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BANKNIFTY
49469.75 (0.48%)
BSESENSEX
74966.65 (0.48%)
FINNIFTY
22099.70 (1.03%)
NIFTY
22769.80 (0.54%)
NIFTYIT
33200.90 (-0.01%)
NIFTYMIDCAP100
51243.00 (0.25%)
NIFTYNEXT50
66355.00 (0.52%)
NIFTYPHARMA
19201.40 (0.40%)
NIFTYSMALL100
17069.30 (0.29%)
AJANTPHARM
2446.80 (9.53%)
BAJFINANCE
7366.00 (7.02%)
BHEL
307.85 (5.18%)
BAJAJFINSV
1687.65 (4.47%)
HINDZINC
448.95 (3.90%)
PRESTIGE
1454.00 (3.79%)
SHREECEM
25565.05 (2.97%)
CHOLAFIN
1339.15 (2.88%)
ONGC
290.60 (2.76%)
MRF
130256.00 (-2.69%)
ESCORTS
3406.05 (-2.12%)
APOLLOTYRE
503.25 (-1.97%)
AIAENG
3718.00 (-1.65%)
CUMMINSIND
3260.10 (-1.33%)
PHOENIXLTD
3091.90 (-1.33%)
JSWENERGY
630.00 (-1.29%)
LLOYDSME
731.65 (-0.93%)
BHARTIHEXA
871.00 (-0.89%)

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Previous

MARKET OPENS HIGHER, COAL INDIA'S NET PROFIT RISES 25.8% YOY TO RS 8682.2 CRORE
IN Q4

Nifty 50 opens in the green after rising around 110 points in the pre-opening
session, taking cues from the Gift Nifty. On Thursday, Indian indices closed
higher, with the Nifty 50 closing at 22,648 points. FIIs sold equity worth Rs
964 crore, while DIIs bought equity worth Rs 1,352 crore respectively in Indian
markets on the same day. Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 open in the
green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Auto and Nifty Energy open higher
than Thursday’s closing levels. Nifty IT opens higher tailing the tech-heavy
Nasdaq 100 closing 1.3% higher on Thursday. Most major Asian indices trade in
the green, except for China’s Shanghai Composite trading lower. On Thursday, US
indices closed higher, with the S&P; 500 rising by 0.9% and Dow Jones closing
0.8% higher. Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for April declined to 45.7 against
estimates of 45.6. Coal India's Q4FY24 net profit grows by 25.8% YoY to Rs
8682.2 crore, helped by lower raw material and employee benefit costs. However,
revenue declines by 1.9% YoY to Rs 37,410.4 crore. It appears in a screener of
stocks where analysts upgraded their recommendation or target price in the past
quarter. Markets rise on early trading, Nifty 50 was trading at 22,769.75
(121.6, 0.5%), BSE Sensex was trading at 74,991.20 (380.1, 0.5%) while the
broader Nifty 500 was trading at 21,195.40 (111.8, 0.5%). Market breadth is
ticking up strongly. Of the 1,844 stocks traded today, 1,437 were gainers and
361 were losers. Riding High: Largecap and midcap gainers today include Bajaj
Finance Ltd. (7,322.80, 6.4%), Bajaj Finserv Ltd. (1,709.35, 5.8%) and Hindustan
Zinc Ltd. (446.70, 3.4%). Downers: Largecap and midcap losers today include
Coforge Ltd. (4,568.75, -8.4%), MRF Ltd. (1,31,400, -1.8%) and JSW Energy Ltd.
(630.40, -1.2%). BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages 27 stocks made 52 week
highs, Stocks touching their year highs included - Ajanta Pharma Ltd. (2,480.65,
11.0%), Ashok Leyland Ltd. (204.45, 1.5%) and BASF India Ltd. (4,017.80, 0.1%).
10 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Bajaj Finance Ltd.
(7,322.80, 6.4%) and Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd. (98.70, 3.9%). 8 stocks
slipped below their 200 SMA including Ceat Ltd. (2,531.20, -3.5%) and CIE
Automotive India Ltd. (478.80, -1.7%).

