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Liz Hoffman


Updated Mar 19, 2024, 6:10am EDTMar 19, 2024, 3:10am PDT
businesspoliticstech
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KEY SENATOR CRITICIZES MNUCHIN’S TIKTOK BID, TIES TO GULF MONEY

Reuters/Ahmed Yosri
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THE SCOOP

Sen. Ron Wyden, the chair of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, sharply
criticized former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and his ties to money from
the Middle East, in his effort to buy TikTok from its Chinese owner.

Mnuchin told CNBC last week that he’s assembling a group of investors to buy the
platform after the House overwhelmingly passed a bill forcing it to either be
sold within six months or banned from app stores. The White House has urged the
Senate, where the bill has powerful backers and opponents in both parties, to
move quickly.

Mnuchin gave few details on who might be part of his bidding group except to say
he was working with a “combination of U.S. investors.” But much of the $2.5
billion investment fund he raised after leaving office came from governments in
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, where Mnuchin was a frequent visitor during
his time in government.


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“I don’t see how America will be any more secure if the next owner of TikTok is
a MAGA Trump crony backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund,” Wyden told
Semafor.

“I’m absolutely concerned about the Chinese government’s access to Americans’
personal data,” he said. “But every concern that has been voiced about Chinese
influence is equally valid when it comes to a Saudi government that murdered a
Washington Post journalist after planting spyware on his wife’s phone.”

The New York Times reported that Saudi Arabia had committed $1 billion to
Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital fund, and that the governments of Qatar,
Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates were in for $500 million each. (Mnuchin has
acknowledged that his investors include foreign governments, as well as wealthy
families and insurance companies.)


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In a 2022 letter to Mnuchin’s successor, Janet Yellen, Wyden suggested that
Mnuchin may have used a swing through the Gulf in the final days of the Trump
administration to fundraise on the taxpayer’s dime. He filed paperwork for his
investment firm the day after he left office.

A Liberty spokesperson said: “As Secretary Mnuchin said on CNBC last week,
TikTok should be controlled by U.S. investors and no single investor should own
more than 10%.”

* This story has been updated to include a comment from Liberty.



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KNOW MORE

There’s no guarantee that the Senate will pass the bill or, if it does, what a
sales process might actually look like. Chinese officials have publicly
criticized the effort and privately told ByteDance, which owns TikTok, that it
would rather see the app banned in the U.S. than sold — a sign that its value to
Beijing has more to do with politics than with profits.

Blue-chip U.S. companies including Microsoft, Oracle, and Walmart were
interested back in 2020, when then-President Donald Trump tried to force a sale
of TikTok. But Mnuchin’s recent rescue of a troubled New York bank, for which he
put together $1 billion in a matter of days, has quickly burnished his image as
a credible buyer in sticky situations. And his status as a former federal
official may give him the inside track.

So, too, would the perception that he has Trump’s ear. Any seasoned watcher of
either corporate dealmaking or geopolitics knows that a sale this complicated is
unlikely to happen in as short as six months, which could push it close to or
past November’s presidential election.


AD


Caroline Anders


Mar 20, 2024, 1:23pm PDT
North America
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BOOST FOR ELECTRIC CARS AS US BRINGS IN TOUGHEST CLIMATE RULES YET



Insights from The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Semafor


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THE NEWS

A majority of new cars sold in the United States will be hybrid or electric by
2032 under a landmark climate regulation issued Wednesday that is being lauded
as one of the most significant in the country’s history.

While a more gradual shift than the Environmental Protection Agency sought, the
new tailpipe pollution limits mark a win for the Biden administration, which has
put electric vehicles at the center of its push to fight climate change.

“Today, we’re setting new pollution standards for cars and trucks,” President
Joe Biden said in a statement. “U.S. workers will lead the world on autos making
clean cars and trucks, each stamped ‘Made in America.’ You have my word.”

The emissions limits will “transform the American automobile market,” The New
York Times reported, increasing electric car sales from less than 8% of new
vehicle sales currently to the new goal of 56%.

By 2032, most new cars sold in the U.S. will likely be zero-emissions models,
which the EPA estimates will prevent the release of more than seven billion tons
of carbon dioxide over the next 30 years.


SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.


AUTO INDUSTRY SAYS EMISSIONS RULES ARE ‘STILL A STRETCH GOAL’

Sources:  
The Guardian, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal

After lobbying extensively to pump the brakes on the EPA’s initial timeline for
bringing in the new limits, the auto industry broadly welcomed the revised plan.

