 and only allowing 15
points per game since Week 6 (fewest in the NFL). The crew bamboozles
quarterbacks with pressure, and the backend flies around, creating turnovers.
It's a playoff-worthy unit. 




The bad news is the offense has cratered. Since Josh Dobbs' magic ran out, the
Vikings' offense can't consistently generate drives and finds itself too often
in long down-and-distances. In their last three games, the Vikings have
registered three total touchdowns. The lack of a rushing attack leaves the
passing game vulnerable. Can Nick Mullens, who sports a 5-12 record as a
starter, be the answer? 




The Vikings' one-game lead on a cluster of 6-7 clubs gives them some wiggle room
in the NFC, but Minnesota needs Flores' defense to lead the way. It faces backup
Jake Browning, who has played well replacing Joe Burrow. Two games are against a
suddenly floundering Lions team, and the Vikings get a home matchup against a
Green Bay team they've already beaten on the road. The Vikings would be lower on
this list if not for the glaring quarterback concerns. 

Rank
3

Cincinnati Bengals
7-6-0

Remaining four games: vs. Vikings (7-6), at Steelers (7-6), at Chiefs (8-5), vs.
Browns (8-5)




Just when the season appeared lost, Jake Browning swooped in and saved Cincy --
for now. The backup quarterback has managed the game with aplomb, spearheading
Cincy to two straight wins in which the offense put up 34 points in each tilt.
It's been a masterful coaching job from Zac Taylor to keep the Bengals in the
hunt. 




The true tests for Browning await. The Bengals face four defenses that can
control contests and make game-winning plays. Three of the four rank in the top
10 in points allowed, and the fourth (Cleveland) has allowed the fewest yards
for the season. 




Cincinnati doesn't face a team with a losing record and must travel to
Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Those tilts might not look as daunting as they once
appeared, but hostile environments tend to bring out the worst in backup
quarterbacks.  




The Bengals will need Lou Anarumo's defense to stand tall against suspect
offenses to make a run back to the playoffs. 

Rank
4

Buffalo Bills
7-6-0

Remaining four games: vs. Cowboys (10-3), at Chargers (5-8), vs. Patriots
(3-10), at Dolphins (9-4)




The magnitude of Sunday's win in Kansas City can't be understated. Going 3-2 in
their past five games, Sean McDermott's club currently sits in the No. 11 spot
-- not where the Bills expected to be with four games left. 




The Dolphins’ loss on Monday night re-opened the door in the AFC East, but
Buffalo must worry only about the game in front of them: a date with the
streaking Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. A home loss would put its four-year playoff
streak in jeopardy. 




Buffalo has been inconsistent since October. If it wasn't the offense turning
the ball over in droves, it was McDermott's defense cratering in tight games or
head-scratching mental and coaching mistakes.




Can Josh Allen spin magic down the stretch? The QB is 15-2 in December/January
in the regular season since 2020, the most wins in the NFL in that span. He also
leads the league with 39 pass TDs and 47 total TDs in regular-season games in
December and January since 2020.




The Bills see two lighter matchups sandwiching big games, facing a Chargers team
starting Easton Stick in Week 16 and a home date against the three-win Patriots.
But Buffalo already lost to New England once this season, so that shouldn't be
considered a gimme. 




If Allen & Co. go on a run, it could set up a massive showdown in Miami in Week
18. Given the roller-coaster play from McDermott's club to date, however, we
can't pencil that in just yet. 


Rank
5

Seattle Seahawks
6-7-0

Remaining four games: vs. Eagles (10-3), at Titans (5-8), vs. Steelers (7-6), at
Cardinals (3-10)




When Pete Carroll's club sat at 6-3 after Week 10, we knew a gauntlet awaited.
Seattle has fallen in every test since then. The four-game skid, highlighted by
two double-digit losses to the 49ers, marked the first four-game losing streak
of the Carroll era. Now, the Seahawks host the 10-3 Eagles in a massive
prime-time affair for both teams on Monday night.




While Drew Lock played well enough in Sunday's loss in San Francisco, Geno
Smith's latest injury looms over the Seahawks' stretch run. In Seattle's six
wins this season, it has scored 20-plus points each tilt. In the seven losses,
it has gone over the 17-point mark once. Carroll doesn't sport a defense that
can currently win them games.




The schedule finally lightens up after Week 15, but the test in Tennessee won't
be easy. Seattle hasn't won a road game since Week 4, and the Titans play much
better at home. It's conceivable Kenny Pickett could return for the Week 17 game
versus the Steelers. And the Seahawks didn't exactly blow the doors off Arizona
in their Week 7 win over the Josh Dobbs-led Cards.




A year ago, Carroll's club used a late-season surge to sneak into the
postseason. They'll need to do so again.

Rank
6

Houston Texans
7-6-0

Remaining four games: at Titans (5-8), vs. Browns (8-5), vs. Titans (5-8), at
Colts (7-6)




It's less the schedule than the circumstances surrounding DeMeco Ryans' club
that lands them on this list. 




The two tilts against the Titans look friskier following Tennessee's road win
over Miami on Monday night, and the Browns and Colts are battling for playoff
position. But it's the brutal string of injuries that have cause for concern for
an upstart young squad. 




Losing Tank Dell for the season was seismic. Security blanket Dalton Schultz has
been out. Nico Collins is dealing with a calf injury yet again. Then sensational
rookie C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion in Week 14. Even if the QB returns,
will he have enough weapons to make a late-season push? 




Stroud has been otherworldly in his rookie campaign as the Texans managed a
litany of offensive line injuries. But can he survive the line shuffling and
playing without his top receiving targets? Dell, Collins and Schultz have
combined for 18 of the Texans' 21 touchdown receptions in 2023. 




Even being in a position to make a postseason run in Year 1 under head coach
DeMeco Ryans is one of the stories of the season. The youthful group is clearly
ahead in its rebuild. However, playoff chances in future years are never a
given. If Houston overcomes all of the injuries down the stretch to make the
postseason, Ryans would deserve Coach of the Year honors. 




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   with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g.
   reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance,
   whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a
   product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you
   visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of
   (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
   
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 * UNDERSTAND AUDIENCES THROUGH STATISTICS OR COMBINATIONS OF DATA FROM
   DIFFERENT SOURCES 362 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user
   profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your
   interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising)
   content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which
   target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain
   contents).
   
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 * DEVELOP AND IMPROVE SERVICES 418 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction
   with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and
   to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of
   audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or
   improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
   
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 * USE LIMITED DATA TO SELECT CONTENT 98 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such
   as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device
   type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example,
   to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
   
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USE PRECISE GEOLOCATION DATA 234 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Use precise geolocation data

With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500
metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.

List of IAB Vendors‎

ACTIVELY SCAN DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION 114 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS PURPOSE

Actively scan device characteristics for identification

With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be
requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed
fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes
explained in this notice.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT AND DETECT FRAUD, AND FIX ERRORS 464 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent
activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct
any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery
of content and ads and in your interaction with them.

List of IAB Vendors‎ | View Illustrations 

DELIVER AND PRESENT ADVERTISING AND CONTENT 450 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to
ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to
facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.

List of IAB Vendors‎ | View Illustrations 

MATCH AND COMBINE DATA FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES 309 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with
other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for
instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card
in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in
this notice.

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES 302 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet
connection on both devices).

List of IAB Vendors‎

IDENTIFY DEVICES BASED ON INFORMATION TRANSMITTED AUTOMATICALLY 431 PARTNERS CAN
USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of
your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the
purposes exposed in this notice.

List of IAB Vendors‎
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