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Column | Capital Letter


THE FED THINKS TIME IS ON ITS SIDE. THAT COULD GET AWKWARD.

The economy’s resilience could be pushing a potential rate cut into the fall,
setting up an awkward choice for the central bank on the eve of the 2024
election.



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has staunchly promised to act in the
long-term interest of the economy, disregarding short-term politics — meaning
the Fed also shouldn’t hold off on rate cuts just because there’s an election
coming up. | Jonah Elkowitz for POLITICO

By Victoria Guida

05/01/2024 05:00 AM EDT

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Victoria Guida is an economics reporter covering the Federal Reserve, the
Treasury Department and the forces driving economic policy. Her column, CAPITAL
LETTER, demystifies the policies, people and institutions that shape the
financial system and the broader economy.

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell weighs how soon to cut interest rates,
the economy’s resilience is giving him the luxury of time.

He seems determined to use it. But the wait won’t be fun for him.



Fed officials will keep rates at their current levels Wednesday, and there are
two reasons why. First, they’re not sure yet that they’ve conquered price
spikes. Second, they’re not especially worried that they’re about to tip the
U.S. into a downturn.



That combination of factors could stick around well into 2024, steadily pushing
back the timeline for the first rate cut and prolonging the threat that the high
price of debt will break something.

Powell says pending election has no impact on interest rate decisions

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And that’s where the timing gets super awkward.

If inflation resumes its downward trend — or if unemployment starts to spike —
Fed officials are ready to ease off on interest rates. But if neither of those
happen in time to lower rates in July, that could push the decision of whether
to cut to September.

In other words: just ahead of Election Day, drawing exactly the kind of
political spotlight that the Fed hates to be in.

Former President Donald Trump, who appointed Powell as chair, has already said
the central bank chief will lower rates this year to “help Democrats” and will
surely attack him for any such move. Just as uncomfortable for the Fed: the
stock market would likely surge, potentially giving a boost to President Joe
Biden’s dreary economic approval ratings.

Former President Donald Trump, who appointed Jerome Powell as chair, has already
said the central bank chief will lower rates this year to “help Democrats” and
will surely attack him for any such move. | Alex Brandon/AP

At the same time, Powell has staunchly promised to act in the long-term interest
of the economy, disregarding short-term politics — meaning the Fed also
shouldn’t hold off on rate cuts just because there’s an election coming up.

“We are a non-political organization that serves all Americans. It would be
wrong for us to start taking politics into account,” Powell said on CBS’ 60
Minutes in February. “It’s not easy to get the economics of this right in the
first place.”




If Powell really means that, he should lower rates whenever it’s warranted by
the state of the economy. Still, there’s also no guarantee that officials will
feel comfortable lowering rates even by September.

It’s not just the election. This saga could take years, and Powell’s term isn’t
up until 2026.

The economy has withstood higher debt costs for long enough now that investors
believe the Fed might not even need to cut rates by that much over the next
couple of years.

“The rates market thinks when the Fed cuts, they will essentially be cutting
down to 4 percent and stay there pretty much indefinitely,” Mark Cabana, head of
rates strategy at Bank of America Global Research, said to me.

For comparison, the central bank’s main policy rate, currently above 5 percent,
was near zero for most of the last 15 years.

That’s a pretty radical shift from what everyone has gotten used to.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing — investors expect rates to stay higher because
they expect the economy to be relatively strong. But the longer we have
borrowing costs at these levels, the more they’ll determine what the economy
looks like in a lasting way.

High rates raise the bar on the kind of returns investors expect to see when
investing in a new project, with huge ripple effects for prospective businesses,
new technology and homebuilding — all pretty crucial to shaping our lives.

They keep pressure on more fragile sectors, such as owners of office space that
have been bleeding cash since the pandemic ushered in a new era of remote work.
And they raise more acute questions about the health of midsize banks whose
investments were hurt by the jump in rates.

“The bigger risk is not just that it would put the slow squeeze on investment
and on growth-supporting investment, but … that it could cause a crisis,” said
Julia Pollak, chief economist at job site ZipRecruiter.

A customer stands outside of a shuttered Silicon Valley Bank headquarters on
March 10, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. The large regional lender's collapse
last year brought two other financial institutions down with it. | Justin
Sullivan/Getty Images

Still, there’s a reason why Fed policymakers feel the flexibility to stand pat:
the consequences of high rates have been strikingly small so far. Silicon Valley
Bank, a large regional lender, collapsed last year and brought two other
financial institutions down with it. But little else has broken — either in the
financial sector or in the real economy.

And as long as growth keeps chugging along — it came in lower in the first
quarter, but that was mainly due to the trade deficit — the Fed will take it
slow on lowering borrowing costs.

Of course, Powell might not have as much time as he thinks. Economic momentum
tends to feed on itself; if employers squeezed by higher debt costs have less
room to pay employees and turn to layoffs, those people then have less to spend,
which means fewer customers, which means fewer workers are needed.

And unexpected financial calamities can spiral out of control quickly.

As Skanda Amarnath, executive director of the worker advocacy group Employ
America, put it to me, these things “don’t necessarily move nicely, slowly,
linearly.”


MOST READ


 1. PROSECUTORS: DOCS IN BOXES SEIZED FROM MAR-A-LAGO WERE INADVERTENTLY JUMBLED


 2. THE CAVALRY COMES FOR TRUMP


 3. ‘THE REPUBLICANS ARE BEING TOTAL HYPOCRITES’


 4. NOEM: ‘THEY’RE JUST ATTACKING ME LIKE CRAZY RIGHT NOW.’


 5. HICKS OFFERS A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR TRUMP’S DEFENSE

 * Filed under:
 * Interest Rates,
 * Federal Reserve,
 * Federal Reserve Board,
 * Jerome Powell,
 * Columns,
 * Column | Capital Letter


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   whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a
   product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you
   visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of
   (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
   
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 * UNDERSTAND AUDIENCES THROUGH STATISTICS OR COMBINATIONS OF DATA FROM
   DIFFERENT SOURCES 447 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user
   profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your
   interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising)
   content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which
   target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain
   contents).
   
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 * DEVELOP AND IMPROVE SERVICES 532 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction
   with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and
   to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of
   audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or
   improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
   
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 * USE LIMITED DATA TO SELECT CONTENT 120 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
   
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   Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such
   as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device
   type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example,
   to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
   
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USE PRECISE GEOLOCATION DATA 258 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Use precise geolocation data


With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500
metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.

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ACTIVELY SCAN DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION 119 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS PURPOSE

Actively scan device characteristics for identification


With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be
requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed
fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes
explained in this notice.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT AND DETECT FRAUD, AND FIX ERRORS 504 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent
activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct
any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery
of content and ads and in your interaction with them.

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DELIVER AND PRESENT ADVERTISING AND CONTENT 492 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to
ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to
facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.

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MATCH AND COMBINE DATA FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES 351 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with
other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for
instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card
in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in
this notice.

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES 327 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet
connection on both devices).

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IDENTIFY DEVICES BASED ON INFORMATION TRANSMITTED AUTOMATICALLY 477 PARTNERS CAN
USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of
your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the
purposes exposed in this notice.

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