earlywarningproject.ushmm.org Open in urlscan Pro
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Form analysis
4 forms found in the DOM

<form id="find-country" class="form-inline my-2 my-lg-0 right-addon"><select class="country-selection select2-hidden-accessible" data-select2-id="1" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true">
    <option data-select2-id="2"></option>
    <option value="126" data-select2-id="3">Afghanistan</option>
    <option value="38" data-select2-id="4">Albania</option>
    <option value="189" data-select2-id="5">Algeria</option>
    <option value="177" data-select2-id="6">Angola</option>
    <option value="114" data-select2-id="7">Argentina</option>
    <option value="130" data-select2-id="8">Armenia</option>
    <option value="92" data-select2-id="9">Australia</option>
    <option value="57" data-select2-id="10">Austria</option>
    <option value="128" data-select2-id="11">Azerbaijan</option>
    <option value="129" data-select2-id="12">Bahrain</option>
    <option value="133" data-select2-id="13">Bangladesh</option>
    <option value="45" data-select2-id="14">Belarus</option>
    <option value="43" data-select2-id="15">Belgium</option>
    <option value="174" data-select2-id="16">Benin</option>
    <option value="131" data-select2-id="17">Bhutan</option>
    <option value="113" data-select2-id="18">Bolivia</option>
    <option value="46" data-select2-id="19">Bosnia and Herzegovina</option>
    <option value="183" data-select2-id="20">Botswana</option>
    <option value="116" data-select2-id="21">Brazil</option>
    <option value="44" data-select2-id="22">Bulgaria</option>
    <option value="179" data-select2-id="23">Burkina Faso</option>
    <option value="155" data-select2-id="24">Burma/Myanmar</option>
    <option value="176" data-select2-id="25">Burundi</option>
    <option value="149" data-select2-id="26">Cambodia</option>
    <option value="180" data-select2-id="27">Cameroon</option>
    <option value="13" data-select2-id="28">Canada</option>
    <option value="181" data-select2-id="29">Central African Republic</option>
    <option value="219" data-select2-id="30">Chad</option>
    <option value="117" data-select2-id="31">Chile</option>
    <option value="135" data-select2-id="32">China</option>
    <option value="115" data-select2-id="33">Colombia</option>
    <option value="185" data-select2-id="34">Comoros</option>
    <option value="10" data-select2-id="35">Costa Rica</option>
    <option value="61" data-select2-id="36">Croatia</option>
    <option value="9" data-select2-id="37">Cuba</option>
    <option value="134" data-select2-id="38">Cyprus</option>
    <option value="48" data-select2-id="39">Czech Republic</option>
    <option value="182" data-select2-id="40">Democratic Republic of Congo</option>
    <option value="228" data-select2-id="41">Democratic Republic of Vietnam</option>
    <option value="49" data-select2-id="42">Denmark</option>
    <option value="186" data-select2-id="43">Djibouti</option>
    <option value="14" data-select2-id="44">Dominican Republic</option>
    <option value="119" data-select2-id="45">Ecuador</option>
    <option value="192" data-select2-id="46">Egypt</option>
    <option value="32" data-select2-id="47">El Salvador</option>
    <option value="196" data-select2-id="48">Equatorial Guinea</option>
    <option value="188" data-select2-id="49">Eritrea</option>
    <option value="54" data-select2-id="50">Estonia</option>
    <option value="191" data-select2-id="51">Ethiopia</option>
    <option value="91" data-select2-id="52">Fiji</option>
    <option value="52" data-select2-id="53">Finland</option>
    <option value="55" data-select2-id="54">France</option>
    <option value="205" data-select2-id="55">Gabon</option>
