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March 2022


THE PACE OF ACCELERATING HOME PRICES SHOWS SIGNS OF SLOWING


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MonthYear-over-year Change in National Median Listing
Price2021-11-018.7%2021-10-018.6%2021-09-018.6%2021-08-018.7%2021-07-0110.3%2021-06-0112.4%2021-05-0115.1%2021-04-0115.9%2021-03-0111.5%2021-02-0112.2%2021-01-0113.3%2020-12-0113.7%2020-11-0112.7%2020-10-0111.7%2020-09-0111.2%2020-08-0110.2%2020-07-018.5%2020-06-015.4%2020-05-011.7%2020-04-011.1%2020-03-014.3%2020-02-013.8%2020-01-013.4%2019-12-012.7%2019-11-013.9%2019-10-014.8%2019-09-015.3%2019-08-016.2%2019-07-017.3%2019-06-018.3%2019-05-018.2%2019-04-016.6%2019-03-016.2%2019-02-017.7%2019-01-016.8%2018-12-017.7%2018-11-018.5%2018-10-017.8%2018-09-017.3%2018-08-017.3%2018-07-017.1%2018-06-017.2%2018-05-017.3%2018-04-018.4%2018-03-018.5%2018-02-017.7%2018-01-018.6%

In what may be a good sign for homebuyers, the rate of price growth began to
stabilize during the fourth quarter of 2021.Footnote1

Looking at the chart above, while year-over-year (YoY) home prices increased
nationwide at a record pace — rising 15.9% from April 2020 to April 2021 — they
moderated and steadied at around an 8.6% YoY growth rate from August through
November 2021, the latest figures available.Footnote1


CHANGING FACTORS IN LATE 2021

Nationally, further indicators of a cooling market in late 2021 included:

 * A longer home-selling timeline, rising steadily from 37 days in June to 45
   days in October;Footnote2
 * A more stable median home list price of $380,000, from August through
   November, down from a median price peak of $385,000 in June;Footnote3
 * A doubling of the number of homes with price reductions compared to a low in
   February;Footnote3 and
 * A steady, though modest, rise in interest rates from a historic low of 2.65%
   in JanuaryFootnote3 to 3.10% in NovemberFootnote2 on a 30-year, fixed-rate
   mortgage.

George Ratiu, director of economic research at Realtor.com®, summarizes the
volatility of 2021, stating that "Prices and sellers reached for the moon this
year. It looks like we are now about to move back to Earth." Bolstering the
hopes of prospective buyers, Mr. Ratiu continues, “For many buyers, particularly
those who have been frustrated and wondered when will they get a break, this is
the beginning of the market slowing down.”Footnote3


THE OUTLOOK AHEAD

The CoreLogic Home Price Index forecast, which largely mirrors the changes in
national median home prices, projects an "annual average rise in the national
index slowing from 15% in 2021 to 6% in 2022."Footnote4 Should this come to
pass, it will be music to the ears of many a homebuyer.

Contributing to this deceleratation, mortgage interest rates should rise slowly
this year, averaging around a half-percentage point increase from 2021, to
around 3.4% on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgageFootnote4 — which remains a
historically low figure.

According to Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at CoreLogic®, "We expect to see
a moderation in buyer demand as the erosion in affordability takes a toll."
However, with a larger influx of "new construction and existing owners
relocating, home sales are expected to rise to the largest number since 2006,"
which would amount to a 16-year high.Footnote4

While data on the national level is a strong measure of trends, regional and
local differences will continue to impact the availability of homes and pricing
in your area. “We’re going to see markets and prices move differently across the
geographies,” Mr. Ratiu also points out. “Local economies can make all the
difference in how local real estate performs.”Footnote3

1 Realtor.com, Residential listings database. Data dates: January 2018 to
November 2021, Data Pulled: 12/03/2021.

2 Moderating Prices Impede Sellers’ Market Advantage, National Association of
Realtors®, November 30, 2021.

3 Has the Housing Market Peaked? That May Depend on Where You Live,
Realtor.com®, Clare Trapasso, November 29, 2021.

4 2022 Housing Outlook, CoreLogic®, Frank Nothaft, December 2, 2021.


MAP4242040 | 01/2022




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