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LIZ CHENEY’S DOOMSDAY PREDICTION ON A THIRD TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL BID

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Updated 6:18 PM EDT, Mon October 24, 2022
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Cheney says she will leave GOP if Trump wins 2024 nomination
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CNN  — 

Rep. Liz Cheney thinks that if the GOP nominates Donald Trump for president
again in 2024, it will be the end of the Republican Party. Or at least the end
of the Republican Party as we currently think of it.

“I think that the party has either got to come back from where we are right now,
which is a very dangerous and toxic place, or the party will splinter, and there
will be a new conservative party that rises,” Cheney, a Wyoming Republican,
predicted during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Which is a big deal!

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After all, we’ve had a two-party dynamic in this country for a very long time –
so the notion that one of the two major parties would splinter into two is
something that would make history.

The question then becomes whether Cheney is right.

Start here: There is, without question, a vocal anti-Trump wing within the
Republican Party. Cheney, the vice chair of the January 6 committee, is perhaps
the best known of that group. But there are, without question, more members of
that group, including Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan
and a few others.

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What’s harder to tell is how big of a group that actually is.

The answer depends on what poll you look at.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed that just 1 in 10 Republicans
viewed Trump either somewhat or very unfavorably. By contrast, a majority – 56%
– in that same poll said they had a “very” favorable impression of Trump.

An AP-NORC poll offers a slightly more optimistic view for the likes of Cheney.
Roughly 6 in 10 (57%) of Republicans in that poll said that they wanted Trump to
run again for president in 2024, while 43% said they did not. Of course, saying
that you don’t want Trump to run again is different than believing that a new
party should be formed to accommodate those Republicans who cannot and will not
support Trump.

Polling aside, the numbers suggest that Cheney’s splinter party would face long
odds.


LATEST ELECTION NEWS





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reelection and will campaign for herMore on the midterms





Cheney lost her GOP primary for Wyoming’s sole House seat – badly – to a
Trump-backed candidate. Kinzinger is retiring, but would have likely lost had he
run again. Of the other eight House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for
his role in the January 6, 2021, attack at the US Capitol, six more have either
retired or lost their primaries.

In the Senate, Trump is targeting Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, the only one
of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him who is on the ballot this
November.

And the 2022 primary season more broadly affirmed Trump’s lasting power within
the GOP. Trump-backed candidates won Senate primaries in Pennsylvania, Arizona,
Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina. (Of J.D. Vance, the Ohio Republican Senate
nominee, Trump told a crowd at a rally last month: “J.D. is kissing my ass he
wants my support so bad.”)

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How powerful is a Trump endorsement?
04:15 - Source: CNN

Trump’s preferred candidates also won GOP primaries for governor in Arizona,
Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And even in Maryland, a
Trump-backed candidate beat Hogan’s endorsed candidate.

It is not too much to say that Trump is trying to purge the Republican Party of
dissenting voices. And that it is working. Trump’s record of crushing opposition
has led Republican leaders – most notably House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy –
to fall in line with Trump, acquiescing to his false claims about the 2020
election.

There are few data points to suggest that a viable new conservative party could
emerge – or at least emerge quickly – if Trump does run and win the Republican
nomination in 2024.

There are voices and pockets of opposition, yes. But it’s also beyond debate
that that group is less powerful today than it was a year ago or two years ago.

That’s not to say that a rival third party – organized around conservative
principles – couldn’t emerge at some point down the line. It could – especially
if Trump loses in 2024, relegating Republicans to another four years out of
White House power.

But the fact remains that, as of today, there is scant evidence that there is a
robust group of anti-Trump (or pro-conservative) voices that would form the core
of another party in opposition to the current iteration of the GOP.


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We share this information with our Affiliates and Vendors on the basis of
consent. You may exercise your right to consent to a specific purpose below.
Additionally, you may exercise your preferences for consent at a vendor level in
the “Vendors” link under each purpose. These choices will be signalled to our
vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
Privacy Policy
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PLEASE NOTE: CONSENT TO STORE AND/OR ACCESS INFORMATION ON A DEVICE IS REQUIRED
TO CUSTOMIZE AND IMPROVE YOUR EXPERIENCE

STORE AND/OR ACCESS INFORMATION ON A DEVICE

Store and/or access information on a device

Cookies, device identifiers, or other information can be stored or accessed on
your device for the purposes presented to you.

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SELECT BASIC ADS

Select basic ads

Ads can be shown to you based on the content you’re viewing, the app you’re
using, your approximate location, or your device type.

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SELECT PERSONALISED ADS

Select personalised ads

Personalised ads can be shown to you based on a profile about you.

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CREATE A PERSONALISED ADS PROFILE

Create a personalised ads profile

A profile can be built about you and your interests to show you personalised ads
that are relevant to you.

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SELECT PERSONALISED CONTENT

Select personalised content

Personalised content can be shown to you based on a profile about you.

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CREATE A PERSONALISED CONTENT PROFILE

Create a personalised content profile

A profile can be built about you and your interests to show you personalised
content that is relevant to you.

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MEASURE AD PERFORMANCE

Measure ad performance

The performance and effectiveness of ads that you see or interact with can be
measured.

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MEASURE CONTENT PERFORMANCE

Measure content performance

The performance and effectiveness of content that you see or interact with can
be measured.

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APPLY MARKET RESEARCH TO GENERATE AUDIENCE INSIGHTS

Apply market research to generate audience insights

Market research can be used to learn more about the audiences who visit
sites/apps and view ads.

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DEVELOP AND IMPROVE PRODUCTS

Develop and improve products

Your data can be used to improve existing systems and software, and to develop
new products

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT FRAUD, AND DEBUG

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent fraudulent activity, and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely.

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TECHNICALLY DELIVER ADS OR CONTENT

Always Active

Your device can receive and send information that allows you to see and interact
with ads and content.

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MATCH AND COMBINE OFFLINE DATA SOURCES

Always Active

Data from offline data sources can be combined with your online activity in
support of one or more purposes

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES

Always Active

Different devices can be determined as belonging to you or your household in
support of one or more of purposes.

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RECEIVE AND USE AUTOMATICALLY-SENT DEVICE CHARACTERISTICS FOR IDENTIFICATION

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends, such as IP address or browser type.

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STRICTLY NECESSARY COOKIES

Always Active

These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched
off in our systems. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these
cookies, but some parts of the site will not work.

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