    <option value="137" data-select2-id="56">Georgia</option>
    <option value="50" data-select2-id="57">Germany</option>
    <option value="194" data-select2-id="58">Ghana</option>
    <option value="59" data-select2-id="59">Greece</option>
    <option value="19" data-select2-id="60">Guatemala</option>
    <option value="193" data-select2-id="61">Guinea</option>
    <option value="203" data-select2-id="62">Guinea-Bissau</option>
    <option value="120" data-select2-id="63">Guyana</option>
    <option value="21" data-select2-id="64">Haiti</option>
    <option value="20" data-select2-id="65">Honduras</option>
    <option value="64" data-select2-id="66">Hungary</option>
    <option value="138" data-select2-id="67">India</option>
    <option value="143" data-select2-id="68">Indonesia</option>
    <option value="140" data-select2-id="69">Iran</option>
    <option value="139" data-select2-id="70">Iraq</option>
    <option value="62" data-select2-id="71">Ireland</option>
    <option value="141" data-select2-id="72">Israel</option>
    <option value="65" data-select2-id="73">Italy</option>
    <option value="184" data-select2-id="74">Ivory Coast</option>
    <option value="22" data-select2-id="75">Jamaica</option>
    <option value="146" data-select2-id="76">Japan</option>
    <option value="142" data-select2-id="77">Jordan</option>
    <option value="145" data-select2-id="78">Kazakhstan</option>
    <option value="202" data-select2-id="79">Kenya</option>
    <option value="147" data-select2-id="80">Kuwait</option>
    <option value="158" data-select2-id="81">Kyrgyzstan</option>
    <option value="148" data-select2-id="82">Laos</option>
    <option value="70" data-select2-id="83">Latvia</option>
    <option value="150" data-select2-id="84">Lebanon</option>
    <option value="199" data-select2-id="85">Lesotho</option>
    <option value="198" data-select2-id="86">Liberia</option>
    <option value="197" data-select2-id="87">Libya</option>
    <option value="69" data-select2-id="88">Lithuania</option>
    <option value="74" data-select2-id="89">Macedonia</option>
    <option value="207" data-select2-id="90">Madagascar</option>
    <option value="214" data-select2-id="91">Malawi</option>
    <option value="153" data-select2-id="92">Malaysia</option>
    <option value="200" data-select2-id="93">Mali</option>
    <option value="204" data-select2-id="94">Mauritania</option>
    <option value="229" data-select2-id="95">Mauritius</option>
    <option value="27" data-select2-id="96">Mexico</option>
    <option value="73" data-select2-id="97">Moldova</option>
    <option value="157" data-select2-id="98">Mongolia</option>
    <option value="75" data-select2-id="99">Montenegro</option>
    <option value="201" data-select2-id="100">Morocco</option>
    <option value="210" data-select2-id="101">Mozambique</option>
    <option value="224" data-select2-id="102">Namibia</option>
    <option value="154" data-select2-id="103">Nepal</option>
    <option value="76" data-select2-id="104">Netherlands</option>
    <option value="102" data-select2-id="105">New Zealand</option>
    <option value="28" data-select2-id="106">Nicaragua</option>
    <option value="206" data-select2-id="107">Niger</option>
    <option value="208" data-select2-id="108">Nigeria</option>
    <option value="162" data-select2-id="109">North Korea</option>
    <option value="79" data-select2-id="110">Norway</option>
    <option value="156" data-select2-id="111">Oman</option>
    <option value="159" data-select2-id="112">Pakistan</option>
    <option value="29" data-select2-id="113">Panama</option>
    <option value="111" data-select2-id="114">Papua New Guinea</option>
    <option value="124" data-select2-id="115">Paraguay</option>
    <option value="121" data-select2-id="116">Peru</option>
