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COMPLAINT BOX | WEATHER FORECASTS

By Michael Emmer December 11, 2009 11:00 am December 11, 2009 11:00 am
P.C. Vey

As we move through fall toward winter, I can sense the local news channels
gearing up their daily love-hate relationship with the weather.

COMPLAINT BOX

GOT A GRIPE?

Get a grip. Send your rant — no more than 500 words, please — to:
metropolitan@nytimes.com.

It was not always so. When I was growing up in the 1950s and ’60s, television
and radio weather reporters were usually called forecasters, not meteorologists.
Their reports were short. Precipitation, temperature, wind speed. Take an
umbrella. Dress accordingly. If a prediction turned out to be inaccurate, the
consequences seemed more of an inconvenience than an occasion for outrage.

These days, local news channels devote far more time to the weather, which, in
turn, increases its influence over our lives. In October, for instance, our
civic association in Marine Park, Brooklyn, canceled its annual Halloween walk
after a weather prediction of a northeaster, which, as you may recall, tiptoed
into town well into the evening, long after the hours of the scheduled event. My
disappointed granddaughter was taken to see “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs”
instead.

But it’s not just the inaccuracy that irks me. And it’s not the ubiquitous
seven-day forecast that allows me to fret far in advance that it could rain the
day I have to take my mother-in-law to the eye doctor. (Has anyone quantified
the accuracy of those long-range forecasts?) Nor is it the need to give a
weather update every few minutes on the early morning newscast to supplement the
scrolling weather figures at the bottom of the screen. (I, too, can understand
the importance of repetition when I’ve just staggered out of bed with only a
vague idea of what day it is.)

No, my real scorn is reserved for the network news devaluation of the word
“storm.” When did every weather event beyond cloudy become a storm? Is there a
simple front moving in with some wind and clouds and rain? Not on your life!
Bring on “Storm Center,” “StormWatch” or “Storm Tracker.” And get ready for
reporters in the field, braving the elements in New Jersey and Westchester and
Flushing with fanfare and bravado usually reserved for correspondents in a
combat zone. Thunder and lightning? Time for expanded coverage!

And just let the temperature dip below freezing. No longer can we expect the
arrival of “a few inches of snow.” Unless it’s only a flurry, every snow event
is brought in on the wings of a storm. Reel out the stock footage of mounds of
salt being loaded onto spreaders. Interview the sanitation truck drivers as they
mount the chains on their tires, sometimes supervised by dour life-size stuffed
animals squeezed behind the front grillwork. Get reactions from the valiant but
unprepared out-of-towners from Minnesota as they hopscotch through ankle-high
slush while the storm continues to swirl mercilessly around them. Can’t we
reserve the word “storm” for something that’s really — stormy?

Accustomed to such climatic exaggeration, I fully expect to be snowed in once an
actual blizzard hits, my shovel pristine and unreachable behind the eight-foot
drift against my garage door.

And where will those meteorologists be then? Telecasting to a city whose power
lines have already been downed by the whipping winds and hefty accumulations of
a storm they could only dream of.

Michael Emmer is a retired high school teacher who lives in Marine Park,
Brooklyn.

Read all columns in this series.

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Comments are no longer being accepted.

George December 11, 2009 · 11:26 am

This is a Luddite screed. Simply put – with weather satellites, doppler radar
and many other modern technological advances – weather prediction is far more
accurate now than it was in the 1950’s and ’60’s.

I know – I grew up then too.



While local factors may make the actual severity (or lack thereof) of a
weather-event difficult to nail down exactly – the fact is that weather
forecasts are much more reliable now than in the past. And it is inevitable, as
technology further advances, that accuracy will continue to increase.



What the complainer here is really pointing out is his own faulty perceptions as
to what was then versus what is now.



As to the complaint about quantification of accuracy of long-range forecasts –
they are there just as plain as day. What exactly do you think those
“probabilities” mean when it’s stated that there is a 70% chance of
thunderstorms etc.?



Each weather event, under the conditions existing at the time, is measured and
added to the data base that further refines these probablities.



It’s mostly evident that this complainer just has a gripe with the world – a
symptom of the societal problem known as “aging baby boomer grumpiness”.



Perhaps the bigger problem, actually, is this Complaints Box thread – which
simply confirms the fact that the Web has bred a society of blog posting whiners
and gripers – or at least provided an all-pervasive outlet for them to blather
on.

Warren Howie Hughes December 11, 2009 · 11:31 am

All Weather Forecasters should be rounded up and jailed (30 days will suffice)
for continually providing erroneous information that commuters, school children
and farmers so vitally rely upon!

homer jay December 11, 2009 · 11:35 am

weather forecasters or meteorologists or whatever they call themselves these
days have to be correct only 30 or 40% of the time.with all the
computers,satellites,etc how come every single forecast is different-and usually
wrong?

if they were in business they wouldnt last a month. it seems to me that all the
“forecasters” on ny tv have lifetime jobs and never get fired if they screw up.

thats the job i want in my next life :)

DonO December 11, 2009 · 11:43 am

The term “storm” is just part of the tabloidization of the local news. It goes
along with the stunning developments and shocking revelations.

