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Free Markets


IF SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP DEMAND IS HIGH, WHY DO WE NEED MORE SUBSIDIES?


COMMERCE SECRETARY GINA RAIMONDO SAYS MORE CHIP SUBSIDIES ARE NEEDED, EVEN
BEFORE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS DISTRIBUTED $52 BILLION OR MEASURED HOW
EFFECTIVE THAT SPENDING WAS.

Eric Boehm | 2.23.2024 11:00 AM

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(Mark Hertzberg/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom)

The Biden administration has yet to announce how it plans to spend the $52
billion in semiconductor manufacturing subsidies that Congress approved more
than 18 months ago.

But the administration is already laying the groundwork for another round of
taxpayer-funded subsidies for advanced computer chips—with an argument that
reveals how economically illiterate the whole effort has been all along.

"I suspect there will have to be—whether you call it Chips Two or something
else—continued investment if we want to lead the world," Commerce Secretary Gina
Raimondo said this week while speaking at an Intel corporate
event, Bloomberg reported. "Chips Two" is a reference to the CHIPS and Science
Act, that 2022 bill that authorized $52 billion in subsidies, a sizable chuck of
which is expected to find its way into Intel's pockets when the White House
announces its funding plans in the coming weeks.

Perhaps nothing better illustrates the way the government approaches issues than
throwing an arbitrary amount of money at a perceived problem, and then declaring
that more money will be needed to solve that problem even before the first pile
of money has been distributed or the usefulness of the spending measured.

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But the real kicker here is Raimondo's explanation for why more subsidies might
be necessary.

"She pointed to the computing demands of artificial intelligence, adding that
she has spoken with OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman, who's working to
secure US government approval for a massive venture to boost global
manufacturing of AI chips," Bloomberg explained. "'When I talk to him or other
customers in the industry, the volume of chips that they project they need is
mind-boggling,' she said."

What? The argument for more federal subsidies for semiconductors is that there
is suddenly a surge in demand for them? Is this a joke?

If it's not immediately clear why that argument is nonsense, think about it in
any context other than semiconductors. Imagine that there was a new technology
that ran on potatoes, and suddenly there was skyrocketing demand for potatoes.
Would that require a massive government subsidy program to produce more
potatoes, or would farmers suddenly have a huge incentive (independent of any
government scheme) to grow more potatoes?

In fairness, one of the main arguments for getting the government involved in
subsidizing semiconductor manufacturing is that advanced computer chips are not
exactly potatoes. Building a fabrication facility for high-end chips is a major
investment, the future is always somewhat uncertain, and companies like Intel
might be more willing to take that risk if they weren't shouldering the whole
cost. (Of course, they'll still be more than happy to collect the whole reward
when the risk pays off.)

What Raimondo said this week undermines that case for government intervention
too. If some of the most successful tech companies in America are telling
Raimondo that they expect to need to buy a lot more semiconductors in the coming
years, that should be a signal to Intel and other advanced chipmakers they can
safely invest in building out capacity for chip production (in the U.S. or
wherever it makes the most economic and strategic sense to do that) and rest
assured that their investments will pay off because their future products will
have buyers.



A more sensible industrial policy would look at the huge advances being made in
AI and chip manufacturing and conclude that there's no need for the government
to start picking winners and losers in what is clearly a robust, healthy
marketplace.

Besides, governments can juice demand by throwing money around, but they're not
very good at influencing the supply side of the equation—and that's where most
of the bottlenecks in chip manufacturing continue to exist. There are only a few
companies in the world, for example, with the technical skills to make the
machines used to make advanced semiconductors.

Think about potatoes again. Now imagine that there were only a few places on the
planet with the soil necessary to grow potatoes. Subsidizing potato production
would not solve that problem.

But once the government gets involved in subsidizing an industry, that industry
has a strong incentive to keep those subsidies flowing. We're already seeing
that, even before the CHIPS Act funds have been distributed. Earlier this month,
a spokesman for Intel told The Wall Street Journal that the company is slowing
construction on a new plant in Ohio while waiting to be showered with taxpayer
money.

It's foolish for the Biden administration to play along, but it appears eager to
do so. Demand for advanced semiconductors remains high, but unfortunately so too
does demand for taxpayer-funded handouts.

Start your day with Reason. Get a daily brief of the most important stories and
trends every weekday morning when you subscribe to Reason Roundup.

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Eric Boehm is a reporter at Reason.

Free MarketsFree TradeDepartment of CommerceArtificial IntelligenceGovernment
WasteGovernment SpendingFederal subsidiesSubsidiesCorporate WelfareBiden
AdministrationEconomics
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