    <option value="160" data-select2-id="117">Philippines</option>
    <option value="78" data-select2-id="118">Poland</option>
    <option value="80" data-select2-id="119">Portugal</option>
    <option value="161" data-select2-id="120">Qatar</option>
    <option value="190" data-select2-id="121">Republic of the Congo</option>
    <option value="81" data-select2-id="122">Romania</option>
    <option value="85" data-select2-id="123">Russia</option>
    <option value="209" data-select2-id="124">Rwanda</option>
    <option value="164" data-select2-id="125">Saudi Arabia</option>
    <option value="215" data-select2-id="126">Senegal</option>
    <option value="84" data-select2-id="127">Serbia</option>
    <option value="218" data-select2-id="128">Sierra Leone</option>
    <option value="165" data-select2-id="129">Singapore</option>
    <option value="86" data-select2-id="130">Slovakia</option>
    <option value="83" data-select2-id="131">Slovenia</option>
    <option value="105" data-select2-id="132">Solomon Islands</option>
    <option value="227" data-select2-id="133">Somalia</option>
    <option value="225" data-select2-id="134">South Africa</option>
    <option value="144" data-select2-id="135">South Korea</option>
    <option value="213" data-select2-id="136">South Sudan</option>
    <option value="51" data-select2-id="137">Spain</option>
    <option value="151" data-select2-id="138">Sri Lanka</option>
    <option value="212" data-select2-id="139">Sudan</option>
    <option value="216" data-select2-id="140">Swaziland</option>
    <option value="87" data-select2-id="141">Sweden</option>
    <option value="47" data-select2-id="142">Switzerland</option>
    <option value="169" data-select2-id="143">Syria</option>
    <option value="167" data-select2-id="144">Tajikistan</option>
    <option value="222" data-select2-id="145">Tanzania</option>
    <option value="172" data-select2-id="146">Thailand</option>
    <option value="195" data-select2-id="147">The Gambia</option>
    <option value="166" data-select2-id="148">Timor-Leste</option>
    <option value="220" data-select2-id="149">Togo</option>
    <option value="34" data-select2-id="150">Trinidad and Tobago</option>
    <option value="223" data-select2-id="151">Tunisia</option>
    <option value="170" data-select2-id="152">Turkey</option>
    <option value="168" data-select2-id="153">Turkmenistan</option>
    <option value="221" data-select2-id="154">Uganda</option>
    <option value="89" data-select2-id="155">Ukraine</option>
    <option value="127" data-select2-id="156">United Arab Emirates</option>
    <option value="56" data-select2-id="157">United Kingdom</option>
    <option value="39" data-select2-id="158">United States of America</option>
    <option value="123" data-select2-id="159">Uruguay</option>
    <option value="173" data-select2-id="160">Uzbekistan</option>
    <option value="125" data-select2-id="161">Venezuela</option>
    <option value="178" data-select2-id="162">Yemen</option>
    <option value="226" data-select2-id="163">Zambia</option>
    <option value="1" data-select2-id="164">Zimbabwe</option>
  </select><span class="select2 select2-container select2-container--default" dir="ltr" data-select2-id="165"><span class="selection"><span class="select2-selection select2-selection--single" role="combobox" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false"
        tabindex="0" aria-labelledby="select2-uc47-container"><span class="select2-selection__rendered" id="select2-uc47-container" role="textbox" aria-readonly="true"><span class="select2-selection__placeholder">Select a country</span></span><span
          class="select2-selection__arrow" role="presentation"><b role="presentation"></b></span></span></span><span class="dropdown-wrapper" aria-hidden="true"></span></span></form>