“The right pace for something this consequential and transformative … gives us a
chance to secure [the] manufacturing and industrial base needed for long term
success,” the president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which
represents companies producing most new cars sold in the U.S., said Wednesday.
However, he said that the rules were still “a stretch goal.”

Carmakers had warned the Biden administration that a too-fast rollout would “get
ahead of consumers,” The Wall Street Journal reported. The agreed-upon timeline
is a “recognition that the transition to electric cars will take longer than
hoped” that will give Americans time to warm to electric vehicles as production
processes are streamlined and more chargers are installed around the country,
the publication wrote.

“At the end of the day, this is going to be up to consumers,” Stephanie Brinley,
an automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility, told The New York Times.


ELECTRIC VEHICLES HAVE BECOME A DIVISIVE POLITICAL ISSUE

Sources:  
The New York Times, The Verge, Politico

Part of Biden’s calculus in making concessions to automakers was to address
concerns raised by United Auto Workers, the largest car manufacturers union in
the country, which has endorsed the president in his candidacy for the 2024
presidential election. But Republicans are trying to drive a wedge between
autoworkers and their employers, saying that Biden’s plan represents a
government overreach that will only benefit the wealthy. Democrats counter that
as well as the clear environmental benefits, aggressive support for electric
vehicles will boost the economy.

The diametrically opposed views mean voters with strong feelings about electric
vehicles are seen as likely to turn out in big numbers this November. Former
President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has railed against electric
vehicles and promised to roll back Biden’s climate programs if reelected.


FRAMING EVS EXCLUSIVELY AROUND JOB CREATION IS A MISTAKE, CLIMATE NONPROFIT SAYS

Source:  
Semafor

U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle are making a mistake by framing
support for electric vehicles exclusively in terms of how they impact jobs,
Potential Energy, a nonprofit that focuses on climate marketing, argued in a new
report. It said that “politicians of all stripes would be better off focusing
their EV-related messaging on affordability, choice, and the cars’ impact on
pollution,” Semafor’s Prashant Rao reported.

After testing messaging around electric cars, they found that the human argument
around which vehicle to buy works better than the economic case, which leaves
voters cold.

“If I’m advising a leader on how to communicate this — any leader, on both sides
— I would say, ‘Every American should have the right to make their next car a
clean car,’” Potential’s founder and CEO told Rao in an interview.

J.D. Capelouto


Updated Mar 20, 2024, 11:07am PDT
Southeast Asia
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VIETNAM’S PRESIDENT RESIGNS AFTER LESS THAN A YEAR IN OFFICE



Insights from Vietnam Weekly, The Diplomat, and Radio Free Asia


RICHARD A. BROOKS/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
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THE NEWS

Vietnamese President Võ Văn Thưởng resigned Wednesday after holding the post for
less than a year.

The announcement follows a government anti-corruption campaign that has ensnared
high-ranking members of the Communist-led government. Thưởng, who was the
second-most powerful politician in the country, is Vietnam’s second president in
two years to step down.


SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.


SWIFT DEPARTURE OF PRESIDENT UNLIKE TYPICAL VIETNAMESE POSTURE

Sources:  
Vietnam Weekly, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute

The rumor mill about a possible political shakeup in Vietnam “went into
hyperdrive” last week after a state visit from the Dutch king and queen was
postponed “due to internal circumstances,” the Vietnam Weekly newsletter wrote.
“Vietnam is usually good about preventing domestic infighting from interfering
with foreign affairs, so this was a shock.” The country typically plays down
political rumors and casts an air of stability to “keep its house tidy in front
of foreign partners’ eyes,” a fellow focused on Vietnamese politics at the ISEAS
– Yusof Ishak Institute said.


ANTI-CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN COULD HURT COMMUNIST PARTY

Sources:  
The Diplomat, Financial Times

The government’s corruption fight was initially welcomed by the public, but the
intensifying nature of the probe — some 200,000 officials have been sacked or
jailed — poses a significant threat to the perceived legitimacy of the Communist
Party of Vietnam, a U.S.-based political science professor studying Southeast
Asia wrote in The Diplomat. It “may inadvertently expose to the public the
divisions among the country’s political elite” and force them to pay closer
attention to the government. Thưởng’s resignation is sure to raise more
questions about the turmoil, especially from the private sector: “Investors have
been becoming nervous as the corruption crackdown drags on and expands to
private businesses,” the Financial Times wrote.


