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 * What we do
   What we do
   
   We ensure that Great Britain has the essential energy it needs by making sure
   supply meets demand every second of every day.
   
   Back What we do View
    * Our people
      
      We work with a whole range of experts, including engineers, academics and
      industry professionals so that we can safely deliver affordable and clean
      energy to customers. As we build a greener electricity system of the
      future our people know they are shaping the future for generations to
      come.
   
    * Our strategy
      
      Find out more about our strategy, our RIIO business plan and annual
      reports and look towards our emerging future role at the heart of a new
      Future System Operator (FSO).
   
    * Becoming the National Energy System Operator (NESO)
      
      Unparalleled change is needed to deliver clean, secure, and affordable
      energy for the country. NESO is being set up as an independent
      organisation with a view across the whole system to lead this change.
   
    * How we operate
      
      We move high voltage electricity from where it’s generated, such as a wind
      farm, through the energy system. But who else is part of the British
      electricity system?
   
    * Electricity National Control Centre
      
      From hospitals to households, telecoms to transportation, our society
      relies on electricity. Our control centre makes sure there is always a
      reliable and safe supply as we move megawatts around the country.
   
    * Electricity Markets
      
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      or are looking to brush up on market fundamentals, you’ve come to the
      right place. 
   
    * Balancing the Grid game
      
      To give you some insight into the world of balancing the grid, we’ve
      developed a game where you can attempt to keep the grid stable while
      facing some of the challenges our control room operatives experience
      daily.

 * Electricity explained
   Electricity explained
   
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   from and how it moves around Great Britain. And we want to share all that
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    * Electricity and me
      
      We have an ambition to run the grid zero carbon by 2025. And anything you
      can do to adopt greener habits will help. Become a megawatt master – in
      this section of Electricity Explained. 
   
    * How is electricity generated?
      
      The way electricity is generated is changing as we head towards a greener
      future.
   
    * How does electricity move around?
      
      Do you know your DNOs from your ESOs? And how does electricity actually
      get to your home, around the country and overseas? 
   
    * How do we balance the grid?
      
      Inertia, frequency, voltage, thermal, constraints… these are just a few of
      the factors that go into the highly complex process of balancing the
      grid. 
   
    * Power cut in your area?
      
      Experiencing a power cut? Find out what to do and who to contact.
   
    * How is electricity priced?
      
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      do we use in GB and around the world?
   
    * Monthly Insights
      
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 * Future energy
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   zero-carbon system that will take us to net zero 2050.
   
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    * Beyond 2030
      
      The Beyond 2030 report builds on top of the Holistic Network Design and
      makes a set of network recommendations throughout the 2030s. 
   
    * Our progress towards net zero
      
      Read the story of how the we have decarbonised the electricity system to
      date, offering a blueprint to other countries around the world to help
      them reduce emissions. 
   
    * Future Energy Scenarios (FES)
      
      Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different, credible
      ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050
      target.
   
    * Innovation
      
      Innovation is critical to helping us meet the challenges of transitioning
      to a zero carbon future. As we sit at the very heart of the energy system,
      we play a central role in overcoming these challenges.
   
    * Projects
      
      All of our projects contribute towards our effort to make the grid ready
      to operate with 100% zero carbon electricity by 2025.
   
    * Virtual Energy System
      
      We have launched an ambitious, industry-wide mission to digitise our
      energy system. We call it the Virtual Energy System.

 * Industry information
   Industry information
   
   Whether you’re a balancing provider looking to supply services to us, trying
   to find the latest Grid Code, or looking for the latest TNUOS charging
   guidance, you can find all the information you need in our Industry
   Information hub. 
   
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    * Balancing costs
      
      Balancing costs are those costs associated with (A) the Balancing
      Mechanism, (B) balancing services, and (C) energy trading.
   
    * Balancing services
      
      We procure services to balance demand and supply and to ensure the
      security and quality of electricity supply across Britain's transmission
      system.
   