GET https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org/search

<form id="search-form" method="GET" action="https://earlywarningproject.ushmm.org/search" class="form-inline my-2 my-lg-0 right-addon"><input id="search-field" name="query" value="" type="text" aria-label="Search" autofocus="autofocus"
    class="form-control"></form>

<form>
  <div class="form-group col-xs-12 col-sm-12 col-md-12"><label for="email-signup" aria-label="Email Signup"></label> <input type="email" name="email" id="email-signup" placeholder="Your e-mail address" class="filled"> <label for="postal-signup"
      aria-label="Postal Code"></label> <input type="postalCode" name="postalCode" id="postal-signup" placeholder="Postal Code" class="filled"> <label for="email-signup-button" aria-label="Subscribe"></label> <input type="button"
      id="email-signup-button" name="submit-btn" value="Subscribe" class="btn"></div>
</form>

<form id="find-country" class="form-inline my-2 my-lg-0 right-addon"><select class="country-selection select2-hidden-accessible" data-select2-id="166" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true">
    <option data-select2-id="167"></option>
    <option value="126" data-select2-id="168">Afghanistan</option>
    <option value="38" data-select2-id="169">Albania</option>
    <option value="189" data-select2-id="170">Algeria</option>
    <option value="177" data-select2-id="171">Angola</option>
    <option value="114" data-select2-id="172">Argentina</option>
    <option value="130" data-select2-id="173">Armenia</option>
    <option value="92" data-select2-id="174">Australia</option>
    <option value="57" data-select2-id="175">Austria</option>
    <option value="128" data-select2-id="176">Azerbaijan</option>
    <option value="129" data-select2-id="177">Bahrain</option>
    <option value="133" data-select2-id="178">Bangladesh</option>
    <option value="45" data-select2-id="179">Belarus</option>
    <option value="43" data-select2-id="180">Belgium</option>
    <option value="174" data-select2-id="181">Benin</option>
    <option value="131" data-select2-id="182">Bhutan</option>
    <option value="113" data-select2-id="183">Bolivia</option>
    <option value="46" data-select2-id="184">Bosnia and Herzegovina</option>
    <option value="183" data-select2-id="185">Botswana</option>
    <option value="116" data-select2-id="186">Brazil</option>
    <option value="44" data-select2-id="187">Bulgaria</option>
    <option value="179" data-select2-id="188">Burkina Faso</option>
    <option value="155" data-select2-id="189">Burma/Myanmar</option>
    <option value="176" data-select2-id="190">Burundi</option>
    <option value="149" data-select2-id="191">Cambodia</option>
    <option value="180" data-select2-id="192">Cameroon</option>
    <option value="13" data-select2-id="193">Canada</option>
    <option value="181" data-select2-id="194">Central African Republic</option>
    <option value="219" data-select2-id="195">Chad</option>
    <option value="117" data-select2-id="196">Chile</option>
    <option value="135" data-select2-id="197">China</option>
    <option value="115" data-select2-id="198">Colombia</option>
    <option value="185" data-select2-id="199">Comoros</option>
    <option value="10" data-select2-id="200">Costa Rica</option>
    <option value="61" data-select2-id="201">Croatia</option>
    <option value="9" data-select2-id="202">Cuba</option>
    <option value="134" data-select2-id="203">Cyprus</option>
    <option value="48" data-select2-id="204">Czech Republic</option>
    <option value="182" data-select2-id="205">Democratic Republic of Congo</option>
    <option value="228" data-select2-id="206">Democratic Republic of Vietnam</option>
    <option value="49" data-select2-id="207">Denmark</option>
    <option value="186" data-select2-id="208">Djibouti</option>
    <option value="14" data-select2-id="209">Dominican Republic</option>
    <option value="119" data-select2-id="210">Ecuador</option>
    <option value="192" data-select2-id="211">Egypt</option>
    <option value="32" data-select2-id="212">El Salvador</option>
    <option value="196" data-select2-id="213">Equatorial Guinea</option>
    <option value="188" data-select2-id="214">Eritrea</option>
    <option value="54" data-select2-id="215">Estonia</option>
    <option value="191" data-select2-id="216">Ethiopia</option>
    <option value="91" data-select2-id="217">Fiji</option>
    <option value="52" data-select2-id="218">Finland</option>
    <option value="55" data-select2-id="219">France</option>
    <option value="205" data-select2-id="220">Gabon</option>
    <option value="137" data-select2-id="221">Georgia</option>
    <option value="50" data-select2-id="222">Germany</option>
    <option value="194" data-select2-id="223">Ghana</option>
    <option value="59" data-select2-id="224">Greece</option>
    <option value="19" data-select2-id="225">Guatemala</option>
    <option value="193" data-select2-id="226">Guinea</option>
    <option value="203" data-select2-id="227">Guinea-Bissau</option>
    <option value="120" data-select2-id="228">Guyana</option>
    <option value="21" data-select2-id="229">Haiti</option>
    <option value="20" data-select2-id="230">Honduras</option>
    <option value="64" data-select2-id="231">Hungary</option>
    <option value="138" data-select2-id="232">India</option>
    <option value="143" data-select2-id="233">Indonesia</option>
    <option value="140" data-select2-id="234">Iran</option>
    <option value="139" data-select2-id="235">Iraq</option>
