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Home 2. Industries 3. Automobiles 4. Your Digital Self YOUR DIGITAL SELF OPINION: ELECTRIC VEHICLES HIT A PIVOT POINT AS BATTERY PRICES FALL AND GOVERNMENTS GET BEHIND THE NEW TECHNOLOGY Last Updated: Feb. 19, 2022 at 10:01 a.m. ET First Published: Feb. 17, 2022 at 8:44 a.m. ET By JURICA DUJMOVIC comments THE WINNERS AND LOSERS AREN’T SO CLEAR, AS TRANSITIONING TO EVS IS COSTLY AND COMPLICATED THE 2022 LUCID AIR. (CREDIT: LUCID) * Email icon * Facebook icon * Twitter icon * Linkedin icon * Flipboard icon * Print icon * Resize icon REFERENCED SYMBOLS Advertisement TSLA -3.66% GM -0.22% F -0.19% Your browser does not support the audio tag. Listen to article Length 6 minutes AD Loading advertisement... 00:00 / 05:46 1x This feature is powered by text-to-speech technology. Want to see it on more articles? Give your feedback below or email audiofeedback@marketwatch.com. thumb-stroke-mediumthumb-stroke-medium Sales estimates for electric vehicles suggest a breakthrough is at hand: According to some estimates, 20% of cars sold by 2025 will be electric. By 2030, that share could climb to 40%. This year will be pivotal for several reasons. First, the cost of batteries, the main driver behind electric car prices, is dropping quickly — 89% in the past 12 years. This is due to many factors, such as new technology, and large-scale and optimized production. Advertisement Second is the part governments play in the proliferation of EVs: Even if battery prices increase, governments will add pressure on carmakers to ramp up production by imposing harsher fleet emission standards, increasing carbon taxes and providing tax breaks and subsidies for EV buyers. Finally, a growing number of countries plans to outright ban sales of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, which will severely limit the market reach of manufacturers unwilling to make the transition. In fact, many of these factors convinced big-brand car makers to go full-on electric. Case in point: Jaguar. The company announced its plan to start producing only electric cars starting in 2025. Other companies going down the same route include Bentley (by 2030), GM (2035), Volvo (2030), Ford (2026), Volkswagen (2026), Toyota (2040), Mercedes-Benz (2040) and Audi (2030-35). More EVs on roads also means more vehicles on charging stations. And with more cars being made every day, the availability of charging infrastructure becomes a concern. Currently, the issue of running out of juice while driving an EV is tackled by upgrading battery pack technology and providing more charging hubs. MORE CHARGING STATIONS FUEL ADOPTION OF EVS In the U.K., the number of fast-charging devices grew by 50% between January and September 2021. Slow-charging devices have also grown, by 66%, in the same period. The U.K.’s largest gas-station operator, Motor Fuel Group, plans to ramp up those numbers in 2022, and several other infrastructure providers have made similar vows. But it’s not just the U.K. On average, the EU already offers at least five fast public chargers for every 100 kilometers (62 miles). While there are currently enough charging stations, their number should grow to accommodate the surge in EV production. According to the latest estimates, there should be 1.3 million public charging stations available in the EU by 2025 and 2.9 million by 2030. This should keep the number of EVs per charging station under 10, which is on par with a directive given by the EU-appointed commission. The U.S. has similar lofty plans to grow its own charging infrastructure. Under the “Biden-Harris Electric Vehicle Charging Action Plan,” $7.5 billion will be spent on EV infrastructure proliferation and increasing the number of chargers from fewer than 46,000 to 500,000. Although this is an ambitious goal, it’s nowhere near enough. By some estimates, at least 1 million of charging stations will be required to properly support the growing number of EVs in the country. Still, this acceleration in EV production isn’t without challenges, with disruptions in the supply chain being