www.elibrary.imf.org Open in urlscan Pro
52.16.68.10  Public Scan

Submitted URL: https://mymail.guru99.com/index.php/campaigns/wc819r814lca2/track-url/jw201cals0cff/e1524c196806bc25ca03d049d5c432a6c9f13351
Effective URL: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/022/0052/001/article-A007-en.xml?utm_source=www.guru99.com&utm_medium=newsletter
Submission: On December 08 via manual from GB — Scanned from GB

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Toil and Technology: Innovative technology is displacing workers to new jobs
rather than replacing them entirely
Author:
James Bessen
James Bessen
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Publication Date: 27 Feb 2015 eISBN: 9781498351942 Language: English Keywords:
FD; F&D; worker; firm; IMF-World Bank; job growth; income; warehouse worker;
skills employers want; stagnant wage; experienced worker; computer automation;
Emerging technologies; Wages; Unemployment; Global
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 * Abstract
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For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary
policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues,
subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings
you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well
as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who
want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the
policies and activities of the IMF.


ABSTRACT

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary
policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues,
subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings
you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well
as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who
want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the
policies and activities of the IMF.

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James Bessen

At the Quiet Logistics distribution center north of Boston in the United States,
a robot lifts a shelf and transports it through the warehouse to a workstation.
There, an employee picks an item from the shelf and places it in a shipping box.
Each robot in the distribution center does the work of one and a half humans.

Robots and other technologies are transforming supply chains, tracking items
from source to consumer, minimizing shipping time and cost, automating clerical
tasks, and more. But are they eliminating the need for human workers, leading to
persistent technological unemployment?

Surprisingly, the managers of warehouses and other supply chain facilities
report that they have difficulty hiring enough workers, at least enough with the
skills needed to use the new technologies. Moreover, they see these skill
shortages persisting for the next decade.

New “smart machines” are radically changing the nature of work, but the question
is how. Powered by artificial intelligence, new technologies are taking over
tasks not only from warehouse workers, but also from white-collar workers and
professionals. Automated teller machines have taken over the tasks of bank
tellers; accounting software has automated the work of bookkeepers. Now
computers can diagnose breast cancer from X-rays and predict survival rates at
least as well as the average radiologist.

What, exactly, does this mean for jobs and wages? Sometimes new technologies
eliminate jobs overall, but sometimes they create demand for new capabilities
and new jobs. In one case, the new machines replace workers overall; in the
other, they just displace workers to different jobs that require new skills. In
the past, it has sometimes taken decades to build the training institutions and
labor markets needed to develop major new technical skills on a large scale.

Policymakers need to know which way technology is headed. If it replaces
workers, they will need to cope with ever-growing unemployment and widening
economic inequality. But if the primary problem is displacement, they will
mainly have to develop a workforce with new specialized skills. The two problems
call for very different solutions.

Despite fears of widespread technological unemployment, I argue that the data
show technology today largely displacing workers to new jobs, not replacing them
entirely. Of the major occupational groups, only manufacturing jobs are being
eliminated persistently in developed economies—and these losses are offset by
growth in other occupations.

Yet all is not well with the workforce. The average worker has seen stagnant
wages, and employers report difficulty hiring workers with needed technical
skills. As technology creates new opportunities, it creates new demands as well,
and training institutions are slow to adapt. Although some economists deny that
there are too few workers with needed skills, a careful look at the evidence
below suggests we face a significant challenge building a workforce with the
knowledge needed to use new technologies. Until training institutions and labor
markets do catch up, the benefits of information technology will be limited and
not widely shared.


AUTOMATION ≠ UNEMPLOYMENT

I focus on information technology because this technology has brought dramatic
change to a large portion of the workforce. Some people see computers automating
work and conclude that technological unemployment is inevitable. A recent study
(Frey and Osborne, 2013) looks at how computers can perform different job tasks.
It concludes that 47 percent of U.S. employment is in occupations that are at
high risk of being automated during the next decade or so. Does that mean nearly
half of all jobs are about to be eliminated?