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CHART OF THE WEEK: THE BIGGEST MISSES BY INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSTS OVER THE PAST
YEAR

Retail investors often rely on analysts to navigate the ups and downs of
financial markets and help them spot potential winners. But predicting stock
prices is tough. Many things can go wrong – such as a worse than expected
monsoon (which hurt Deepak Fertilisers) or a regulatory move against a company
(RBI vs PayTM). This Chart of the Week takes a look at Nifty 500 stocks over the
past year, and compares their actual performance to the Forecaster share price
estimate from analysts one year ago, in April 2023. We have selected stocks
where analysts made the biggest misses, whose share price performance diverged
the most from the 12 month forecast in April 2023. Asia’s oldest exchange stock
leads the rally BSE, formerly the Bombay Stock Exchange, rose 518.1% in the past
year, compared to Forecaster’s 12-month upside estimate of 17.8% in April 2023.
The exchange’s revenue in Q3FY24 has grown 76.1% YoY to Rs 431.4 crore, while
its net profit during the same period went up by 109.5% YoY to Rs 108.2 crore.
These improvements were primarily driven by market share gains in the
derivatives segment. The exchange's strategic decision to shift the expiry day
of their derivatives contracts, such as Sensex and Bankex, from Thursday to
Friday, and subsequently to Monday for Bankex, has contributed significantly to
its increased market share. Capital markets company, Anand Rathi Wealth has also
benefited from the rising interest in the Indian equity market among the
domestic as well as international investor community. The stock has risen 365.8%
in the past year, beating the Forecaster estimates of 24.7% by a huge margin.
The wealth manager’s assets under management stood at Rs 59,351 crore in FY24,
up 52% compared to Rs 38,993 crore at the end of FY23. PSUs give outsized
returns in FY24 The S&P; BSE PSU Index has gained 97.3% in the past year, as per
Trendlyne Technicals. This rise of the PSU index was backed by a government
capex push of Rs 10 lakh crore. These and other government initiatives are a big
boost to the infrastructure sector, and this is reflected in the share prices of
PSU stocks. In the Union Budget of 2023-24, the Indian Railways received a
capital outlay of Rs 2.4 lakh crore. Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC)
rose 460.6% in the past year, compared to the Forecaster estimate of 24.8% at
the start of FY24. This Navratna PSU borrows funds from financial markets to
fund the acquisition/creation of assets that are leased out to the Indian
Railways. The rise came mostly after the government announced plans to boost
Indian Railways by introducing high-speed trains like Vande Bharat and dedicated
freight corridors. Similarly, another PSU operating in the construction and
engineering industry, Ircon International also benefited from the government's
plans to lay dedicated freight corridors. This company has an order book of Rs
29,400 crore, with 72% of it coming from the railways, 21% from roads, and
remaining from other sectors. With promising revenue visibility for the upcoming
years, Ircon has given returns of 296.8% in the past year beating Forecaster’s
estimate of (16.1%) in April ’23. Erratic, weak monsoon hurts Deepak Fertilisers
and UPL Commodity chemical manufacturer Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals has
gained only 2.3% in the past year, compared to Forecaster’s 86% estimated in
April ’23. This moderation in its share price was mainly because the company has
seen consistent underperformance in sales in FY24, with profits declining in its
fertilisers segment. This was mainly due to weak and erratic monsoons over the
past year. In Q3FY24, the company’s revenue declined 33.1% YoY to Rs 1,863.8
crore, while its net profit declined 76.9% YoY to Rs 57.6 crore. Looking at its
profitability in the past three quarters, the company in its fertilizers segment
reported a net profit of Rs 42.3 crore in Q2 and reported a net loss of Rs 68.7
crore and Rs 0.8 crore in Q1 and Q3 respectively. Similarly, agrochemical
company UPL also posted a net loss of Rs 1,217 crore in Q3FY24, compared to a
profit of Rs 1,087 crore in Q3FY23. This resulted in a decline of 29.1% in the
past year, contrary to Forecaster’s estimated upside of 38.3%. Adani Energy &
Rajesh Exports disappoint analysts the most Adani Energy Solutions, an electric
utilities firm, saw a significant decline in its share price following the
release of the Hindenburg report on January 24 last year. The report accused the
Adani group of manipulating stock prices, which adversely affected investor
confidence in the company. Adani Energy also saw a 9.5% year-on-year decrease in
net profit to Rs 1,137 crore. This led to the stock rising marginally by 7.1%,
missing Forecaster’s estimates of 229.2% upside, predicted at the start of FY24.
Gems and Jewellery company, Rajesh Exports declined 43.1% in the past year,
contrary to Forecaster’s estimated upside of 97.2% in April ’23. The company is
reportedly involved in various compliance issues, including instances of missing
documents during earnings filings, which were further compounded by declining
revenues. Their net profit for Q3FY24 slumped 97% YoY at Rs 12.4 crore.
According to Trendlyne’s Technicals, Rajesh Exports fell to a 5-year low at Rs
261 on March 28, 2024. One97 Communications, an internet software and services
firm, faced a major setback following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)
directive on January 31. The RBI ordered Paytm Payments Bank to cease banking
services due to persistent non-compliance concerns. The stock has been
stabilizing after its Founder & CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma resigned from the
Payments Bank board. However, the company’s share price has gone down 42.1% in
the past year, compared to Forecaster’s estimated upside of 42.2% in the
starting of the previous fiscal.

