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| Request a Free Trial Search MenuSign In HomeRegionsColumnsFeaturesVideosPodcastsBooksCalculatorsUkraine/RussiaContact Us Sign InRequest a Free Trial HomeRegionsColumnsFeaturesVideosPodcastsBooksCalculatorsUkraine/RussiaContact Us LIKE ROME, OIL DEMAND WON’T BE DESTROYED IN A DAY Signage for the CERAWeek energy conference is displayed at the entrance of the Hilton Americas-Houston, in Houston, Texas, U.S. March 9, 2022. Source: REUTERS/Sabrina Valle EMAIL A FRIEND Plese complete the form below. Send 18 Mar 2024 | By Robert Cyran Follow @rob_cyran Sack of cash. The question for the oil producers, investors and other energy participants attending CeraWeek, the industry’s big conference in Houston starting Monday, is when fossil fuel empires will be sacked, and how to cope. The hope among most, and belief among firms like Exxon Mobil, is that the shift away from oil won’t happen quickly. Past transitions occurred at a glacial pace. Historian Vaclav Smil points out it took 40 years for oil to go from 5% to 25% of the world’s primary energy supply, and 55 years for natural gas. Solar and wind’s share of primary energy consumption only reached 5% in 2018. Yet past transitions involved varying forms of combustion. Solar, wind and batteries are diverse technology plays, with R&D and scale delivering regular improvements and lower costs in multiple areas. Solar and wind’s share of electricity production is growing more quickly than past transitions. The adoption of electric cars is accelerating even faster, from about 2% of global car sales in 2020 to over 20% this year, according to Canalys Research. Participants deal with the prospect of oil’s death with a mix of denial, avoidance, bargaining and acceptance. Executives in Exxon Mobil and Chevron can seize the moment to talk about the massive deals they have in the works to buy Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess, respectively. European firms may reaffirm their plans for a post-oil future, which have so far been halfhearted. Saudi Arabia, trying to reinvent itself, has guests presenting on carbon markets and low-carbon fuels. Oil services company Baker Hughes is highlighting how to maximize the value of mature assets. So what to do? As in any dwindling land, oil emperors Exxon and Chevron are characteristically being defensive by striking takeovers. Deals to cut costs are helpful both now and when the retreat starts, ensuring a bigger piece of a shrinking market. But that decline is coming. Purchases to increase overall production, or investments in green power, carbon capture and other strategies, as European giants like Shell and BP have done, look riskier. That leaves the prospect of enriching the masses by paying back essentially all cash flow to investors. It may not be exciting, but it’s rewarding and easier than guessing whether building a bigger palace makes sense with barbarians on the horizon. CONTEXT NEWS CERAWeek, the annual energy conference sponsored by S&P Global, takes place in Houston from March 18 to March 22. SUBJECTS: CommoditiesCompanies & FundsEnergyOil & GasRenewable Energy REGIONS: AmericasUnited States of America READ MORE BY ROBERT CYRAN Apple has a cash problemGreen spending strain boosts infrastructure buyersTrustbusters target poor man’s John D. 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