    * Charging
      
    * Codes
      
      Our team of code administrators oversees all aspects of the code
      modification processes and related meetings. So whether you’re new to the
      process, or experienced in the way it all works, we’ll help you get to the
      information you need.
   
    * Connections
      
      In this section, we’ve got everything you need to understand the
      connections process. Including what you need to do to connect to, or make
      use of the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS).
   
    * Industry data and reports
      
      These pages contain data and support for users of the National Electricity
      Transmission System (NETS). Here you will find the latest operational
      data, forecasts, and reports.
   
    * Network access planning
      
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      co-ordinating and sanctioning the planned release of assets from the
      National Electricity Transmission System.

 * News and events
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   All the latest news from the heart of Great Britain's electricity system.
   Find out how we balance the grid, how we’re innovating for the future, and
   who the people are that are working on Britain's energy system around the
   clock. 
   
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 * Research and publications
   Research and publications
   
   Find a wide range of publications that provide energy insight and analysis
   right here, as well as information about how we're shaping the future of
   energy in the UK.
   
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    * Publications library
      
    * Network Options Assessment (NOA)
      
      The Network Option Assessment (NOA) provides our recommendation for which
      network reinforcement projects should receive investment and when. 
   
    * Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS)
      
      The Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS) is our view of future
      transmission requirements and the capability of Great Britain’s National
      Electricity Transmission System (NETS) over the next 10 years.
   
    * GB 36 Bus Electricity Transmission Network Model
      
      A 36-bus equivalent network representing the National Electricity
      Transmission System of Great Britain modelled in DIgSILENT PowerFactory.
   
    * Markets Roadmap
      
      We are developing new ways to balance electricity supply and demand and
      manage a low carbon electricity system, helping to meet net zero targets
      and minimise costs for consumers.
   
    * Summer Outlook
      
      Summer Outlook reports are designed to inform the energy industry and
      support its preparations, we also outline Great Britain’s projected
      electricity needs for the summer ahead.
   
    * Winter Outlook
      
      The Winter Outlook Report presents our view of security of supply for the
      electricity systems for the winter ahead. 
   
    * Whole electricity system
      
      Find out how we are working with stakeholders to develop a smart, flexible
      electricity system that with deliver services more efficiently and help us
      meet carbon targets.
   
    * System Operability Framework (SOF)
      
      The System Operability Framework (SOF) takes a holistic view of the
      changing energy landscape to assess the future operation of Britain's
      electricity networks.
   
    * Regional Development Programmes
      
      RDPs look across the whole electricity system to unlock more network
      capacity, reduce constraints and open new revenue streams for market
      participants. 




BREADCRUMB

 1. Home
 2. Future energy
 3. Future Energy Scenarios (FES)


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FUTURE ENERGY SCENARIOS (FES)

Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different, credible ways to
decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.

We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline, which isn’t long when
you consider investment cycles for gas networks, electricity transmission lines
and domestic heating systems.

FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the
energy system of the future.


HIGHLIGHTS

FES 2023 report



The Future Energy Scenarios publication outlines a number of credible energy
futures that mean we can continue to support the development of the energy
system.

FES in 5



For faster reading, download our FES summary document, which highlights the key
headlines and statistics from the full publication.

FES 2023 Data workbook



All the graphs, charts and supporting data published in FES 2023 from our
modelling. If using Edge you need to download the file rather than view online.

Full suite of FES 2023 documents



Download our latest FES 2023 document suite and check out the archive of older
FES documents.

Image

WATCH THE FES 2023 LAUNCH EVENT

You can now watch our FES 2023 launch event from the 10 July, featuring Fintan
Slye, Executive Director at ESO, Emma Pinchbeck, Chief Executive of Energy UK,
and Daisy Powell-Chandler, Head of Energy and Environment at Public First.