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5 STOCKS TO BUY FROM ANALYSTS THIS WEEK - APRIL 29, 2024

1. Welspun Living: Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on this textiles company
with a target price of Rs 181. This indicates an upside of 19.3%. In Q4FY24, the
company’s net profit rose by 16.4% YoY to Rs 146 crore, and its revenue
increased 19.2% YoY to Rs 2,616.7 crore. Analysts at Sharekhan are positive as
the company stands to benefit from India signing a free trade agreement (FTA)
with the UK, which will help boost revenue in the long term. Management has
given cautious guidance for the near term given the geopolitical tensions.
However, the analysts are confident of long-term growth prospects due to large
opportunities in the export markets, entry into the home textile segment, and
benefits from the ‘China + 1’ strategy. Analysts at Sharekhan forecast a 10-12%
revenue growth in FY25 driven by fashion towels and flooring segments, coupled
with capacity additions. They maintain EBITDA margin guidance at 15-15.5% for
FY25. 2. Nestle India: Axis Direct maintains a ‘Buy’ call on this packaged foods
manufacturer with a target price of Rs 2,880, indicating an upside of 14.8%. In
Q4FY24, the company’s profit increased 12.4% YoY to Rs 934.2 crore and its
revenue grew by 8.8% YoY. It reported EBITDA margins of 25.7%, up 289 basis
points YoY. Analysts Preeyam Tolia and Suhanee Shome say, “Nestle delivered
resilient all-round performance, driven by growth across all categories, with a
healthy balance in product mix, pricing, and volume growth.” Tolia and Shome are
positive about the company due to its efforts toward rural penetration and
premiumization in its core categories, and differentiated product launches by
adding new categories like Nespresso and Purina Pet Care. They believe the
firm’s direct-to-customer platform and its focus on a fast-growing nutraceutical
portfolio will help it increase demand. They expect Nestle sales and profit to
grow at 13% and 18% CAGR respectively over FY24-25. The analysts are also
optimistic about Nestle’s joint venture with Dr Reddy’s to launch a nutritional
portfolio. 3. Hatsun Agro Products: ICICI Securities upgrades this packaged
foods manufacturer to a ‘Buy’ call with a target price of Rs 1,190. This
indicates an upside of 8.3%. In Q4FY24, the company’s net profit rose by 108.7%
YoY to Rs 52.2 crore and its revenue increased 14.4% YoY to Rs 2,049 crore.
Analysts Aniruddha Joshi, Manoj Menon, Karan Bhuwania, and Nilesh Patil are
optimistic due to its strong volume-led revenue growth and no price hikes in the
past year. The analysts noted that the company reported 10-quarter high gross
margins of 30.7% on the back of deflationary trends in raw material prices. The
analysts expect margin expansion to continue in FY25 due to lower milk prices,
higher revenue share of ice cream, accumulation of low-priced inventory, and
improved capacity utilisation at the Solapur and Govindapur facilities. They
estimate EBITDA margin to be 12.1% in FY25 compared to 11.3% in FY24. The
company has introduced two chocolate brands, Hanobar and Havia in FY24 which
analysts believe to be margin and value accretive in the medium-term. 4. HDFC
Asset Management: KRChoksey maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on this asset management
company with a target price of Rs 4,235, indicating an upside of 12.3%. In
Q4FY24, the company’s net profit increased 43.8% YoY to Rs 540.8 crore, and its
revenue went up by 33.5% YoY to Rs 851.3 crore. Analyst Unnati Jadhav is upbeat
as assets under management went up 39.1% YoY to Rs 60,730 crore driven by a
higher tilt toward equity-oriented assets. In FY24, the company expanded its
product offerings by launching five new funds. Also, it has enhanced its passive
front by launching five index funds and two ETFs. According to the management,
the employee cost for FY24 increased by 13.0% YoY as it included an ESOP cost of
Rs 47 crore. However, Jadhav is optimistic as management expects ESOP costs to
reduce in FY25 to Rs 20 crore. At the same time, she believes that the company
will continue to invest in its digital infrastructure to support its
distribution partners. In FY25-26, Jadhav expects revenue and profit CAGR of
21.5% and 19.7% respectively. 5. Patel Engineering: Hem Securities initiates a
‘Buy’ call on this construction and engineering company with a target price of
Rs 80. This indicates an upside of 26.2%. The analyst Mudit Jain believes the
firm’s order book of Rs 19,134 crore and its book-to-bill ratio of 4.3X provide
multi-year revenue visibility. Jain says, “Patel Engineering being the leader in
hydroelectric EPC projects is expected to get a good amount of orders in this
space.” The firm has 42 hydropower projects with an aggregate capacity of 18,034
MW under construction. He believes that around 27,000 MW of hydropower projects
will be announced in the coming years and expects the company to win major
orders from this pipeline. Jain notes that the order inflow was muted during the
quarter mainly due to the Lok Sabha elections. However, the management is
confident that order awarding will be robust post elections. They have guided
for 15-20% growth in the order book for FY25. The analyst expects the small-cap
company to post decent numbers going forward on the back of increased execution,
and expects order inflows to increase. Note: These recommendations are from
various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne. (You can find all
analyst picks here)