    <option value="62" data-select2-id="236">Ireland</option>
    <option value="141" data-select2-id="237">Israel</option>
    <option value="65" data-select2-id="238">Italy</option>
    <option value="184" data-select2-id="239">Ivory Coast</option>
    <option value="22" data-select2-id="240">Jamaica</option>
    <option value="146" data-select2-id="241">Japan</option>
    <option value="142" data-select2-id="242">Jordan</option>
    <option value="145" data-select2-id="243">Kazakhstan</option>
    <option value="202" data-select2-id="244">Kenya</option>
    <option value="147" data-select2-id="245">Kuwait</option>
    <option value="158" data-select2-id="246">Kyrgyzstan</option>
    <option value="148" data-select2-id="247">Laos</option>
    <option value="70" data-select2-id="248">Latvia</option>
    <option value="150" data-select2-id="249">Lebanon</option>
    <option value="199" data-select2-id="250">Lesotho</option>
    <option value="198" data-select2-id="251">Liberia</option>
    <option value="197" data-select2-id="252">Libya</option>
    <option value="69" data-select2-id="253">Lithuania</option>
    <option value="74" data-select2-id="254">Macedonia</option>
    <option value="207" data-select2-id="255">Madagascar</option>
    <option value="214" data-select2-id="256">Malawi</option>
    <option value="153" data-select2-id="257">Malaysia</option>
    <option value="200" data-select2-id="258">Mali</option>
    <option value="204" data-select2-id="259">Mauritania</option>
    <option value="229" data-select2-id="260">Mauritius</option>
    <option value="27" data-select2-id="261">Mexico</option>
    <option value="73" data-select2-id="262">Moldova</option>
    <option value="157" data-select2-id="263">Mongolia</option>
    <option value="75" data-select2-id="264">Montenegro</option>
    <option value="201" data-select2-id="265">Morocco</option>
    <option value="210" data-select2-id="266">Mozambique</option>
    <option value="224" data-select2-id="267">Namibia</option>
    <option value="154" data-select2-id="268">Nepal</option>
    <option value="76" data-select2-id="269">Netherlands</option>
    <option value="102" data-select2-id="270">New Zealand</option>
    <option value="28" data-select2-id="271">Nicaragua</option>
    <option value="206" data-select2-id="272">Niger</option>
    <option value="208" data-select2-id="273">Nigeria</option>
    <option value="162" data-select2-id="274">North Korea</option>
    <option value="79" data-select2-id="275">Norway</option>
    <option value="156" data-select2-id="276">Oman</option>
    <option value="159" data-select2-id="277">Pakistan</option>
    <option value="29" data-select2-id="278">Panama</option>
    <option value="111" data-select2-id="279">Papua New Guinea</option>
    <option value="124" data-select2-id="280">Paraguay</option>
    <option value="121" data-select2-id="281">Peru</option>
    <option value="160" data-select2-id="282">Philippines</option>
    <option value="78" data-select2-id="283">Poland</option>
    <option value="80" data-select2-id="284">Portugal</option>
    <option value="161" data-select2-id="285">Qatar</option>
    <option value="190" data-select2-id="286">Republic of the Congo</option>
    <option value="81" data-select2-id="287">Romania</option>
    <option value="85" data-select2-id="288">Russia</option>
    <option value="209" data-select2-id="289">Rwanda</option>
    <option value="164" data-select2-id="290">Saudi Arabia</option>
    <option value="215" data-select2-id="291">Senegal</option>
    <option value="84" data-select2-id="292">Serbia</option>
    <option value="218" data-select2-id="293">Sierra Leone</option>
    <option value="165" data-select2-id="294">Singapore</option>
    <option value="86" data-select2-id="295">Slovakia</option>
    <option value="83" data-select2-id="296">Slovenia</option>
    <option value="105" data-select2-id="297">Solomon Islands</option>
    <option value="227" data-select2-id="298">Somalia</option>
    <option value="225" data-select2-id="299">South Africa</option>
    <option value="144" data-select2-id="300">South Korea</option>
    <option value="213" data-select2-id="301">South Sudan</option>
    <option value="51" data-select2-id="302">Spain</option>
    <option value="151" data-select2-id="303">Sri Lanka</option>
    <option value="212" data-select2-id="304">Sudan</option>
    <option value="216" data-select2-id="305">Swaziland</option>
    <option value="87" data-select2-id="306">Sweden</option>
    <option value="47" data-select2-id="307">Switzerland</option>
    <option value="169" data-select2-id="308">Syria</option>
    <option value="167" data-select2-id="309">Tajikistan</option>
    <option value="222" data-select2-id="310">Tanzania</option>
    <option value="172" data-select2-id="311">Thailand</option>
    <option value="195" data-select2-id="312">The Gambia</option>
    <option value="166" data-select2-id="313">Timor-Leste</option>
    <option value="220" data-select2-id="314">Togo</option>
    <option value="34" data-select2-id="315">Trinidad and Tobago</option>
    <option value="223" data-select2-id="316">Tunisia</option>
    <option value="170" data-select2-id="317">Turkey</option>
    <option value="168" data-select2-id="318">Turkmenistan</option>
    <option value="221" data-select2-id="319">Uganda</option>
    <option value="89" data-select2-id="320">Ukraine</option>
    <option value="127" data-select2-id="321">United Arab Emirates</option>
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EARLY WARNING PROJECT