 * Watch the FES 2023 launch recording
 * Download the FES 2023 presentation slides
 * Download the ESO exhibition stand slides

Image

FES 2023 EXECUTIVE INTRODUCTION

Two years ago, the Government announced its intention for the electricity system
to be fully decarbonised by 2035. This ambitious target reinforced Great
Britain’s existing global leadership in enabling low carbon electricity
generation. The 2035 target gives us just over a decade to deliver a
world-first, requiring a major transition across industry, regulation and
government policy – a challenge that we need to meet head on.

This year’s FES continue to set out credible ways that the UK can achieve net
zero by 2050, as well as the commitment to operate a decarbonised electricity
system by 2035. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, research and
modelling, each scenario considers how much energy we might need, where it could
come from and how we continue to maintain outstanding levels of system
reliability. FES highlights one key overall theme – we must act now to achieve a
clean, secure and fair energy system for all. If we don’t, a once in a lifetime
opportunity will pass us by.

Over the coming 12-18 months the ESO will transition into the Future System
Operator – taking a broader, whole system view on how GB can deliver on its net
zero ambitions while maintaining a reliable and affordable energy supply.

KEY MESSAGES

Our key messages are built around what our analysis suggests is needed to
achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

1. Policy and delivery

Measures to reduce uncertainty are needed to ensure the UK delivers a net zero
energy system that is affordable and secure.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Net zero policy: The Government must continue to reduce investment uncertainty
around the business case for net zero-critical technologies such as Long
Duration Energy Storage (LDES), transport and storage of hydrogen and CO2, low
carbon dispatchable power and negative emissions technologies. A clear plan is
needed for the funding and development of hydrogen and CCUS projects beyond
delivery of the first industrial clusters.

Focus on heat: There is a need to accelerate both the uptake of heat pumps and
the decision on whether hydrogen will be used for large scale heating. While
some progress is being made through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, further policy
support and incentives are needed to increase uptake rates of heat pumps.
Alongside this, a clear decision on hydrogen for heating should be accelerated
and heat pump targets and incentives reviewed accordingly.

Negative emissions: Negative emissions technology is required to enable a net
zero energy system. Robust emissions accounting standards are needed to ensure
both investor and public confidence in a negative emissions market. Further
demonstration of innovative emissions removal technologies is required to reduce
uncertainties over technology and commercial readiness.

2. Consumer and digitalisation

Consumer behaviour and digitalisation are pivotal to achieving net zero but easy
access to information and the right incentives are critical.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Empowering change: There is a need to instil trust for consumers and they must
be advised on how they can best engage in the energy transition. This could be
delivered through an information campaign, supported by a national advice
service. Ensuring the provision of better information at point-of-purchase (e.g.
selection of tariffs as part of EV purchase) would enable consumers to benefit
from cost savings and maximise the system benefits. Consumers will be further
incentivised to greater levels of demand reduction through market changes that
simplify the consumer journey and reward flexible energy use.

Digitalisation and innovation: Innovation and smart digital solutions are
required to enable consumers to further benefit from energy savings at times
when they are not able to manually adjust their demand. Smart digital solutions
will enable effortless consumer participation in the delivery of a net zero
energy system. Mandating technology manufacturers to include smart capability in
their products is key to the delivery of smart homes. Further incentives and
grants can encourage greater innovation and implementation of smart digital
solutions. Successful delivery of Market wide Half Hourly Settlement will enable
consumers to participate more readily in demand flexibility.

Energy efficiency: Further emphasis is needed to harness the potential of
efficiency improvements in reducing energy demand. Energy efficiency
improvements to the construction and technology within our homes must be
accelerated. Radical overhaul is required to achieve this both in new build and
existing housing stock. Targets for minimum energy efficiency standards should
extend beyond the private rented sector. Additional incentives and grants must
be considered to ensure energy efficiency improvements are available for more
consumers.

3. Markets and flexibility

Improved market signals and new distributed flexibility solutions are key to
managing a secure, net zero energy system at lowest cost to the consumer.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Distributed flexibility: The growth of distributed flexibility (flexible energy
demand resources, such as storage, EVs, heat pumps and thermal storage,
connected at distribution level) is a key enabler to achieving net zero. A
market-wide strategy, including government targets, policy support and market
reform is required to facilitate the significant growth in distributed
flexibility. This can also provide incentives for consumers to provide Demand
Side Response, such as smart charging of EVs.