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INDIA IS IGNORING A CRITICAL PIECE OF ITS GROWTH STORY | STOCKS WHERE PROMOTERS
CUT THEIR STAKE THIS QUARTER

Recently a friend made a guilty, late-night Swiggy food order. The order got
marked as delivered but nothing arrived. Hungry and frustrated, she contacted
Swiggy and got a refund. But an hour later, a neighbour knocked on her door and
handed her the parcel, which had been accidentally left outside his apartment.
There was no option to reverse the refund on the Swiggy app. The next day, a
well-spoken young man turned up at her door in a panic. It was the Swiggy
delivery person - he had been penalized the refund amount (Rs. 500). She gave
him the money but was struck by his anxiety. This was money, he said, that he
did not have. An amount that was small for her - a manager at Titan - was a lot
for him. The question for us is why there are so many like him, and so few like
her. We see many young Indians working difficult, low-paying jobs in delivery,
logistics, construction. This election, PM Narendra Modi is pitching to voters
for another term. He insists that he is the best choice for a young,
aspirational country. Some of the successes the government claims are indeed
very real. Since 2014, India has seen 54,000 kilometres of new national highways
built. The number of Indians taking flights has doubled to 200 million in the
last decade. The government has invested in both physical and digital
infrastructure, with flyovers, metro lines, electrification, direct cash
transfers, UPI, and telecom connectivity. It's a big deal for a country that had
become used to potholes and power cuts. But even with this progress, there are
many questions. In the recent Lokniti-CDS survey of 10,000 voters across 19
Indian states, unemployment was the top worry for 27%, and 62% said that finding
a job had become even harder in the past five years. India's unemployment rate,
which hovers around 8% according to the private institution CMIE, is higher than
other Asian economies at a comparable development stage. We are often referred
to as a young country that will be the 'world's next workforce'. But our youth
boom is challenging India's policy makers: how are we going to provide these
hundreds of millions of young people with jobs, and add to India's productivity
and growth? In this week's Analyticks: Youth boom, yes. Job boom, no: India
needs to ramp up on job creation, fast Screener: Promoters selling stakes in
their companies in the latest quarter A youthful country, looking for work When
tourists visit India, they often remark on how visibly young the country looks.
The median age of Indians is 29, compared to 39 in the US and 40 in China.
Nearly half of our population is under the age of 25. India's youth is not
evenly spread out across the country. Many of India's young people are now in
the north. Over the last two decades, a big shift has happened in the Indian
economy - the south and west of the country, which have long been the main
drivers of growth, have grown older. Population shifts put more young people in
poorer states The south and west of India still dominate in GDP contribution to
the economy, and in GDP per capita. The Hindi heartland states, which have the
youngest populations (UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan) have a low
industrial base, making this a low GDP-per-capita region. Young people in the
poorer states also have to deal with weaker educational infrastructure,
resulting in low education levels. For example, nearly half of Tamil Nadu’s
18-to-23-year-olds are in higher education, compared with 17% in Bihar. And