Not likely. Just because computers can perform some job tasks does not mean that
jobs will be eliminated. Consider bank tellers. Automated teller machines (ATMs)
were first installed in the United States and other developed economies in the
1970s. These machines handle some of the most common tasks bank tellers
performed, such as dispensing cash and taking deposits. Starting in the
mid-1990s, banks rapidly increased their use of ATMs; over 400,000 are installed
in the United States alone today.

One might expect such automation to decimate the ranks of bank tellers, but in
fact the number of bank teller jobs did not decrease as the ATMs were rolled out
(see Chart 1). Instead, two factors combined to preserve teller jobs.

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Chart 1

Dispensing jobs

As more ATMs were installed in the United States, the number of tellers employed
did not drop.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Sources: Ruggles and others, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version
5.0; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey; and Bank for
International Settlements, Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, various
publications.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 1

Dispensing jobs

As more ATMs were installed in the United States, the number of tellers employed
did not drop.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Sources: Ruggles and others, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version
5.0; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey; and Bank for
International Settlements, Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, various
publications.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

First, ATMs increased the demand for tellers because they reduced the cost of
operating a bank branch. Thanks to the ATM, the number of tellers required to
operate a branch office in the average urban market fell from 20 to 13 between
1988 and 2004. But banks responded by opening more branches to compete for
greater market share. Bank branches in urban areas increased 43 percent. Fewer
tellers were required for each branch, but more branches meant that teller jobs
did not disappear.

Second, while ATMs automated some tasks, the remaining tasks that were not
automated became more valuable. As banks pushed to increase their market shares,
tellers became an important part of the “relationship banking team.” Many bank
customers’ needs cannot be handled by machines—particularly small business
customers’. Tellers who form a personal relationship with these customers can
help sell them on high-margin financial services and products. The skills of the
teller changed: cash handling became less important and human interaction more
important.

In short, the economic response to automation of bank tellers’ work was much
more dynamic than many people would expect. This is nothing new. Automation
during the Industrial Revolution did not create massive technological
unemployment. During the 19th century, for example, power looms automated 98
percent of the labor needed to weave a yard of cloth. Yet the number of factory
weaving jobs increased over this period. Less labor cost per yard meant a lower
price in competitive markets; a lower price meant sharply increased demand for
cloth; and greater demand for cloth increased the demand for weavers despite the
drop in labor needed per yard. Furthermore, while technology automated more and
more weaving tasks, weavers’ remaining skills, such as those needed to
coordinate work across multiple looms, became increasingly valuable. Weavers’
wages rose sharply compared with those of other workers during the late 19th
century.

> New technology can also increase the demand for workers with new skills.

The economy responds dynamically in other ways as well. In some cases, new jobs
are created in related occupations. Desktop publishing meant fewer typographers
but more graphic designers; automated company phone systems meant fewer
switchboard operators but more receptionists who took over the human interaction
tasks switchboard operators previously performed. In each case, the new jobs
required new and different skills. Sometimes new jobs appear in entirely
unrelated sectors. For example, as agricultural jobs disappeared, new jobs arose
in the manufacturing and service sectors.

Thus computer automation does not necessarily imply imminent and massive
technological unemployment; new technology can also increase the demand for
workers with new skills. To measure the actual effect of computer technology on
jobs overall, we must look at major occupational groups to capture the net
effect when jobs switch to related occupations.

Chart 2 shows the annual growth rate of jobs in five major occupational groups,
listed in order of declining computer use; over half the workers in each of the
first three groups used computers at work as of 2001. In all three
computer-intensive groups, jobs grew faster than the overall labor force. In
other words, computers have caused job losses in some specific occupations, but
the net effect on these broad occupational groups has not been technological
unemployment. Only manufacturing has experienced a net loss in jobs—5 million
jobs over three decades. Yet employment growth in the rest of the economy offset
these losses.