Transport flexibility: Across all future scenarios, cars are primarily
electrified, increasing electricity demand and requiring strategies to manage
how they are charged and how system costs are recovered. Increasing
implementation of smart EV charging is a no regret action to help reduce the
impact on peak demand and reduce curtailment of renewables.

Commercial trials of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) business models are required to
explore their viability and contribution system services. It also requires
current challenges to be addressed, such as the slow rollout of charging
infrastructure.

Locational signals: Market reform is needed to provide the real-time locational
signals required to optimise decisions on when and where flexible energy sources
are used. Improving locational signals has the potential to deliver significant
cost savings to consumers and support the delivery of decarbonisation targets.

4. Infrastructure and whole energy system

Benefits to the whole energy system must be considered to optimise the cost of
delivering net zero technology and infrastructure.

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Strategic network investment: Strategic and timely investment across the whole
energy system is critical to achieving decarbonisation targets and minimising
network constraints. Accelerated coordinated planning and delivery of strategic,
whole system investment through Centralised Strategic Network Planning (CSNP)
will require continued collaboration and engagement with the Government, Ofgem,
local communities, industry and the supply chain. Strategic network investment
should be enabled through reforms to the planning system, while also balancing
social and environmental impacts.

Connections reform: Connections reform is required to facilitate quicker, more
coordinated and efficient connection to the GB electricity system to deliver net
zero. Continued collaboration between Government, Ofgem and industry is
critical. The process must be future-proofed to facilitate potential
prioritisation of connections for delivery of whole system benefits and net zero
in line with strategic network planning.

Location of large electricity demands: New large electricity demands, including
electrolysers to convert electricity to hydrogen, will be required for net zero.
This demand has significant potential to deliver whole system flexibility and
reduced network constraints alongside decarbonisation. A coherent strategy is
required to ensure large electricity demands are located where they provide the
biggest benefit to consumers and the whole energy system.


FES 2023 SECTIONS AND WEBINARS

Net zero



Reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 is critical to limiting
the negative impacts of climate change.  In this section, we look at potential
emissions reductions across our Future Energy Scenarios (FES). 

Flexibility


Energy systems need to match supply and demand; we call this energy balancing.
Energy system flexibility is the ability to adjust supply and demand to achieve
that balance. In this chapter we explore the different Net Zero flexibility
solutions potentially available.

The energy consumer



The energy consumer covers the residential, industrial, commercial and transport
sectors and considers how decarbonisation affects individual consumers.

The energy system



The energy system explores how total GB demand is met using decarbonised energy
sources such as electricity, hydrogen, natural gas and bioenergy.

FES SECTIONS

Our FES publication is divided into four sections, referred to as chapters
within the document itself.

BRIDGING THE GAP TO NET ZERO

The Future Energy Scenarios (FES) Bridging the Gap to net zero project takes a
closer look at what needs to be done to set ourselves on the path to net zero.

FES DOCUMENTS

Download our latest FES 2023 Document suite and check out the archive of older
FES documents.

REGIONALISATION OF FES

We believe that there are aspects of decarbonising the whole energy system that
are driven mainly by local factors. These cannot be fully understood using only
a top-down a

LATEST NEWS AND ENERGY ARTICLES

Read our latest news and view our recent Thought Pieces written by our team of
Insight Leads exploring a range of subjects in greater depth.

ABOUT FES

With an ambitious target for net zero emissions by 2050, our energy system will
need to transform rapidly while continuing to deliver reliability and value for
consumers.

BE INVOLVED AND STAY CONNECTED WITH FES

Be part of the conversation. We welcome your feedback.

FES NEWSLETTER ARCHIVE

On this page, you can view previous newsletters that we have published. 




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