while more Indians than ever before are finishing school, recruiters are finding
major quality problems while hiring, with learning deficits that make many
unemployable. The youth unemployment rate for Indians who cannot read or write
is 3.4%. But the unemployment rate is 6X more for those who have completed
secondary education (18.4%), and 9X more for college graduates (29.1%). A
digital skills survey showed large percentages of Indians unable to complete
basic digital tasks. At present, 83% of India's unemployed are young people, and
90% of workers are in informal work. States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan
and MP have even higher unemployment levels - in Rajasthan for example, youth
unemployment is estimated at 30.2%. The result of this is 3,700 PhD holders,
5,000 graduates and 28,000 postgraduates applying for 62 posts of “peon” in the
Uttar Pradesh Police Department. To avoid a crisis, this needs to change fast.
India's government sector employs only 5% of the population, so private job
creation is key. In addition to building up our manufacturing base, India is
providing subsidies to large companies through efforts like PLI schemes. But it
needs to do more for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are labour
intensive and job creators, but were hit hard by demonetization in 2016 and the
pandemic in 2020. But the problem is not just in the supply of jobs, but also
the quality of people looking for work. So most of all, India needs to take a
U-turn in its school and health policies, and raise funding here. This is
crucial to build the innovators and entrepreneurs who create jobs, and the high
skilled workers who attract investment. Foreign investment has lots of countries
competing for it right now - India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia - and it will
go where there is high-quality human capital. If we don't focus on education and
health, we are doing India's youth a great disservice, condemning them to bad
schools and indifferent jobs. But we will have to act quickly. Because the youth
dividend, as China and the US already know, doesn't last long. Screener: Stocks
with reduced promoter holding in Q4FY24 With the end of the last quarter of
FY24, we take a look at stocks where promoters sold the most stakes during the
quarter. This screener shows stocks that saw a decline in promoter holding over
Q4FY24. There may be many reasons for a drop in promoter holdings, but investors
often see it as signalling a lack of confidence in future growth. So promoter
sales can trigger selling from other investors. Promoters may also sell their
stake to earn profits when shares have risen sharply. The screener is dominated
by banking & finance, software & services, realty, metals & mining and
pharmaceuticals & biotechnology. Major stocks that appear in the screener are
Whirlpool of India, Aavas Financiers, Swan Energy, Suven Pharmaceuticals, Shyam
Metalics and Energy, NLC India, InterGlobe Aviation and Samvardhana Motherson
International. Whirlpool of India’s promoters sold a 24% stake in the company
during Q4FY24, the most among the Nifty 500 index. This takes the company’s
promoter holding down to 51% in Q4FY24. The promoters plan to use the proceeds
from the sale to repay a $500 million term loan. The sold shares were bought by
mutual funds as they invested in a 21% stake in the company. SBI Small Cap Fund
bought a 9.7% stake, the most among other mutual funds, in the company. The
company’s stock price has underperformed the consumer electronics industry by
7.1 percentage points in the past quarter, despite rising by 15.8% in the same
period. You can find more screeners here.

