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Submission: On April 22 via api from IE — Scanned from DE
Submission: On April 22 via api from IE — Scanned from DE
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Options
NDX 13,720.45 -278.08 -1.99%
A SUPERIOR ALTERNATIVE HEDGING STRATEGY WITH NDX OPTIONS
Contributor
Russell Rhoads, PhD, CFA
Published
Mar 9, 2022 3:59PM EST
*
*
*
*
ABSTRACT
COMPANIES THAT HAVE INTRODUCED THE WORLD TO THE DIGITAL AGE ARE WIDELY OWNED BY
INSTITUTIONS. IN THIS PAPER, WE LOOK AT HOW OPTIONS ON THE NASDAQ-100 OFFER
EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS FOR MANAGING RISK ASSOCIATED WITH A PORTFOLIO FOCUSING ON
THESE STOCKS. IN ADDITION, WE LOOK AT THE UNIQUE BEHAVIOR OF NDX OPTIONS AND THE
OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE SUPERIOR STRUCTURED OUTCOMES.
INTRODUCTION
The S&P 500 is considered the benchmark for stock market performance in the U.S.
while the Nasdaq-100 is a benchmark that measures performance of companies that
fit naturally into what is the new economy. For instance, the most exciting
areas for economic growth are associated with the information technology space
and this sector comprises around half of the capitalization of NDX. Technology
is also a large part of SPX, but it comprises less than 30%. Also, note in the
table below that the second largest component of NDX is Communication Services,
another area that offers exposure to the modern economic trends.
New economy stocks have been great outperformers over the past decade with the
total return of the NDX beating the SPX in eight of the past ten years. Even
though NDX went through a difficult period following the Internet Bubble
bursting in early 2000, the total return for NDX has slightly beaten that of the
SPX when measuring from the last day of 1999 through the end of 2021.
NDX vs. SPX Total Return By Year 2000 – 2021
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There is an academic argument that high returns are associated with elevated
volatility. Historically, NDX was much more volatile than the SPX. However, this
difference has narrowed over the past few years. The below chart shows realized
volatility by year for both indices.
NDX vs. SPX Realized Volatility By Year 2000 – 2021
The earlier years on this chart show a dramatic difference between NDX and SPX
realized volatility. From 2000 to 2002, the average realized volatility by year
for NDX was 43.23% while the same calculation for SPX was only 18.40%. Fast
forward to the most recent years and the average realized volatility for NDX is
17.47% versus 15.92% for SPX from 2019 to 2021. The average annual return over
this three-year period heavily favored NDX at 38.61% versus 26.20% for SPX.
Even though realized NDX volatility is only slightly higher than that of SPX,
the expected volatility as priced by NDX and SPX options remains slightly
elevated for at-the-money (ATM) NDX options when compared to SPX pricing. The
chart below uses Bloomberg’s measure of 30-Day ATM implied volatility to compare
expectations priced in by both markets.
The chart specifically shows the high and low (negative in a couple of cases)
along with the average spread by year. This has been trending higher over time
despite realized volatility differences narrowing. Even though NDX IV is
typically higher, NDX options are still appropriate for hedging purposes,
especially when using a spread to sell out-of-the-money (OTM) options to help
pay for protection. Later in this paper we will examine how NDX options have the
potential to offer more protection at a lower price (r even better credit) than
comparable SPX hedges.
NDX Seasonality
When compared to other broad based index option markets, the implied volatility
as indicated by NDX option pricing has a unique reaction to earnings season.
Typically, the top ten components of the Nasdaq-100 represent about half the
market capitalization of NDX. These specific stocks vary over time, however, a
majority of these stocks will report earnings near the end of January, April,
July, and October or the first month after each calendar quarter end. With a
large portion of the specific stocks reporting earnings in a consolidated
time-period, inflated expected volatility from each individual stock option
series influences the pricing of NDX options.
Comparing the relationship between the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VOLQ) and
Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) on a month-by-month basis is an efficient method of
highlighting the earnings season influence on NDX option prices. The following
chart shows the percent days VOLQ closed higher than VIX by month with earnings
months highlighted in light burgundy and the non- earnings months represented by
purple bars.
Percent Days VOLQ > VIX By Month 2014 - 2021
The long-term average (2014-2021) relationship between VOLQ and VIX results in
VOLQ closing at a premium to VIX 60.84% of days. This figure drops to 56.84%
during non-earnings months and rises to 70.34% during months where NDX
components report earnings. Also, all four earnings months stand out as having a
majority of days where VOLQ closes at a premium to VIX.
Another impact of earnings shows up in the relationship between the implied
volatility of Nasdaq-100 components and NDX index options. The following chart
shows the average spread between the average 30-day implied volatility for the
largest ten NDX components and NDX index options for strikes 95%, 100%, and 105%
of the price of the underlying securities.
Average Component IV Minus NDX IV By Month 2014 - 2021
Again, this chart segments months to show the difference between earnings and
non-earnings months. Note the largest spread, determined by subtracting NDX
implied volatility from the average for the large NDX components, is widest
during the earnings months of January, April, July, and October. Also,
volatility priced in at the 105% price level, representing 5% out of the money
to the upside, is consistently wider than that of the 100% and 95% levels.
This breakdown of component versus NDX index implied volatility is of the
greatest interest to dispersion traders. A dispersion trade will take a position
in options on an index and an offsetting position in options on components of
the index. This strategy has become more popular among sophisticated derivative
traders in the past few years.
On a daily basis more put than call options trade on broad based indexes which
is unique to this part of the listed option markets. The reason for this
increased use of puts, when compared to other markets, is index options are a
cheap and efficient method of hedging an equity portfolio. Many managers
automatically default to SPX options, but this may not be the best choice to
hedge an equity portfolio.
