mammothweather.com Open in urlscan Pro
160.153.0.137  Public Scan

Form analysis
0 forms found in the DOM

Text Content

MAMMOTH WEATHER

Brought to you by Howard Sheckter

 * Latest Post
 * Howard’s Discussion »
   * Howard’s weather discussion
   * Platinum Powder Alerts
   * The Snow Phone
   * Radio Broadcast schedule
   * Subscribe by RSS
   * Archives
 * Live Conditions! »
   * Live Mammoth Webcams
   * Current Conditions
     from Howard’s Weather Center
   * Today’s Overview
     from Howard’s Weather Center
   * The Last 24 hours
     from Howard’s Weather Center
   * Monthly Data Graphs
     from Howard’s Weather Center
   * Last Month Report
     from Howard’s Weather Center
   * Local Highway Conditions
     from Caltrans
 * Latest Forecast »
   * NWS Mammoth Town Forecast
   * NWS Mammoth Slopes Forecast
   * NWS Mammoth Mtn. Forecast
   * NWS Crowley Lake Forecast
   * NWS June Lake Forecast
   * NWS Lee Vining Forecast
   * NWS Bishop Forecast
   * NWS Bridgeport Forecast
   * NWS Death Valley Forecast
 * Howard’s Favorites »
   * Howard’s Top Ten
   * Howard’s Favorite Forecasting and Data Resources
 * About »
   * Website Sponsors
   * About Howard
   * Website Feedback
   * Posts Page


LATEST POST

 * Old Upper Low off the Oregon Coast gets the Boot in Wednesday…Temperatures
   finally become milder Thursday as pacific air invades…..Scripps has AR a Cat
   4 for Friday……Pattern next week a bit more dubious this afternoon…..
   by Howard
   March 7, 2023
   3/8/2023 12:00PM Update Old Low off the coast of Oregon since last weekend is
   ejecting through California at the moment.  It will be out of here later
   today and we’ll have clearing sky’s for a while. Additional snowfall today is
   in the 1 to 5 inch range by this afternoon. New runs of the GFS since 10:00PM
   last night backed off on the break that was hoped for on the Tuesday system.
   So potentially,  another large storm is expected with another AR possible
   Tuesday. In the meantime the extension of the East Asian Jet is progged to
   reach the west coast Thursday. The moisture in the fetch reaches the Sierra
   later in the day/evening Thursday. The storm that moves in Thursday Night
   will be all snow in town up until about Midnight, as airmass modification
   will take into Friday more for the chance to rain or rain or rain/snow mix.  
   Of Note; The Dweebs have to say that snow levels will be tricky Friday
   morning as NWS discussion’s are mentioning the possibility of an isothermal
   level, before the winds really kick up Friday. If that works out, the storm
   could be bring heavy snowfall to the town before the inversion breaks and it
   changes to rain/snow mix.  Well see how that all works out!   The first AR
   looks to be with us through Friday evening. Scripps earlier this morning
   lowered the AR Category to level 3 from the 10:00PM 3/7/23 GFS run, but
   bumped it back up to a Level 4. Most likely, the difference had to do with
   how fast the Atmos River is progged through. Then the 4:00AM run this morning
   may have slowed the River down again so were back to level 4 (Strong).  Here
   is a point I want to make for the Mammoth area. I do not see this storm as a
   flooding threat.  That will be mostly below 6500feet. The threat is the
   additional weight upon structures that have not been shoveled this winter
   with an already record snowpack.  This is especially true to lower pitched
   roofs that were built in the 1960s and 1970s. If your windows are difficult
   to open, and or your doors are difficult to close or just not catch in the
   slot in the Jam, that may be a problem. Most of the precipitation will be
   absorbed in the snow.  That is all extra weight on the framing of the home or
   cabin. With another wet storm moving in possibly next Monday night it just
   gets frightening! Below is the latest QPF graphic from the WPC; It shows up
   to 15 inches of water over the Sierra by late Wednesday afternoon the 15th of
   March.                  
   ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
   3/7/2023 Cats out of the bag now with Cat 4 AR headed into Central CA.  Up to
   10 inches of QPF the record, the freezing level goes up to 9000+ by late AM
   and with wind, that’s rain/rain snow mix in town. rain is possible on the
   west side of the Sierra Thursday Night through Sunday AM. Flood Advisories
   are hoisted for many areas on the west side of Sierra now. Our weather today
   is beautiful with some high clouds over head. There is little in the way of
   any wind in town. Skiers and Boarders are back scaling Sherwin Bowl. Mammoth
   Mt is in operation again! Weather: The Forecast includes the fact that the
   low off the Oregon will get kicked inland Wednesday. As it does, an area of
   lift will come though our area and produce some light accumulations
   Wednesday. Some 2 to 4 inches of snow over the upper elevations is possible
   Wednesday.  By Thursday, a new pattern emerges. This is the beginning of the
   pattern forced by MJO. (Madden Julian Oscillation) (The extension of the East
   Asian Jet) Initially it will bring West then SW flow, milder temperatures
   then increase clouds in the morning. Light Snowfall could begin as early as
   Thursday afternoon. In that there is a lot of cold air still in place, it is
   not likely for the snow level to rise enough for rain/snow mix before
   midnight, and there is the chance it may stay snow until later Friday morning
   at 8000 feet. The freezing level rises to 9,000+ by 4:00AM Friday. So the
   Snow will be very wet Friday and there is the chance for rain or rain snow
   mix during the day. By Friday night, if the snow had changed to rain during
   Friday afternoon, it will change back to snow during the evening.   Remember,
   the snow to water ratios will be quite variable. And if it is rain, the snow
   will absorb to the level of saturation. If by chance the snow on your roof
   becomes saturated;  Saturated snow weighs about 20 lbs./cubic foot. If you do
   not know how much your roof can handle, get it shoveled soon by a pro! The
   following is an educated guess on the QPF in town for the storm;   QPF =
   Quantitated Precipitation Forecast In Town, the Aprox QPF for Thursday
   afternoon until 10:00PM is about .60 inches of water. Between 10:00PM
   Thursday and 4:00AM Friday QPF is about 1.30 inches of water. 4:00AM Friday
   and 10:00AM Friday 1.00 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday  1.00 4:00PM Friday
   and 10:00PM  Friday .75 10:00PM Friday  and 4:00AM Saturday AM  .50 4:00AM
   Saturday and Sunday morning   .75   BTW: For two deterministic GFS model
   runs, it has been backing off on the Tuesday Storm.  It shows lighter
   snowfall. Maybe we will get a break next week!   So far the European does not
   agree but there is plenty of time to adjust. Keeping good thoughts!   Dr
   Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

