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POWER BI-BERICHT

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SPP Day-Ahead On-Peak Map

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12.5.2023

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DAM on-pk LMP/MCC - 12/5

North Hub: $66.29/$20.72

South Hub: $35.79/-$7.64




The bullish MCCs for North Hub will relax tomorrow. The S3455-S3740 outage ended
early and the Cooper-Moore line is expected back today. Those lines back in
service will also see stronger northern wind, both MISO and SPP, as well as
milder temps in MN and the Dakotas. There could still be some S-N pressure but
the MCC should be much, much lower, even negative for the on-peak average.




South Hub is in bearish territory as Russett/Tupelo will drag on the price,
along with Osage-Webber. There are two bullish risks, though. Gracemont-Anadarko
is seeing strong flows tomorrow, as is Cimarron-Draper.




Northern congestion will feature more Leland-Logan risk compared to Charlie
Creek due to line outages. We also see risk for Towner-Bottlenose, which is
likely to go M2M with MISO. Rounding out the Dakotan constraints, watch for
Magic City in the RT with East Ruth serving as the proxy in the DAM. That risk
is highest in the evening hours when wind is ramping.




Another area that hasn't made our headlines lately is the Joplin, MO part of
SPP. Strong wind continues to bind up a handful of constraints in the
SPRM/Empire territory. Aurora-Reed Springs is a good candidate for the late
on-peak when wind is building and thermal gen will add pressure to the west-east
flows into AECI/Entergy. The tricky part is the potential shift or combination
with Marmaton-Neosho. That combo sees the top source for Aurora near the top
sink for Marmaton.




The SPP seven-day generator outage forecast is at 16.8GW. 48% of outages are
from natural-gas and 41% from coal.




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