In mid-2020, UBS published a list of equities that were most widely owned by
institutions. Those companies appear in the table below.
Several of the names appearing on this list are large Nasdaq-100 components.
Also, the correlation between an equal weighted portfolio holding this group of
stocks and NDX was 0.96, slightly higher than a correlation of 0.94 between this
portfolio and the S&P 500. More importantly, during 2020, this portfolio’s
performance closely mirrored that of the Nasdaq-100 while there was a definitive
divergence between the S&P 500 and the institutional portfolio. The following
chart shows the daily performance for both indices and the institutional
portfolio.
SPX / NDX / Top Institutional Holdings Portfolio Daily 2020
Structured Outcomes
Creating a structured outcome using options is another use that continues to
gain traction. NDX options consistently price in higher volatility than the
comparable broad based index option market, which makes them ideal for creating
a spread with a structured outcome. The following two examples compare combining
a long portfolio with a short call that is 5% out of the money, long put that is
5% out of the money and a short put farther out of the money that will take in
enough premium for the trade to be implemented at a near zero cost.
For example, on June 30, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 4297.50. A portfolio
manager holds an S&P 500 portfolio and is concerned about the second half of
2021. They decide to implement a zero cost hedge using SPX options expiring on
Dec 17, standard December expiration. The specific strategy sells the SPX Dec
4500 Call for 72.65, buys a SPX Dec 4075 Put for 125.15, and completes the trade
by selling the SPX Dec 3575 Put for 52.95 with the result being a small credit
of 0.45.
On the same date, a portfolio manager who has exposure to the Nasdaq-100 is also
concerned about the second half of 2021. With NDX at 14554.80 the manager sells
the NDX Dec 15275 Call for 450.60, buys the NDX 13875 Put for 562.15, and
completes the trade by selling the NDX 10725 Put for 111.70 resulting in a
credit of 0.15. The following table summarizes both trades.
Both hedges look similar until digging into the respective strike prices for the
puts sold to cover the cost of the transaction. Each short put dictates the
amount of downside coverage the managers receive from these trades. The long put
will protect against losses greater than 5%, but that protection only covers
losses through the short strike. The short SPX put has a strike price of 3575.
This is about 16.8% lower than where the S&P 500 was at the end of June. The
short NDX put has a strike price of 10725, 26.3% lower than where NDX was on
June 30. The NDX version of this hedge gives the manager almost 10% more
downside protection that the comparable SPX version. The payoff diagrams below
compare the two strategies if held to expiration.
One alternative to the example above might involve selling a higher strike NDX
put to match the protection offered by the SPX hedge. The short put strike in
the SPX hedge is 16.8% lower than where the market was trading. The closest NDX
strike price to this level is 12100 and the NDX Dec 12100 Put is at 227.35.
Selling this put, buying the NDX Dec 13875 Put for 562.15 and selling the Dec
15275 Call results in a credit of 115.80 or about 0.8% of the NDX level on June
30.
Finally, in this example, we explored the pricing for a hedge that allows 7.5%
NDX upside instead of 5%. This transaction would sell the NDX Dec 15650 Call for
315.80 and once again purchase the NDX Dec 13875 Put for 562.15. To complete the
trade that allows 7.5% upside the NDX Dec 12250 Put is sold for 245.95 resulting
in a cost of 0.40. The result of this trade is downside protection between down
5% and 15.6%, but allowing for more upside than the SPX trade by selling a
farther out of the money call. The following graphic shows the payoff at
expiration for these two alternatives.
When we adjust the short put strike for a loss of 16.8%, matching the SPX
example, there is a bit more upside due to the credit of 115.80 received when
implementing the trade. The other alternative allows 7.8% of upside and protects
against a loss of down about 5% to 15.8%. Recall, the realized NDX volatility
has been comparable to SPX in the past few years, but despite this more upside
is available using NDX options than SPX options to hedge a portfolio.
Although this example shows a low-cost hedge, this type of spread is common with
structured products that limit potential profits, but also mitigate losses.
These strategies in an ETF format mostly use SPX options, but NDX does offer a
superior alternative due to higher out of the money implied volatility on both
the upside and downside relative to market prices.
The Nasdaq-100 components represent companies that are on the cutting edge of
technology and economic growth. Many portfolio managers are overweighting these
type of companies due to the promise of continued outperformance. NDX options
are the best vehicles for managers to hedge or speculate on the specific outlook
for these type of firms.
ABOUT EQDERIVATIVES
EQDerivatives is the premier provider of volatility derivatives and alternative
risk premia news, research and event content for investors, portfolio managers
and service providers. We connect and educate the leading thinkers in the space
globally by delivering the latest strategies from the practitioners buying and
structuring investments. EQD’s data reports are recognized as the definitive
source of market intelligence across derivatives markets, quantitative investing
and ESG. Through a curated network of portfolio managers, execution traders,
CIOs and heads of asset allocation at institutional investors, EQD can map
global markets and products through the lens of the buyside.To learn more,
visit https://eqderivatives.com/research/derivatives-data.
COPYRIGHT EQDERIVATIVES, INC. 2022.
Content published by EQDerivatives, Inc. may not be copied or otherwise
reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated,
redistributed or resold, or stored for subsequent use for any commercial
purpose, in whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever,
by any person without EQDerivatives’ prior written consent.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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RUSSELL RHOADS, PHD, CFA
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Russell Rhoads is a highly regarded strategist, educator and consultant – among
other things he is perhaps best known as the author of Trading VIX Derivatives,
the textbook in the space.
Read Russell Rhoads' Bio
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