the most important one. Case in point: Volkswagen sold 16,742 ID.4 EVs in the U.S. last year, but the manufacturer laments this number could’ve been at least three times higher if not for production constraints in Europe. Furthermore, the company took more than 40,000 reservations for ID.4, so many buyers are still waiting for their electric car. This problem could be alleviated when Volkswagen opens a factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Advertisement As with any rapid change in any industry, there will be winners and losers — those who quickly accommodate to new market conditions and mastodons that are unable to keep the pace with the times. WINNERS AND LOSERS ACROSS THE WORLD One of the biggest winners is, of course, Tesla TSLA, -3.66%. The EV trailblazer is now valued at $1 trillion, and is on track to be bigger than General Motors GM, -0.22% in five years if GM doesn’t accelerate sales. Two companies that have taken a big chunk of the EV cake in Europe are Kia and Hyundai. Those brands are a rather common sight on the road, especially in Eastern Europe. It comes as no surprise that we will see a continued domination in years to come. What about the losers? Unsurprisingly, these are the very same names that promise a quick transition to EV-only: Mercedes-Benz, Ford F, -0.19% and Renault. All three companies lost market share last year and are working hard to offset that trend. While Mercedes and Ford have announced rapid electrification of their fleets, Renault is still largely oblivious — or simply in denial — of the global EV trend that’s well underway. Although it claimed that EVs will comprise 90% of its cars by 2030, this promise is given just for the European market, which constitutes mere 25% of Renault Group’s worldwide sales. Its other markets — the Middle East, Africa and South America — will be largely unaffected by the transition, with the majority of its offering being ICE vehicles. So the gun has been fired and the race is on. With progress happening at an accelerated pace with each passing year, we won’t have to wait too long to see who the real winners are. My money is on Tesla. How about you? Let me know in the comment section below. Advertisement PARTNER CENTER Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement MOST POPULAR Advertisement HERE’S WHY RETAIL INVESTORS WILL COME BACK TO CRYPTO, DESPITE FED RATE HIKES, SAYS CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT ETORO ‘THEY SAID WE NEED TO GIVE THEM MONEY’: MY HUSBAND’S FAMILY WANTS HIM TO PAY FOR A NEW CAR — AND THEY CALL ME A GOLD DIGGER! HOW DO WE STAND UP TO THEM? ‘IT PUT EVERYONE IN A WEIRD POSITION’: OUR WAITRESS SAID A 20% SERVICE FEE WAS ADDED TO COVER BENEFITS AND HEALTH INSURANCE, BUT THAT IT WAS NOT A TIP. IS THIS NORMAL? THESE TAX TRAPS COULD DERAIL YOUR EARLY RETIREMENT PLAN ‘PLEASE HELP!’ IT SEEMS LIKE I HAVE BEEN PAYING MY CHILD’S STUDENT LOAN FOREVER. HOW MUCH LONGER MUST I PAY IT OFF? Advertisement Advertisement READ NEXT READ NEXT BARRON'S: MUSK’S CANNABIS-THEMED TWITTER OFFER LOOKS HIGH BUT NOT WACKY Elon Musk is offering $54.20 a share for all of Twitter--–and you don’t need to work up a discounted cash flow analysis to see how he arrived at the price. MORE ON MARKETWATCH * Facebook parent Meta set to take nearly 50% cut from virtual sales — and Apple is calling it out * The end of one-chip wonders: Why Nvidia, Intel and AMD’s valuations have experienced massive upheaval * Barron's: Tech Stocks Slide, Banks Report Earnings—and What Else Is Happening in the Stock Market Today * Twitter will likely accept an Elon Musk buyout after 'many twists and turns,' Wedbush says ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jurica Dujmovic Jurica Dujmovic is a columnist for MarketWatch. He is a business publisher, consultant, designer and gamer. Follow him on Twitter @JuricaDujmovic. Community Guidelines • FAQs Advertisement PARTNER CONTENT PARTNER CONTENT Back to Top MarketWatch logoGo to the homepage Copyright © 2022 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. 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