The inaccuracies appear deliberate. If a meteorologist (yes, they actually go to
college and major in meteorology, they only minor in modeling) says it’s going
to be sunny and it snows, we get upset. If there is a 10% chance of drizzle and
it turns out sunny, we thank our lucky stars and move on.

Katie December 11, 2009 · 11:48 am

I really doubt it would be the ” valiant but unprepared out of-towners from
Minnesota” that would be caught unpreparad by weather–people from Florida or
Europe perhaps. But MN?

JR December 11, 2009 · 11:52 am

Try living in Florida down Hurricane Alley and watch the weather panic ensue the
first time theres a storm about 6000 miles away. Run immediately to Home Depot
to get plywood, bottled water, and enough canned food to last a nuclear winter.

Cannon Green December 11, 2009 · 12:17 pm

Excellent topic for complaint box. Just as the local news doesn’t really report
on actual local news much anymore, the weather segments have been turned into
weathertainment schlock complete with the live field reports, matching
outerwear, shots of snowplows … wait for it…snowplowing, interviews of befuddled
motorists (“it’s wet!”), etc. Anyone who seriously needs weather info goes to
the internet for the usable data.

Watching the news, weather or sports on local TV is for brain-dead viewers who
somehow find it enjoyable to watch the actors, er, newsteam, banter about the
set. Just stop watching as I have and you’ll feel much better.

SKV December 11, 2009 · 12:23 pm

Michael, you have the solution in your own hands. Turn off the TV. (This is
actually the solution to many complaints, by the way.) Open the door or window
and look outside. Buy a pocket-size umbrella. And go live your life.

Danny December 11, 2009 · 12:43 pm

I fully agree with the writer. I think the problem is that weather reports
suffer from the same thing that regular news reports suffer from – the need to
be entertaining. No longer can these reports be just informative; they have to
grip and entertain the viewer. Therefore, every chance of shower or flurry
becomes a storm and every storm becomes a nor’easter. It’s all for the ratings,
sadly.

Dave December 11, 2009 · 12:45 pm

Last night’s Fox local broadcast (10PM – Ch. 5) was a re-hash of the same news
from the previous night’s broadcast. Evidently, Thursday was either a slow news
day or the news from Wednesday was so gripping it was worth repeating.

The only “new” news was the weather forecast. Nick Gregory gave us the update on
the “bitter” cold and “fierce” windchills. Jeez – you would have thought we
lived in Greenland. Hype and hysteria – spread over an hour broadcast, since if
they gave you the whole forecast at the 10 minute mark, you wouldn’t need to
hang around for the entire hour. Better to check the internet, then go to bed.

mike December 11, 2009 · 12:49 pm

These comments are harsh. Meteorology is unpredictable beyond basic
generalizations for the same reason climate change skeptics are still paid
credence by a minority.

Literally thousands of variable down to the square mile you live on effect our
weather and climate.

Oh, and George, when the prediction is for 70% rain it DOES NOT mean that there
is a 70% chance that it will (versus will not) rain. What it means is that 70%
of the broadcast area or zip code (if you look online) or whatever will receive
rain and 30% will not. The prediction is 100% (accuracy dependent on time until
the event – see below).

What I’ve frequently heard is that given current technology, any prediction
beyond 3 days time is 50% accurate at best, with each additional day drastically
reduced.

That weekend weather you hear on Monday morning – worthless.

Morris December 11, 2009 · 12:52 pm

The truly irksome thing to me is how both the forecasters and news anchors
uniformly seem to think that everybody always prefers warmer, drier weather, and
feel compelled to give emotional reactions to it, making subjective value
judgments about how much we’re going to love it or hate it, and especially how
we just can’t wait for the blessed deliverance of spring, instead of simply
appreciating the beauty of the cold season for what it is.

ACW December 11, 2009 · 12:55 pm

Meteorologists always over-predict on the assumption that no one would ever
complain that the weather turned out better than they expected. Trust the
Complaint Box to confound their expectations.

JR @ #6, we have a similar problem in the NJ suburbs. All they have to do is
HINT at the word “snow” and immediately the supermarkets are crammed with panic
buyers emptying the shelves. Every stray flake raises the spectre of the Donner
Party. (The solution, of course, is to stock up before the season sets in, which
we do.)

When I was growing up, Tex Antoine was using little pasteboard cartoons.