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FIVE INTERESTING STOCKS TODAY - APRIL 26, 2024

1. Macrotech Developers (Lodha): This realty company hit its all-time high of Rs
1,309.5 on Thursday before falling by 1.3% in today’s session. Its Q4FY24
results showed revenue growing by 24.8% YoY while profit fell 10.6% YoY to Rs
665.5 crore. Profit declined due to a rise in the cost of projects and increased
depreciation & amortization expenses. Despite the fall, it beat Trendlyne
Forecaster’s net profit estimate by 45.6% and revenue estimates by 9.6%. It
reported a 340 bps growth in EBITDA margin to 33.4%. Lodha achieved its
estimated FY24 pre-sales growth of 20% and posted pre-sales of Rs 14,520 crore.
Its pre-sales jumped 40% YoY in the quarter to Rs 4,230 crore and collections
grew 20%. The Mumbai-based company’s business is focused in Tier-1 cities in
Maharashtra, and the Mumbai region contributed 61.6% of its pre-sales while Pune
contributed 24.5%. The firm is now diversifying its focus toward the south, and
Bengaluru contributed around 8% of the pre-sales. The management expects to
advance its ‘expansion stage’ in Bengaluru. On the back of its strong operating
cash flow generation and its recently raised Rs 3,300 crore via QIP, Macrotech
Developers reduced its debt by 55% to Rs 3,010 crore, less than 0.2X the equity.
Managing Director Abhishek Lodha said, “The sharp reduction in net debt has
happened alongside the addition of new projects worth Rs 20,300 crore. This
enhanced financial strength will give us the opportunity to accelerate margin
and top-line growth.” The company has targeted a 20% sales booking CAGR over
FY24-26, implying bookings worth Rs 21,000 crore in FY26. The firm appears in a
screener for stocks with low debt. ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Hold’ on
Macrotech Developers based on its strong launch pipeline and new project
additions. The brokerage is however cautious due to its higher-than-expected
price growth. Over the past year, the company’s share price has grown by 167.5%,
outperforming its industry by 26.8 percentage points. 2. Axis Bank: This banking
& finance company surged 6% on Thursday following the announcement of CEO and
Managing Director Amitabh Chaudhry's term extension by three years till December
31, 2027. Chaudhry, who joined the bank in January 2019 after leading HDFC
Standard Life Insurance for nine years, is increasingly seen as instrumental for
the bank's growth trajectory. The bank released its quarterly and annual results
this week, which aligned with or beat estimates across all fronts. In FY24, Axis
Bank reported a 22% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 72,336 crore, slightly
exceeding Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 1.7%. The bank's net profit for
the fiscal year stood at Rs 24,861 crore, surpassing estimates by 4%. Its profit
in FY24 is not comparable to the same in FY23 because of the acquisition of
Citibank India's consumer banking business in March 2023. The company shows up
in a screener of stocks with increasing revenue every quarter for the past eight
quarters. Additionally, the bank's board approved a fundraising plan of Rs
55,000 crore, with Rs 35,000 crore to be raised through debt and the remaining
Rs 20,000 crore through equity. This capital infusion aims to strengthen the
bank's financial position and support future growth efforts. Commenting on the
results, Amitabh Chaudhry said, “In FY24, we relentlessly focused on our key
priority areas - Bharat Banking, Digital and Sparsh (our customer obsession
program), I believe we were also nimble in picking up some enticing new
opportunities that came our way.” He also highlighted the progress in
integrating Citi's operations, which will complete within the next six months.
ICICI Securities reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on Axis Bank. They are optimistic as
the bank posted an improvement in net interest margin by 5 bps QoQ to 4.6%,
contrary to their expectation of a decline. With a target price of Rs 1,280,
Axis Bank presents offers a potential upside of 13.2%. 3. Persistent Systems:
This IT consulting & software company has fallen 11.6% over the past week. This
comes after its Q4FY24 EBIT missed Trendlyne’s forecaster estimates by 4.2%. The
EBIT margin flatlined at 14.5% as margin expansion was offset by lower resource
utilisation, higher subcontractor costs and travel costs. The company’s
management gave a flat margin guidance for FY25. Sandeep Kalra, the CEO
acknowledged the weak numbers, and said, “We will be working towards improving
utilization, onsite-offshore mix, and other operational efficiencies to achieve
our medium-term target of improving margins by 200-300 basis points over the
next 3 years”. In Q4FY24, Persistent Systems’ net profit grew 1% QoQ to Rs 315.3
crore, driven by lower finance costs. Its revenue also increased 3.7% QoQ to Rs
2,590.5 crore, led by growth in its BFSI (which constitutes around 31% of its
total revenue) and healthcare (24% of the revenue pie). The software, hi-tech,
and emerging industries (45.1% of the revenue) weakened during the quarter. Both
net profit and revenue however, beat estimates. The company has outperformed its
larger IT peers in revenue growth. For instance, Infosys reported a 2.3% QoQ
degrowth in revenue during the quarter, while TCS’ was up 1.1% QoQ. In terms of
geographies, North America and India revenue grew by 4% and 4.5% QoQ while