MOST CRITICAL DECADE FOR VIETNAM’S DEVELOPMENT

Source:  
Radio Free Asia

The shakeup comes at a critical time for the country of nearly 100 million.
Questions have swirled around the health of the 79-year-old Communist Party
leader, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, who may step down after his current term ends in 2026.
His successor “will govern during the most consequential decade of Vietnam’s
development,” Radio Free Asia wrote. The trajectories of the U.S. and China will
be especially crucial, as Vietnam depends on the superpowers for trade, while
simultaneously benefitting from investment by other countries looking for a less
risky alternative to China. If the U.S. leans toward isolationism under a second
Donald Trump term “and China becomes more chaotic, diplomacy will have to be
performed on a knife’s edge.”

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Caroline Anders


Mar 20, 2024, 10:43am PDT
politicsNorth America
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US RECORDS HIGHEST NUMBER OF ABORTIONS IN A DECADE, DESPITE BANS



Insights from The 19th, The Atlantic, and Forbes


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THE NEWS

The United States recorded its highest number of abortions in over a decade
during 2023, the first full calendar year after the Supreme Court’s decision to
strike down Roe v. Wade allowed states to ban the procedure.

An estimated 1,026,690 Americans had an abortion last year, according to the
Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit focused on reproductive rights. That was 10%
more than in 2020, the last year for which there is comprehensive data.

The Guttmacher Institute said a key factor in the rise was likely an increase in
access to telehealth since the pandemic, allowing women to obtain the abortion
pill online instead of visiting a clinic. Abortion via medication accounted for
63% of all abortions last year — up from 53% in 2020.


SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.


SUPREME COURT COULD SOON CURTAIL ABORTION PILL ACCESS

Sources:  
The 19th, The Washington Post

Next week, the country’s highest court will hear arguments in a case about
mifepristone, one of two drugs used in a medication abortion. The outcome “could
have sweeping consequences for Americans, regardless of their state’s abortion
laws,” The 19th, a news website focused on gender policy, reported.

The court will hear from anti-abortion medical providers who disagree with the
Food and Drug Administration’s decision to expand access to medication abortion
by allowing it to be prescribed up to 10 weeks into pregnancy instead of seven,
and to remove the requirement that it be administered over three in-person
doctor’s appointments, instead allowing patients to take it themselves. The
justices can’t ban the pill, The Washington Post reported, but they could
restrict access to it.


THE ACCESS GAP MIGHT BE WIDENING

Sources:  
The Atlantic, Yahoo Life

The overturning of Roe v. Wade may have convinced more women to seek abortions
as public opinion on the topic has become more favorable, experts told The
Atlantic, but it’s also widening the gap between who can access care and who
can’t. “For most Americans, abortion might be more accessible than it’s ever
been,” The Atlantic’s Rose Horowitch wrote. “But for another, more vulnerable
group, abortion is a far-off privilege.”

“What we really see is a picture of two Americas,” one expert told Yahoo Life:
One where access to abortion is gone, and one where access has improved.


DESPITE INCREASE, THERE REMAINS A MASSIVE UNMET NEED

Sources:  
Forbes, The Guttmacher Institute

“We can’t let the overall consistent number of abortions nationally obscure the
incredible unmet need and disastrous impact of abortion bans on people who
already have the least access,” the co-chair of #WeCount, an initiative by the
nonprofit Society of Family Planning that conducted its own study on abortion
rates, said in a statement.

The Guttmacher Institute agreed, emphasizing that the increase in abortion rates
doesn’t diminish how much the court’s ruling impacted the lives of Americans,
citing the rise as “important evidence that people will continue to seek
abortion care in spite of the policy barriers that anti-abortion policymakers
impose.”

Jenna Moon


Updated Mar 20, 2024, 7:18am PDT
Europe
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EU MAY ALLOW UKRAINE EASED ENTRY INTO BLOC



Insights from AFP, Politico, and Bruegel


REUTERS/Yves Herman
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THE NEWS

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will propose changes on
Wednesday to how the European Union adds new members, Politico reported. The
change would see member states eased into the bloc and given some benefits of
membership before officially joining the EU, a move that could offer Ukraine —
as well as fellow candidate nations Moldova, and countries in the Western
Balkans — some perks while they make reforms to their economies and governance
structures to align with EU standards.


SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.


