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By Maria Gil
October 26, 2023
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Spring tips for property buyers
Domain’s property editor Alice Stolz shares some tips for those looking to buy
this spring.
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Spring tips for property buyers
Domain’s property editor Alice Stolz shares some tips for those looking to buy
this spring.
AUSTRALIA'S PROPERTY MARKET HAS ALMOST FULLY RECOVERED FROM THE DOWNTURN AND
NEARING PANDEMIC RECORD HIGHS
By Maria Gil
October 26, 2023
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Australia’s property market has almost fully recovered from the 2022 downturn,
with new data revealing the national median house price is just $2000 shy of
returning to pandemic boom highs.
Domain’s latest House Price Report, released Thursday, shows every capital city
is now in a state of recovery. Sydney and Brisbane are tipped to surpass their
previous peak prices and hit new records by the end of the year.
It is a stunning turnaround from last year’s short and sharp downturn, which saw
Australia’s median house price record its steepest fall on record.
Sydney’s housing market incurred losses of $148,092 from the median price during
the downturn; it has already recouped $135,705 of that. Brisbane lost $47,381
and has recouped $39,020, leaving a shortfall of just 1 per cent.
Over the September quarter this year, house prices have risen across every
capital city.
Embed this chart
Adelaide and Perth escaped the housing downturn altogether and are are already
hitting new price records.
Despite the rises, the the pace of growth slowed considerably this quarter,
particularly for houses; the rate of house price growth eased by a third.
Domain chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell says stretched
affordability is preventing the pace of price growth from accelerating further,
and an increase in new listings means buyers now have more choice and time to
think on their decisions.
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“The pace of price growth is losing momentum,” she says. “We saw quite a strong
start to the year in terms of price rise, but now we’ve started to see the pace
of growth still be positive, but it moderated, and that is largely due to the
increase in supply we’ve now started to see,” she says.
Embed this chart
“New listings have improved, and September’s auction volumes reached a 16-month
high. Nationally, total supply is now 5.1 per cent above July’s low (6.5 per
cent higher across the combined capitals), although it remains lower annually
compared to the five-year average.
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“Listings rising is helping remove an element of urgency from some buyers.”
Sydney is still leading the recovery. Annually, Sydney house prices are up 8.1
per cent and units up 2.1 per cent.
Ric Serrao of Raine and Horne Double Bay says free-standing homes and the higher
end of the market will push the Sydney median price to new levels.
17 Orr Street, Bondi NSW 2026
3 Beds1 Bath1 Parking
View listing
“[For] a free-standing house or a semi, I am finding that it’s not slowing down
at all,” he says. “I definitely think anything that is renovated and
free-standing or prestige … will continue to grow.”
He attributed this price growth to the low supply in the market, high building
costs and the difficulty of locking in a builder for new projects.
“I don’t know if any builders are doing fixed contracts at the moment, so there
is just a lot of uncertainty for consumers in terms of what builders are
actually going to cost,” he says.
Despite this uncertainty and low supply issues, both Serrao and Powell believe
the Sydney market will have steady and normal growth moving forward.
As well as rising house prices, Brisbane’s median unit price has reached a
record high.
Embed this chart
“For the first time in the city’s history, unit prices have outperformed house
prices for six consecutive quarters, narrowing the price gap between property
types,” says Powell.
Judie O’Dea of Ray White Paddington says the price growth and recovery in
Brisbane can be attributed to three things.
“Number one is that a lot of people who can’t afford houses are now able to
afford a unit or a townhouse,” she says.
“Number two: it’s just population coming to Brisbane and seeking units,
townhouses or homes. Those numbers are about 150,000 people coming across the
border every year. It’s enormous.”
“Number three, the rents are so high that a lot of people have said, ‘bugger
that, bugger paying rent, maybe I can go buy a unit or a townhouse’.”
O’Dea says the severe undersupply in the market has pushed prices up
significantly, and she believes that it won’t be long before Brisbane hits new
price highs.
4 Bridge Street, Red Hill QLD 4059
5 Beds3 Baths1 Parking
View listing
Perth and Adelaide hit new house price records for a second consecutive quarter,
as well as recording the steepest quarterly gains for units.
“Adelaide has always been renowned as a quiet achiever, a title that the city
defies as the state battles to balance positive net interstate migration, record
levels of overseas migration, Australia’s tightest city rental market (joint
with Perth) and a chronic undersupply,” says Powell.
Canberra has officially moved into recovery after house prices increased for the
first time since mid-2022. So far, the median house price has recouped $18,000
of the $151,000 value lost during the downturn.
However, unit prices in Canberra declined once again into the September quarter.
“The conditions for Canberra were quite unusual. It was the steepest upswing,
and the steepest downturn the market had ever seen,” she says.
Unlike Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is not known to have big swings in its
property cycle, and Powell believes the negative migration in Canberra was the
cause behind the long downturn.
Overseas and interstate migration can affect a city’s property prices when
supply cannot meet population growth, she says.
Powell says today’s property market is reminiscent of the 2010s market, where
population was a mitigating factor while interest rates were rising.
“It happened back in 2010, where we had the cash rate rising, and we had the
property prices rising. While it was very different economic circumstances
between [2010 and today], there is one thing that unites them both, which is a
strong level of population growth,” she says.
“It’s a timely reminder that the cash rate and the cost of debt is important,
but it’s not the only thing that drives price cycles.”
DataHouse Prices
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