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Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more precisely, they
only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where they will fail) Last
post on that $100,000 Uber paper
BEST MEETUP SWAG: OVHCLOUD
Posted on October 22, 2022 6:00 PM by Bob Carpenter
Mitzi gave a talk last night at the Paris PyData Meetup. It was hosted by
OVHcloud, a cloud provider based in Paris. Not only was the setting amazing
(window ringed conference room with a thunderstorm outside with lightning bolts
shooting behind Mitzi), they passed out the best swag ever. Check it out:
At first I thought the thing in the lower left was one of those old school
erasers. But then I realized it was a combination beer key and pizza cutter. How
cool is that for a meetup? And naturally, this meetup had both beer in bottles
and pizza. But no chance to try it out, as the staff supplied beer keys and had
cut all the pizza.
Yes, that’s a pair of socks on top. I remember having lunch at a conference with
Stu Shieber years ago, when I had plenty of swag from the startup I was at
(SpeechWorks). Stu said we should pass out branded sweatpants, because everyone
passed out t-shirts and he had to buy his own sweatpants.
Then there’s the quintessential French writing device—the Bic 4-color pen. Bic’s
a French company, so you see these everywhere. They were exotic in the states
when I was a kid and I used to get one for Xmas every year. There’s also a pack
of biodegradable playing cards, a tote bag, and a really nice notebook.
Thanks, OVHcloud, both for hosting and the super-cool swag.
This entry was posted in Statistical computing, Zombies and tagged swag by Bob
Carpenter. Bookmark the permalink.
3 THOUGHTS ON “BEST MEETUP SWAG: OVHCLOUD”
1. Nik Vetr on October 22, 2022 10:00 PM at 10:00 pm said:
Ooh nice! I’ll be at my first non-retreat conference since COVID kicked off
next week (ASHG), and my first time at this specific one… will have to see
what sort of swag they have to offer (some of the events sound like they’ll
be rather fancy, e.g. one of them will involve a band called “Maroon 5”, who
I’m told are quite popular. So I have high hopes).
Those 4-color BIC pens are my favorite — probably have a few dozen floating
around the house & in various bags. Though mine are all blue, not yellow.
They also make a version with graphite (sacrificing the green color). Very
convenient to have them all at hand when writing and annotating notes or
drafting a figure idea! I’ll still reach for eg a Sakura if drawing or
writing a card / letter, but for working stuff out it’s hard to beat the
versatility.
Reply ↓
2. David in Tokyo on October 23, 2022 2:36 AM at 2:36 am said:
The correct term for beer key is “church key”. Sheesh. Whippersnappers
nowadays. Grumble.
Reply ↓
* Bob Carpenter on October 23, 2022 5:30 PM at 5:30 pm said:
I’d say, “I’ve heard it both ways,” but I can’t recall ever hearing the
term “church key.” I wish I were young enough (if not brash enough) to be
considered a whippersnapper, but I’ve been of legal beer-drinking age in
the US for nearly 40 years! I’m sure I’ll soon be experiencing the
Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, where I hear it all the time, because it’s
definitely more popular on the internet than “beer key.”
Reply ↓
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1. Unanon on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
24, 2022 12:07 AM
We need to disambiguate a little. There is "cereal" and then there is
"breakfast cereal." "Cereal" is just processed grass…
2. Antonio on Some things, like cubes, tetrahedrons, and Venn diagrams, seem
so simple and natural that it’s kind of a surprise when you learn that
their supply is very limited.October 23, 2022 11:36 PM
Who needs Venn diagrams for n>3? But else in the case of n=2, it bothers me
that they are symmetrical:…
3. Doug Davidson on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 8:47 PM
Yes, I used that section (11.1) in class (an introductory methods course
for undergraduate psychology), but it was a little…
4. Carlos Ungil on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 6:48 PM
Thanks for the references! If I understand correctly the generalization is
to consider the maximum likelihood for each composite hypothesis…
5. Nick Adams on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 6:25 PM
On p-Values and Bayes Factors - Leonhard Held and Manuela Ott
(https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-statistics-031017-100307)
Edwards derived the likelihood ratio of two point…
6. Bob Carpenter on Best Meetup swag: OVHcloudOctober 23, 2022 5:30 PM
I'd say, "I've heard it both ways," but I can't recall ever hearing the
term "church key." I wish I…
7. Bob Carpenter on Last post on that $100,000 Uber paperOctober 23, 2022 5:20
PM
The only way people are going to stop hoarding data is if they get rewarded
for sharing. That's not going…
8. Phil on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
23, 2022 5:09 PM
If no non-cereal soups were mostly liquid and grains, you’d have a point.