Europe declined 9.3% QoQ. In contrast, Infosys’ North America revenue declined
by 2.2% QoQ. During the quarter, Persistent’s total contract value (TCVs) stood
at Rs 44.8 crore. The company also highlighted that there has been no deal
re-negotiation. Post the company’s results, Sharekhan maintains its ‘Buy’ rating
and lowers the target price to Rs 4,510. The brokerage says the company’s
commentary on maintaining EBIT margin at the current level for FY25 via
investments in building sales and marketing capacity as well as building
next-gen technology assets, including the AI domain, is likely to place an upper
limit on the profitability. 4. Hindustan Zinc: This zinc company has been on a
rally, rising by 42.4% over the past month. However, the stock fell by 1.5% on
April 19 after it posted a 21.1% YoY decline in its net profit to Rs 2,038 crore
in Q4FY24. Revenue also decreased by 12% YoY to Rs 7,285 crore during the
quarter. The company’s revenue missed Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates by 5.8%,
but net profit beat estimates by 1.9%. It shows up in a screener of stocks with
high promoter pledges. Revenue fell on account of significantly lower zinc &
lead prices and lower lead volumes, which was partially offset by an increase in
silver and zinc volumes. On an annual basis, the company’s refined zinc
production was marginally down YoY, while refined lead production was up 3% YOY.
The increase in lead production was due to the company adopting pyro operations
which increases the value of lead ores. The company has set a capex of Rs
2,249.7-2,708 crore for FY25. Part of the capex will be used for the undergoing
expansion of its 160 kt roaster in Debari which is expected to be completed by
Q4FY25. The remaining will be used for the 510kt fertilizer plant in Chanderiya
which will be commissioned by FY26. Speaking after the results, Amit Misra, CEO
of the company said, “Our FY25 volume growth guidance for mined metal production
is set at 4-6.5% YoY, refined metal production at 4-6% and saleable silver
production at 0.5-4%.” The sharp rise in the stock’s share price prior to
results came in reaction to the company reaching its highest-ever production
numbers for zinc and silver production in its FY24 business update, and a surge
in zinc prices (up 17.4% in April 2024). Zinc prices had fallen by 13% in 2023,
contributing to the fall in the company’s revenues. But prices have been on a
recovery in 2024, rising by 9.5% so far. With its rise in production, the
company has become the 2nd largest producer of zinc and the 3rd largest producer
of silver globally. The company has also incorporated a subsidiary to discover
and develop mineral blocks, which will produce lead alloys and other critical
minerals listed by the government. Post results, Motilal Oswal maintains its
‘Neutral’ rating on the stock with an upgraded target price of Rs 370 per share.
The brokerage states that the company’s performance has been in line with its
estimates. It also believes that the company’s focus on improving production
with tight cost control will boost profitability. It expects the company’s net
profit to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% over FY24-26. 5. Laurus Labs This pharma
company rose by 2.6% today post its result announcement. The firm beat Trendlyne
Forecaster estimates for Q4FY24 for revenue by 2.1%, however missed the net
profit estimate by 37%. For Q4FY24, the company’s net profit fell by 26.6% YoY
to Rs 75 crore on the back of rise in raw material and employee expenses, while
its revenue rose by 4.3% YoY. The stock shows up in a screener for companies
with annual net profit declining for the last 2 years. The company’s API
business contributed more than half of the revenue and saw a growth of 30%. Its
formulations or FDF business saw continued volume-led recovery in
Antiretrovirals (ARV), and stable pricing despite market challenges. Spends were
high compared to last year partly due to additional spend towards Competitive
Generic Therapies (CGT) space. The company’s management expects EBITDA margins
to improve in FY25 as they are prioritizing capex into high value and growing
market segments. For FY24, net capex was reported at Rs 700 crore (14% of the
revenue). The management also notes that their $100 million CDMO investments are
on track and they are planning an R&D; center coming on line by June 2024 end.
Laurus has recently inked a pact with Slovenia-based drug maker Krka to set up a
joint venture firm in Hyderabad. Krka will hold a 51% stake and Laurus 49% share
in the joint venture. The company’s management says that at least two products
are under preparation for the US market and they have launched one in Q4. V V
Ravi Kumar, Executive Director & Chief Financial Officer, said: “Overall FY24
was challenging, driven by selling price decline in antiretroviral (ARV)
products and absence of large purchase orders (PO). Despite operational
challenges, our committed capacity built-up is on track as is our focus on
productivity improvement.” Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Laurus Labs with
a "sell" rating and a price target of Rs. 350, with a “Sell” rating. According
to the brokerage, shares of Laurus Labs may fall as much as 23% over the next 12
months as it thinks that its segments lack immediate growth catalysts.
Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price
movements, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy
recommendations.