View Full Size
Chart 2

Computers don’t kill jobs

Jobs have grown faster in occupational groups that use computers than in the
overall labor force.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 2

Computers don’t kill jobs

Jobs have grown faster in occupational groups that use computers than in the
overall labor force.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

In short, during the three decades since the advent of the personal computer,
technology has not been replacing workers on the whole. But that might be about
to change. Some people, such as science fiction writer Vernor Vinge—also a
retired professor of mathematics and a computer scientist—argue that we are
approaching the “technological singularity”: within a decade or so computers
will become “smarter” than humans. When this happens, they say, technology
really will replace human workers on a massive scale. Perhaps they are right,
but many computer scientists remain skeptical.

New technology will surely take over more tasks that humans perform, but many
human qualities will remain important in global commerce. Although computers can
pick stock portfolios, financial advisors provide reassurance when markets are
down. Although computers can recommend which products to buy, salespeople
understand consumer needs and inspire confidence that unforeseen contingencies
will be handled fairly. Although computers can make accurate medical prognoses,
they don’t yet have the bedside manner to guide patients through difficult
medical choices. And computer scientists don’t foresee computers acquiring such
capabilities anytime soon.

So while technological unemployment might become a significant problem in the
future, it is not a major problem today nor is it likely to become one in the
immediate future. Policymakers should not focus on responding to an ill-defined
and uncertain threat of future technological unemployment when information
technology is causing some very real problems for both employees and employers
right now.


NEW SKILLS FOR NEW TECHNOLOGY

Supply chain managers are not the only executives reporting difficulty finding
workers who have the skills to use new technology. The U.S.-based company
ManpowerGroup conducts an annual survey of 38,000 managers worldwide. Last year,
35 percent of managers reported difficulty hiring workers with needed skills.
Other surveys have reported similar figures.

But some economists are deeply skeptical about employer complaints of a talent
shortage. Some, such as economist Peter Cappelli, argue that the number of
educated workers exceeds the number required for today’s jobs. However, the
missing skills are too often technology related and learned through job
experience, not in school, so employers can face skill shortages despite high
levels of schooling.

Other economists argue that there must not be a skill shortage because average
wages aren’t rising. The Brookings Institution’s Gary Burtless writes, “Unless
managers have forgotten everything they learned in Econ 101, they should
recognize that one way to fill a vacancy is to offer qualified job seekers a
compelling reason to take the job” by offering better pay or benefits. Since the
median wage is not increasing, Burtless concludes that there is no shortage of
skilled workers.

Burtless is right that wages will be bid up for workers who have needed skills,
but he apparently assumes that median workers already possess the skills
employers want. That seems unlikely if they have difficulty learning the skills
to handle the very latest technology. In that case, some workers will learn and
enjoy rising wages, but others, including the median worker, will see their
skills become obsolete and earn stagnant or even falling wages.

Developing skills to implement new technology is not a new problem. In the past,
training institutions and labor markets sometimes took a long time to adapt to
major new technologies. For example, during the Industrial Revolution, factory
wages were stagnant for decades until technical skills and training were
standardized; when that happened, factory wages rose sharply.

Something similar seems to be happening today. Consider, for instance, graphic
designers. Until recently, graphic designers worked mainly in print media. With
the Internet, demand grew for Web designers; with smartphones, demand for mobile
designers increased. Designers had to keep up with new technologies and new
standards that continually change.

In this environment, schools can’t keep up. Most graphic arts schools are still
oriented toward print design, and much of what they teach quickly becomes
obsolete. Instead, designers have to learn on the job, but employers don’t
always provide strong incentives to do so. Employers are reluctant to invest in
learning when employees leave and technology changes. Moreover, because new
technology is often not standardized, skills learned at one job are not valuable
to other employers, so they don’t bid up wages. And employees are reluctant to
invest on their own without a robust labor market for their skills and a
long-term career path.