THE EARLY WARNING PROJECT ASSESSES THE RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES IN COUNTRIES
AROUND THE WORLD.

Genocide and mass atrocities are devastating crimes in their scale and scope, in
their enduring psychic scars for survivors, and in the long-term trauma they
cause in societies where they occur. Despite past efforts to address systematic
killing, and a body of law formed after the Holocaust to prevent and punish
perpetrators, such crimes persist.

We use quantitative and qualitative methods to spotlight countries where mass
atrocities have not begun, but where the risk for such violence is high.

We strive to improve this early warning system for mass atrocities by using a
variety of publicly available data and forecasting methods.

The Early Warning Project, a first-of-its-kind public system, is a joint
initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Dickey Center for International
Understanding at Dartmouth College.

Photo above: A SPLA-In Opposition soldier walks through the elephant grass in
rebel-held Magwi county of South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria state on August 28,
2017. USHMM/Jason Patinkin.

2021-22 REPORT

Countries at Risk for Mass Killings 2021-22: Early Warning Project Statistical
Risk Assessment Results

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EXPLORE OUR ANALYSIS

RISK ASSESSMENT

See countries ranked by risk, and learn about countries that are at high risk or
experiencing an ongoing mass killing episode.

METHODOLOGY

Learn how we generate our statistical risk assessments, and how you can use this
data to make informed decisions about policies and practice.

CROWD FORECASTING

See results of “wisdom of the crowds” aggregation of public opinion and
comparison surveys and learn how you can help us assess risk in select
countries.

RESOURCES

Read reports about our risk assessments and crowd forecasting, in-depth analysis
on high risk countries, and more.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KEY RESOURCES

IMMEDIATE RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES IN SOUTH SUDAN

PDF - English

TAKING STOCK OF EARLY WARNING FOR ATROCITY PREVENTION: REPORT FROM THE 2021
SUDIKOFF INTERDISCIPLINARY SEMINAR ON GENOCIDE PREVENTION

The 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention explored
methodological and policy-related issues around early warning for atrocity
prevention. We sought to share lessons among various forecasting projects,
contribute to improved early warning and response mechanisms within the US
government, and generate new ideas for future research to improve the field of
early warning. This report compiles essays from several leading experts who
participated in the seminar series. 

PDF - English

PERPETRATORS IN POWER: GROWING MASS ATROCITY RISK IN POST-COUP BURMA

EARLY WARNING: RISKS FOR VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS IN CHAD

RISK OF GENOCIDE AND OTHER MASS ATROCITIES IN ETHIOPIA

COUNTRIES AT RISK FOR MASS KILLING 2021–22: EARLY WARNING PROJECT STATISTICAL
RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS

The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available
data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their
estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of mass killing.