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A Flourish data visualization

CHART OF THE WEEK: CAPITAL GOODS, CONSUMER SERVICES SEE HIGHEST INFLOWS FROM
FPIS IN FY24

In FY24, a rising Indian equity market saw net foreign portfolio investment
(FPI) inflows amounting to $25.3 billion (approx. two lakh crore), surpassing
other emerging market peers, as reported in RBI’s ‘State of the Economy’.
Sectors like capital goods, consumer services, automobiles, and financial
services emerged as top choices for FPI investments, collectively accounting for
over 60% of the total foreign inflows, according to NSDL data. This trend
underscores the importance of FPI activity as a measure for retail investors
seeking insights into strong-performing sectors. In this Chart of the Week, we
take a look at sectors with the highest FPI activity in FY24. Throughout the
year, FPIs consistently poured money into capital goods companies, with a total
inflow of Rs 46,935 crore. The consumer services sector was the second favourite
among FPIs with a net investment of Rs 32,186 crore. Metals and mining, on the
other hand, witnessed the highest FPI outflow of Rs 8,531 crore in FY24. The
FMCG sector saw cyclical FPI investments: an inflow of Rs 10,621 crore from
April to July 2023, followed by a divestment of Rs 15,521 crore from August 2023
to February 2024, influenced by El Niño conditions and rural consumption
worries. Capital goods, auto and consumer services emerge as favourites More
than half of the total investment of around Rs 2 lakh crore by FPIs went into
capital goods, auto and consumer services sectors. Capital goods companies have
benefited from a robust order backlog and a steady inflow of fresh orders. This
growth was supported by higher commodity prices and increased government
infrastructure spending, as well as production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes.
Consumer services ranked second in FPI interest, with heavy inflows in the final
two months, with FPIs purchasing stocks worth Rs 12,179 crore in February and
March. Auto stocks also caught the attention of FPIs, attracting investments
worth Rs 29,862 crore in FY24. This was propelled by strong OEM sales, new
product launches, and favourable raw material prices, all of which gave profit
margins a boost. The financial services sector was doing quite well until
interest rates went steadily higher and the RBI tightened loan requirements in
November 2023. The sector observed mixed FPI inflows, with inflow of Rs 51,947
crore in H1FY24, followed by an outflow of Rs 23,154 crore in H2FY24. In the
past year, public sector banks also garnered attention as analysts highlighted
their cheap valuation compared to private banks. Healthcare and Telecom witness
rapid expansion amid positive consumer sentiment The healthcare sector,
comprising the pharma and hospitals industry, witnessed an inflow of Rs 16,687
crore in FY24. The pharma industry's growth was driven by international market
launches, steady domestic operations, and improved margins. Similarly, hospitals
saw increased bed occupancy and growth in average revenue per occupied bed,
alongside steady capacity additions, leading to higher net income and revenue
visibility. FPIs were net buyers worth Rs 15,277 crore in the telecom sector in
FY24, supported by healthy subscriber additions and a gradual uptick in average
revenue per user (ARPU). However, sector performance consolidated due to
marginal expansion in ARPU, due to the absence of price hikes in the past year.
Also, added capex costs with the 5G rollout and network densification kept debt
levels elevated giving rise to higher finance costs. IT and FMCG sectors see
muted investment FPIs injected a net amount of Rs 5,931 crore into the
information technology (IT) sector in FY24. This inflow is comparatively lower
than other sectors as hiring at IT companies was at all-time lows during the
past year, as margins grew stressed and clients renegotiated contracts. Indian
tech firms, particularly IT services companies, faced pressure due to their
reliance on the slowing North American market for over 60% of their revenue. The
FMCG sector also saw muted investor interest as FPIs added stocks worth Rs 1,341
crore in FY24. Topline growth remains muted due to subdued demand, particularly
in the mass end of the segment. Lower crop yields after a below-average monsoon
have affected rural demand. Oil and metals sectors see net FPI outflow in FY24
The oil & gas sector saw a net selling of Rs 5,774 crore in FY24. Market
volatility resulting from OPEC cuts and geopolitical factors, such as supply
chain disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and drone attacks on Russian
oil refineries by Ukraine, contributed significantly to this trend. Brent Crude
futures have risen by 13.4% year-to-date. Lastly, the metals and mining sector
saw the highest FPI outflow of Rs 8,531 crore in FY24. Indian companies in this
sector face major hurdles because of the dumping of steel at cheaper rates and
sub-standard imports from China. Here, dumping refers to an abrupt increase in
supply, which was seen from April to July 2023, where steel imports from China
to India rose 62% YoY. However, the government took measures to curb Chinese
imports in September 2023, where they imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty
targeting specific types of Chinese steel. Anti-dumping duty is a tax levied on
imported goods that the government believes are priced below fair market value.
The industry is also expected to address production gaps in 2024 and reduce
dependence on imports, supported by policy reforms, incentives, and large-scale
expansion plans by industry giants such as Tata Steel, Vedanta, and JSW Steel.
These FPI trends in different sectors reflect both global economic factors and
sector-specific challenges in India, highlighting the importance of
understanding market dynamics for investors to make better investment decisions.
Looking ahead, developments in sectors such as IT, finance and FMCG will be
closely watched, as they navigate through higher interest rates and volatile
customer spending.

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