But that’s not the case, so you…
9. Carlos Ungil on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 4:30 PM
How do you get that 65%? Maybe that's not what you're refering to but after
a quick look at [1]…
10. Nick Adams on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 3:49 PM
Regarding the 84% result being too high: a likelihood approach (after A.W.F
Edwards) gives a probability of about 65%. So…
11. Andrew on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 2:32 PM
Doug: I don't know if this is quite what you're looking for, but you could
take a look at Section…
12. Doug Davidson on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 2:23 PM
"What I’m saying is that they depend on assumptions, and we don’t always
check these assumptions." Would it be possible…
13. Anoneuoid on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 1:24 PM
Thinking more about "plurality", I'd say it is more of a hierarchy. From
left to right we trade accuracy/information for…
14. Anoneuoid on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 12:13 PM
The examples in the OP fail before we even get to the statistics step
though: You have a hypothesis that…
15. Dale Lehman on Last post on that $100,000 Uber paperOctober 23, 2022 10:55
AM
So who ultimately takes responsibility? The researcher can disclose
funding, use proprietary data, get published and say they did nothing…
16. OliP on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 9:34 AM
This reminds me of that point you made somewhere Andrew about pluralism:
most statistical methods can produce usable results in…
17. David Marcus on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 23, 2022 8:36 AM
1. The model is wrong. Don't blame the inference procedure. 2. Are there
any examples of NHST "working" that can't…
18. Andrew on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 3:46 AM
Jbayes: Yes, that's the point! In real life, we do know more than "nothing"
about theta. If theta is the…
19. jbayes on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 3:30 AM
If they know its a good or bad bet, then they know more than someone who
knows nothing about theta.…
20. Andrew on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 23, 2022 3:06 AM
Jbayes: No, you wouldn't break in. You'd lose big, because people on the
other side would take your bad bets…
21. David in Tokyo on Best Meetup swag: OVHcloudOctober 23, 2022 2:36 AM
The correct term for beer key is "church key". Sheesh. Whippersnappers
nowadays. Grumble.
22. Nik Vetr on Best Meetup swag: OVHcloudOctober 22, 2022 10:00 PM
Ooh nice! I'll be at my first non-retreat conference since COVID kicked off
next week (ASHG), and my first time…
23. somebody on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 8:26 PM
Somebody: we need to distinguish between culinary vs botanical fruit. This
is a very tired argument that Kenji Lopez Alt…
24. jbayes on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 22, 2022 5:43 PM
What would happen if you routinely took one data point from N(0,1), and
made the kind of bet indicated? Seems…
25. Andrew on You better check yo self before you wreck yo selfOctober 22, 2022
5:23 PM
Jonathan: I added a link to the latest version of the paper. It will never
be published, but we have…
26. Jonathan Dushoff on You better check yo self before you wreck yo
selfOctober 22, 2022 3:19 PM
Is the preprint published yet? It's hard to get grumpy about people not
using these methods if they're not peer-reviewed…
27. Carlos Ungil on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 22, 2022 3:00 PM
The point is that calling that a 95% posterior interval does really,
really, really sound like a probability.