True, meteorologists are wrong about half the time, but that’s still a better
batting average than, say, economists.

d k Luke December 11, 2009 · 12:58 pm

The “storm” that so often is predicted during summer months from local weather
broadcasters very often heads up the Hudson Valley to Westchester and
Connecticutt leaving Long Island beaches bathing in sunlight while New Yorkers
who had planned to spend the day at the beach decide to stay home. Rarely do
they say where the rain will actually fall but in my experience from sunny Fire
Island I see those “storms”, not even touching mid to eastern Long Island,
rushing like witches with dark skirts across the western horizon on their way to
Riverdale and then Westport.

twc December 11, 2009 · 1:13 pm

The Freakonomics blog provided a quick look at weather accuracy (
//freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/how-valid-are-tv-weather-forecasts/
). The first commenter may be a little quick to dismiss this complaint–from the
blog:

The results were quite enlightening, as were some of the comments of the local
meteorologists and their station managers. Here a few of the quotes we received:

“We have no idea what’s going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out.”

“There’s not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation
takes precedence over accuracy.”

“All that viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big deal to
viewers.”

John Hackett December 11, 2009 · 1:24 pm

Very witty. I like a good snow storm but have been disappointed so often by
overblown forecasts that I no longer get my hopes up. And what about the way
these breathless snow forecasts are framed, namely, a prediction of a snowfall
range from an extremely small accumulation to a never-reached ‘as much as’
amount.. I pay attention to these things and about 99 times out of a 100 we get
that disappointing tiny accumulation.

Dn December 11, 2009 · 1:28 pm

Shut off the tube, open a window on the laptop.

Vi December 11, 2009 · 1:36 pm

mike, a 70% chance of rain doesn’t mean that 70% of the zip code or viewing area
will get rain.

It means that given all the conditions of this particular day (temperature,
humidity, etc) 70% of similar days on record had rain. The 70% is based on what
has happened in the past, not what will happen in the future.

Given that information, maybe you can be a little more forgiving of the
forecasts meteorologists make. They’re not claiming to know the future — they’re
basing it all on the data collected in the past. Maybe they could make that
clearer, but they never claim to be psychics.

Morris December 11, 2009 · 1:38 pm

A postscript to my previous comment (#12): In respect to temperatures, the word
“better” is not a synonym for “warmer.” Just give us the numbers, please!

WIEEI December 11, 2009 · 1:48 pm

Haze is the current term for air pollution. The pollution levels and particulate
charts have dissapeared into weather limbo. If they say it’s raining I look out
the window.

Bruce Atlas December 11, 2009 · 1:56 pm

For years, I have been saying that the purveyors af panic and panderers to
pandemonium who self identify as weather experts exagerate in the interests of
gaining TV ‘face time.’

I have never understood why a 1/2 of a 30 minute TV news program should be given
ober to weather forecasts which are generally unreliable.

Paul December 11, 2009 · 2:04 pm

Out here in “flyover country” if you don’t absolutely hammer the warnings into
the heads of idiots they’ll be out driving around on country roads on bald tires
with their dirty children searching for lottery tickets or cigarettes in a
blizzard. When the snow stops the sheriff has to yank their frozen corpses out
of the ditch and call the coroner. It’s all very expensive.
People here really don’t take warnings very seriously, so the newsfolks oversell
it.

SD December 11, 2009 · 2:08 pm

I agree wholeheartedly.

Although one aspect of the television reporting on any impending snow was
omitted.

Send a reporter out to the Home Depot on Queens Blvd to interview people exiting
the store with snow shovels or rock salt. Must ask question: “What do you think
about the big snow storm we are expecting.”

…now back to Bob in the studio.

Yesterdays Wine December 11, 2009 · 2:09 pm

30 to 40% accuracy? Well, let’s see if you did that well in baseball, for
instance, you’d be a hall-of-famer and in a 15 year career would earn about $300
million! Let’s hear it for overpaid people who have low percentages built into
their perceived excellence. Economists as someone else mentioned,
meteorologists, .250 hitters in baseball, doctors who prescribe antibiotics like
Tic-Tacs, the gang that projects budgets for almost any business or government
entity (Slightly different than economist.) I’m always astounded, for instance,
by the way the MTA introduces fare raises. The fare stays the same for 7 years,
let’s say. Inflation is roughly 4% per year. So, the deficit mounts, has to be
financed and forces us to borrow money that has to be serviced through interest
payments, raising operating expenses even more. Finally, after all this
wrangling, a huge fare increase is put in and everyone stomps his or her feet.
Why not just calculate every year how much the inflation rate has been and slap
it onto the metro card charge? If the fare was $2, then the next year it should
be $2.08 or 2.10…. etc. I know it seems off point, but I’m so tired of people
with lucrative jobs unable to produce. Ummm…. Wall Street geniuses of late
anyone? Look how they did and how much they have been paid. Off with all their
heads!

Bobby Jpe December 11, 2009 · 2:25 pm

Generally agree with the writer.
Attn: TV stations. Stop the stupidity of making the weather delivery children
into performers. They aren’t. Give it straight and brief. Stop wearing those
overly contasting stripe suits (Mr. G and Nick)and we dont need 3 uodates per
show, but at the same time and different per channel. Hey weather channel, do we
need to see the reporter bent over against the wind in a real storm. No one
should be outside.Tell the news, dont make it!


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