Yet the most talented designers teach themselves the new skills and establish
reputations that help inform potential employers. The top 10 percent of
designers command six-figure salaries in U.S. dollars or earn high hourly rates
as freelancers. Meanwhile, the wages of the median designer have changed little;
the median designer, after all, is still mainly a print designer. Employers will
pay high salaries to designers with the right skills and reputation, but until
training and labor market institutions catch up, the supply of those designers
will be limited. And for 30 years the median designer’s wage has remained
stagnant precisely because these institutions have not kept up with continually
changing technology.

> Technology has heightened economic inequality.

As a result there is growing economic inequality within the occupation: the
difference between the wages of the top 10 percent of designers and those of the
median designer has grown sharply. This pattern is seen in other occupations
affected by computers.

Chart 3 shows evidence of rising demand for select workers within
computer-intensive occupations. The blue bars show the growth in wages for the
90th percentile compared with the median worker within each occupational group.
For office and health care occupations, wages have grown much more rapidly for
the top 10 percent of workers, implying that these workers have valuable skills
while the average worker in these groups does not. To the extent that these
valuable skills are acquired through experience and education, wages have also
risen more rapidly for experienced workers compared with new hires (red bars)
and for workers with college degrees compared with high school graduates (green
bars) in computer-intensive occupations.

View Full Size
Chart 3

Tech paycheck

While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired useful
computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker has not.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).Note: Low tech includes occupations with lower
computer use, including food service, education, transportation, and
construction.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 3

Tech paycheck

While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired useful
computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker has not.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).Note: Low tech includes occupations with lower
computer use, including food service, education, transportation, and
construction.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

These data show that employers do pay higher wages, but only to workers who have
learned particular skills in computer-related occupations. Many of these workers
teach themselves and learn through job experience. But the average worker finds
it too difficult to acquire the necessary knowledge of new technologies.


POLICY IMPLICATIONS

New information technologies do pose a problem for the economy. To date,
however, that problem is not massive technological unemployment. It is a problem
of stagnant wages for ordinary workers and skill shortages for employers.
Workers are being displaced to jobs requiring new skills rather than being
replaced entirely. This problem, nevertheless, is quite real: technology has
heightened economic inequality. But the skills problem can be mitigated somewhat
by the right policy actions by firms, trade associations, and government.

For example, the U.S. materials handling association known as MHI runs a program
to encourage specialized training programs at four-year colleges, community
colleges, and even high schools. Industry associations jointly prepared a
technology “roadmap” that calls for efforts to retrain workers from other
occupations and attract demographically diverse workers to the field.

The roadmap recognizes that some key skills are not taught in schools but are
learned through experience. To foster career paths for workers who learn on the
job, the institute proposes a national center to certify such skills. The
roadmap also proposes greater collaboration and information sharing between
firms so that technology and skills can be standardized.

The information technology revolution may well be accelerating. Artificial
intelligence software will give computers dramatic new capabilities over the
coming years, potentially taking over job tasks in hundreds of occupations. But
that progress is not cause for despair about the “end of work.” Instead, it is
all the more reason to focus on policies that will help large numbers of workers
acquire the knowledge and skills necessary to work with this new technology.

James Bessen is Lecturer in Law at the Boston University School of Law; this
article draws on his forthcoming book, Learning by Doing: The Real Connection
between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth.


REFERENCE:

Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne, 2013, “The Future of Employment:
How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin Programme on the
Impacts of Future Technology working paper (Oxford, United Kingdom).

   Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne, 2013, “The Future of Employment:
   How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin Programme on the
   Impacts of Future Technology working paper (Oxford, United Kingdom).)| false
 * Search Google Scholar
 * Export Citation





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Finance & Development, March 2015
Author:
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Volume/Issue: Volume 52: Issue 001 Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN:
9781498351942 ISSN: 0015-1947 Pages: 60 DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498351942.022
Search within Journal...
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Issue Journal

TABLE OF CONTENTS


Front Matter


From the Editor: Down but Not Out


People in Economics: Finder of Financial Fault Lines - profiles Raghuram Rajan,
the prescient finance economist now steering India’s central bank


Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Education, migration, and redistribution are key elements of a
long-term solution to global unemployment


Seven Lean Years: The global economy is in slow recovery from peak unemployment
thanks to governments’ vigorous policy responses


A Matter of Size: Sub-Saharan African businesses must produce more jobs to
fulfill the region’s promise


A Long Commute: Immigrants do more good than harm when they enter a country’s
job market


Toil and Technology: Innovative technology is displacing workers to new jobs
rather than replacing them entirely


The Shrinking Middle: Labor market trends portend a paradise for some workers,
but continued purgatory for most


Picture This: Back to Work - Global unemployment has fallen, but job growth
remains sluggish


Jobless in Europe: A solution to unemployment in the euro area demands both
growth and a more flexible labor market


Power from the People: The decline in unionization in recent decades has fed the
rise in incomes at the top


Point of View: The Foremost Priority - It’s time for a recovery led by wages and
public investment


Youth Echoes


Currency Notes: Norway - Design, Democracy, and Daring


Prognosis: Rosy - When it comes to long-term growth forecasts, economists tend
to be overly optimistic


Point of View: System Malfunction - The global economy is rife with imbalances
that cannot be fixed under the present international monetary (non)system


Back to Basics: Taxes in Practice - It is hard to design a fair and efficient
revenue system


Straight Talk: A Prudent Man’s Curse - Without the right public institutions,
the temptation of power politics can imperil longer-term development goals


Reducing Informality: It may be a great slogan, but it is of little value as a
practical objective for tax reform


How to Build a Better Future for Latin America: Latin America and the Challenges
It Faces


Book Reviews



HEADINGS

 * Automation ≠ unemployment
 * New skills for new technology
 * Policy implications
 * Reference:

FIGURES

Export Figures
 * 
   View in gallery
   
 * 
   View in gallery
   Chart 1
   
   Dispensing jobs
   
   As more ATMs were installed in the United States, the number of tellers
   employed did not drop.

 * 
   View in gallery
   Chart 2
   
   Computers don’t kill jobs
   
   Jobs have grown faster in occupational groups that use computers than in the
   overall labor force.

 * 
   View in gallery
   Chart 3
   
   Tech paycheck
   
   While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired
   useful computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker
   has not.

METRICS






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 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 1

Dispensing jobs

As more ATMs were installed in the United States, the number of tellers employed
did not drop.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Sources: Ruggles and others, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version
5.0; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey; and Bank for
International Settlements, Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, various
publications.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 2

Computers don’t kill jobs

Jobs have grown faster in occupational groups that use computers than in the
overall labor force.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Chart 3

Tech paycheck

While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired useful
computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker has not.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).Note: Low tech includes occupations with lower
computer use, including food service, education, transportation, and
construction.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide



Chart 3

Tech paycheck

While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired useful
computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker has not.

Citation: Finance & Development 52, 001; 10.5089/9781498351942.022.A007

Source: Bessen (forthcoming).Note: Low tech includes occupations with lower
computer use, including food service, education, transportation, and
construction.
 * Download Figure
 * Download figure as PowerPoint slide

 * Close

 * View raw image
   

 * View raw image
   

Chart 1

Dispensing jobs

As more ATMs were installed in the United States, the number of tellers employed
did not drop.

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Chart 2

Computers don’t kill jobs

Jobs have grown faster in occupational groups that use computers than in the
overall labor force.

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Chart 3

Tech paycheck

While some select computer users in each occupational group have acquired useful
computer skills that are reflected in higher wages, the average worker has not.