PDF - English

SUMMARY HANDOUT | COUNTRIES AT RISK FOR MASS KILLING 2021–22: EARLY WARNING
PROJECT STATISTICAL RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS

This handout provides a summary of the Countries at Risk for Mass Killing
2021–22: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment report. 

PDF - English

WOMEN AND HAZARA IN AFGHANISTAN FACE HEIGHTENED RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES AFTER
TALIBAN TAKEOVER

RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES AGAINST THE ROHINGYA POST-COUP

The Rohingya survivors of the 2017 genocide are again at risk. On February 1,
2021, the Tatmadaw seized power in a military coup. Now, genocide perpetrators
are leading the country, elected civilian leadership are in hiding, and
civilians are again under attack. This policy brief outlines plausible scenarios
of mass atrocities against the Rohingya that could unfold in the next one to two
years.

PDF - English

CIVILIANS AT IMMINENT RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES IN DARA’A CITY, SYRIA

STATE OF THE WORLD: MASS KILLING IN 2020

The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to
forecast when and where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in
the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and
nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for
ongoing mass killings in 2020.

PDF - English

RISK OF MASS ATROCITIES IN MOZAMBIQUE

Mozambique has ranked consistently high-risk for mass killing according to the
Early Warning Project, with escalating violence in the country’s north due to an
extremist insurgency. This brief outlines potential perpetrators, describes mass
atrocity risk factors present and plausible worst-case scenarios, and identifies
resiliencies and recommendations for preventive actions.

PDF - English

SURVEY RESULTS: SOUTH SUDAN TOPS RISK LIST FOR MASS KILLING IN 2021

EFFORTS TO ENSURE A PEACEFUL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE IN OCTOBER
2020

A new report from a Simon-Skjodt Center fellow analyzes the evolving risks of
mass atrocities in the country and the steps that domestic and international
actors have taken to help prevent large-scale violence around the upcoming
elections.

PDF - Efforts To Ensure A Peaceful Presidential Election In Côte D’Ivoire In
October 2020

STATE OF THE WORLD: MASS KILLING IN 2019

No new mass killing episodes began in 2019, according to the latest review by
the Early Warning Project. This good news, however, is tempered by the
historically high number of ongoing mass killings: 20 separate episodes as of
the end of 2019, perpetrated by 10 states and 10 nonstate groups, in 15
countries.

PDF - English

SURVEY RESULTS: BURKINA FASO TOPS RISK LIST FOR MASS KILLING IN 2020

COUNTRIES AT RISK FOR MASS KILLINGS 2019–20: EARLY WARNING PROJECT STATISTICAL
RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS

The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available
data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their
estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of mass killing.

PDF - English

STATE OF THE WORLD: MASS KILLING IN 2018

The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to
forecast when and where new mass killing episodes are most likely to happen in
the future. Each year we update our list of countries experiencing state- and
nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for
ongoing mass killings in 2018.

PDF - English

COMPARISON SURVEY LAUNCH: WHICH COUNTRIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE NEW MASS
KILLING IN 2019?

COUNTRIES AT RISK FOR MASS KILLINGS 2018–19: EARLY WARNING PROJECT STATISTICAL
RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS

The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available
data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their
likelihood of experiencing an onset, or new episode, of mass killing. 

PDF - English

REGIONS AT RISK: PREVENTING MASS ATROCITIES IN MALI

Mali is currently facing numerous conflicts throughout its vast territory.
Today, there is a potential risk of mass atrocities in Mali as multiple armed
groups vie for power in a vacuum of state authority. Though mass atrocities are
not yet taking place in Mali, early warning signs are visible and warrant
attention.

PDF - English
More Resources

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RECEIVE UPDATES

from the Early Warning Project and the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of
Genocide



The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for
the Prevention of Genocide of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and
the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.

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AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAngolaArgentinaArmeniaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahrainBangladeshBelarusBelgiumBeninBhutanBoliviaBosnia
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