28. psyoskeptic on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 22, 2022 2:41 PM
"...it's really their fault." That depends on the someone. Even a very
carefully written description of the findings could easily…
29. Joahua on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
22, 2022 2:24 PM
Thought about it, but refrained.
30. Carlos Ungil on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 22, 2022 12:53 PM
[things => thinks]
31. Carlos Ungil on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them
(more precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases
where they will fail)October 22, 2022 12:52 PM
> In practice, what do we do? We use the Bayesian inference selectively,
carefully. We report the 95% posterior interval…
32. Anoneuoid on Statistical methods that only work if you don’t use them (more
precisely, they only work well if you avoid using them in the cases where
they will fail)October 22, 2022 12:43 PM
Still, it’s a problem, if you’re willing to routinely offer 4-1 bets on
data that are consistent with noise (which…
33. Jonathan (another one) on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong
assumptions not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t
believe it.October 22, 2022 12:04 PM
It's so good to see one of these without a discussion of sandwiches.
34. Joshua on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
22, 2022 10:09 AM
Unanon - Sssms to me.yYou're kinda doing the same thing as Chipmunk. When I
use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said…
35. Eklavya on Newton’s Third Law of ReputationsOctober 22, 2022 10:07 AM
The reputational blowback seems to be real, Dan Ariely' column in WSJ has
ended:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-decades-worth-of-social-scientific-advice-11663871509
The problem, as you have…
36. Joshua on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
22, 2022 9:24 AM
> You cut in and claim there are are essential distinctions you can draw,
but those distinctions also turn out…
37. Unanon on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
22, 2022 9:13 AM
Somebody: we need to distinguish between culinary vs botanical fruit. This
is a very tired argument that Kenji Lopez Alt…
38. Joshua on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions not
because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe it.October
22, 2022 9:01 AM
Congee may be the most commonly eaten food on the planet.
39. somebody on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 8:20 AM
Is polenta a soup or a cereal? Is shrimp and grits a soup or a cereal?
40. somebody on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 8:18 AM
OK, but usually not as main ingredient Haha, fruit is also not the main
ingredient in cereal! You said: “served…
41. Olaf Zimmermann on The psychology of thinking discretelyOctober 22, 2022
6:15 AM
My astigmatism is getting the better of me ... I should wear glasses when
I'm typing.
42. Olaf Zimmermann on The psychology of thinking discretelyOctober 22, 2022
6:09 AM
"http://www.lel.ed.ac.uk/~gpullum/EskimoHoax.pdf" Sorry about the first
one, but I normally sendlinks with angeld brackets, which doesn't seem to
work here.
43. Olaf Zimmermann on The psychology of thinking discretelyOctober 22, 2022
6:07 AM
44. Ron Kenett on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 4:47 AM
Another example where mapping alternatives with meaning equivalence versus
alternatives with surface similarity is needed. The reason why it is…
45. Anoneuoid on The psychology of thinking discretelyOctober 22, 2022 3:51 AM
Really this deserves its own post by andrew imo, but see eg:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duhem%E2%80%93Quine_thesis Verification is
impossible (affirming the consequent) and…
46. chipmunk on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 2:30 AM
"So that would mean that soup didn’t exist in the 1700s?" I bet in some
parts of the world it…
47. Anonymous on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 2:16 AM
"make use of tomatoes, peppers, limes, lemons\." OK, but usually not as
main ingredients, and please note: "in culinary terms,…
48. chipmunk on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 2:01 AM
Phil says: ' “Grains are optional in soup”, OK, but so what? ' So what?
Grains are 95% or more…
49. somebody on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 1:34 AM
Many soups make use of tomatoes, peppers, limes, lemons. I would be shocked
if there wasn’t a soup with any…
50. chipmunk on From soup to Bayes: Make inferences using strong assumptions
not because you “believe” your model but because you don’t believe
it.October 22, 2022 1:16 AM
"You’re just dressing up opinions as facts." That's patently absurd! :) Go
to a grocery store and find a can…
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