EU PLAN TO LIMIT UKRAINIAN GRAIN IMPORTS FAILS

Sources:  
AFP, Politico

A plan to limit grain imports from Ukraine failed Wednesday, as European
ambassadors asked for additional time to review its impacts. The plan aimed to
address backlash from European farmers who say they are being undercut by
low-cost shipments. Tariffs on Ukrainian grain were dropped after Russia’s 2022
invasion in a bid to prop up Ukraine’s economy. The frustration of farmers,
however, has meant that Ukraine is seeing worse ties with some nations —
something that signals Russia might be winning its grain war, Politico noted.
Moscow has deliberately flooded the market with grain, driving prices down
globally. “It’s absolutely the case that Russia is using its food exports,
particularly wheat exports, as a form of soft power,” Caitlin Welsh, director of
the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, told the outlet.


ANALYSTS SEE UKRAINIAN ACCESSION AS POSITIVE FOR EU ECONOMIC GROWTH

Source:  
Bruegel

Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU is a winning scenario for both Kyiv and
Brussels, with the EU gaining some economic power at a low cost to existing bloc
members. “Both Ukraine and the EU would benefit from progressive integration of
the country into EU policies, alongside the formal accession negotiations,”
analysts at the European economics think tank Bruegel wrote this month. If
Ukraine was granted EU membership, it would cost bloc members about 0.13% of
annual EU GDP to sustain — money that would be recouped by the economic benefit
of having Ukraine in the bloc, the authors argued. For Ukraine, meanwhile,
meeting accession criteria “may raise the country from being one of the poorest
governance performers among former socialist countries to a well-governed one.”

Jenna Moon


Mar 20, 2024, 4:22am PDT
securityMiddle East
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US TO FOCUS ON RAFAH IN UPCOMING ISRAEL TALKS



Insights from The Wall Street Journal, The Times of Israel, Haaretz


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THE NEWS

An Israeli delegation is set to hold talks in Washington during which U.S.
officials are expected to try and avert a planned attack on the Gazan town of
Rafah as Israel-Hamas truce negotiations remain deadlocked.

The U.N.’s hunger monitoring system has said the humanitarian situation in Gaza
is “catastrophic” and that the enclave is on the brink of a famine, as aid has
repeatedly been blocked from entering the territory.


SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.


NEITHER SIDE WILL BUDGE ON DEMANDS

Source:  
The Wall Street Journal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to “eliminate” Hamas from Gaza,
a goal that has been Israel’s focus since the militant group’s Oct. 7 attack.
Meanwhile, Hamas is trying to retain some of its influence in the enclave after
the war ends, The Wall Street Journal reported. Netanyahu has also pushed for an
Israeli invasion of Rafah, a crowded city near the Egyptian border where
hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are sheltering. Much of the
delay hinges on Israel’s unwillingness to give Hamas any wins, one analyst that
spoke to the Journal said. “Israel knows going into those negotiations that it
lost. Any agreement that is produced is a victory for Hamas, and the goal is to
minimize that victory as much as possible,” former Israeli hostage negotiator
Gershon Baskin said.


US TRYING TO PREVENT MILITARY OPERATION IN RAFAH

Source:  
The Times of Israel

The U.S. is set to present Israel with alternative options for targeting Hamas
that does not involve a risky incursion into Rafah, which would come with a high
humanitarian cost. American officials that spoke to The Times of Israel said
that Washington will propose securing the Egypt-Gaza border as an alternative to
the ground campaign. Under the proposal, Israel would focus on preventing
weapons that could rearm Hamas militants from being smuggled over the border.
“This isn’t just us saying, ‘No you can’t do it.’ We’re saying that we’re
willing to work with you on viable alternatives that still help you achieve your
objectives,” one official said.


NETANYAHU ISN’T GOING ANYWHERE, DESPITE US FRUSTRATIONS

Source:  
Haaretz

Netanyahu has held onto power even as support from Israelis dwindles and a rift
with leaders in Washington, who have criticized his lack of action to stem the
humanitarian crisis in Gaza, grows. “It should beggar belief a man who is not
only responsible for the strategy that led Israel into the worst and most tragic
debacle of its history, is still in office,” wrote Haaretz’s Anshel Pfeffer, but
it is less surprising when that man is Netanyahu, who is “incapable of either
feeling shame or taking responsibility.” Pfeffer added: Netanyahu “sees himself
as the ultimate victim of October 7, the strong and righteous leader let down by
idiots and traitors. He has no intention of ever resigning on his own accord.”



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