 

 

Read all Howard’s posts


 * LIVE VIEW
   
   
   
   
   Shopping Mammoth real estate? Have Howard contact you!


 * CURRENT SATELLITE
   
   
   
   
   


 * VISIT HOWARD FOR REAL ESTATE
   
   
   
   
   Howard Sheckter
   Realtor, Coldwell Banker
   On Main Street
   next to Schat's Bakery
   Mammoth Lakes, California
   Phone: (760) 914-1800
   Have Howard contact you
   
   
   


 * READ HOWARD’S LATEST!
   
   
   
    * Old Upper Low off the Oregon Coast gets the Boot in Wednesday…Temperatures
      finally become milder Thursday as pacific air invades…..Scripps has AR a
      Cat 4 for Friday……Pattern next week a bit more dubious this afternoon…..
    * Cold Storm to continue snowfall Sunday with moderate to heavy
      amounts…..Unsettled Weather will hang around through mid week……MJO
      continues to Crank and is now Modulating the Westerlies……Extension of East
      Asian Jet now Probable…..1st AR expected about next Friday for the
      Sierra…..
    * After a couple of Beautiful Days…Another Winter Storm is on the
      way…..Still no confidence in the Week 2 Outlook yet!!
    * Storm system winds down with snow showers today and partly cloudy Sky’s
      the next few days….Next storm becomes stationary Saturday night into next
      week with moderate amounts of Snowfall expected……The Week 2 Outlook still
      shows the East Asian Jet Progged to reach California the following
      weekend….
    * Major Winter Snow Storm in Play…Break on Sunday with another Sunday Night
      into Tuesday Night…..Pattern Change is expected next weekend…..
    * Arctic Air Now Entrenched in the High Country…..Very Cold Temps along with
      gusty winds and strong wind chills…. Strong Winter Storm will exit through
      So-Cal Saturday with important effects for Southern Cal and the Owens
      Valley…..
    * Enjoy one more day of 40s in Mammoth….More Arctic Air on the way for
      Tuesday Night through Friday as a repeat of the pattern earlier in the
      month expected…However with more over-water trajectory…… “Platinum Powder”
      Alert hoisted for Friday and Saturday…..



ShareThis Copy and Paste