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AMERICANS SUPPORT EXPORTING DRONES TO UKRAINE — WITH A CAVEAT

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Commentary Order from Chaos


AMERICANS SUPPORT EXPORTING DRONES TO UKRAINE — WITH A CAVEAT

Paul Lushenko and Sarah Kreps Thursday, May 25, 2023


Order from Chaos
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Drones have taken center stage during the war in Ukraine. Initially, Ukraine
capitalized on the Turkish-manufactured TB2 Bayraktar drone to help disrupt
Russia’s invasion, including by sinking the Moskva, Russia’s acclaimed guided
missile cruiser. In the second half of 2022, Ukraine took the unprecedented step
of building an “army of drones” to consolidate earlier gains, incorporating both
smaller, tactical drones as well as civilian drones modified for military use.
At the same time, the United States has sent over 1,000 “kamikaze” Switchblade
drones, sometimes referred to as “loitering munitions,” to Ukraine as part of
its security assistance packages worth $40 billion. As the war has dragged on,
Ukrainian officials have requested more advanced drones from the United States,
which U.S. policymakers have been reluctant to provide.


PAUL LUSHENKO


LIEUTENANT COLONEL - U.S. ARMY


PH.D. CANDIDATE - CORNELL UNIVERSITY

Twitter LushenkoPaul


SARAH KREPS


NONRESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW - FOREIGN POLICY, STROBE TALBOTT CENTER FOR SECURITY,
STRATEGY, AND TECHNOLOGY, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGY
INITIATIVE

Twitter sekreps

Why is this the case? Considering a strong plurality of Americans support
sending military aid to Ukraine, U.S. policymakers should feel welcome to send
advanced attack drones, such as the MQ-9 Reaper long-endurance, high-altitude
surveillance drone, to the country. Indeed, research shows that “U.S. officials
routinely invoke polling data to enhance the legitimacy of their policy
actions.” This has notably been the case in the bipartisan effort to transfer
sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, including the M1A1 Abrams tank.

Yet U.S. officials point to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which
was established in 1987 to prevent the proliferation of potential delivery
vehicles for ballistic and nuclear weapons, as a reason why they cannot send
these drones to Ukraine. The Biden administration also references its new
Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy, which considers the potential human
rights consequences of arms sales, to limit the export of drones.

But do Americans believe that domestic policy and international norms should
constrain the export of armed drones, among other forms of military aid? To
answer this question, we carried out an original survey of Americans. We
investigated whether domestic and international constraints shape public
attitudes, or whether other considerations, such as other exporters, the nature
of the importer, the intended use of drones, or previous military aid, matter
more.

Our study reveals that legal commitments guiding drone exports do not shape
public support despite these measures being the basis for Washington’s continued
restraint. Rather, two considerations shape public support for drone exports:
the recipient country and purpose of use. Americans prefer to trade drones to
perceived allies and that their intended use be non-lethal. While policymakers
have the responsibility to do what they believe is in the public interest, they
also acknowledge they have to be responsive to voter preferences. Not only do
our results show Americans support drone exports, especially to Ukraine, but
they also show that Americans are indifferent to domestic policy and
international norms that policymakers often cite to restrain drone exports. This
suggests that U.S. citizens do not think they matter much.


HOW DO WE STUDY PUBLIC OPINION?

To probe U.S. citizens’ support for drone exports, we varied five attributes
that may affect public attitudes for drone exports. First, we rotated the
importing country, drawing on research that shows trade often tracks with
security alliances. Second, we alternated the use of drones, capitalizing on a
study that suggests the public may support drone exports if the capability is
used for non-lethal versus lethal purposes. Third, we randomized previous
military aid, not including drones, to assess the escalatory potential of drones
compared to other weapons.


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Fourth, we randomized other drone exporting countries, allowing us to study
whether international competition shapes public support for drone sales. We
measured respondents’ understanding of international competition by gauging
their support for drone exports in terms of other countries that are leading
proliferators of drones globally. Finally, we presented respondents with
different export governance measures, shifting between the MTCR and CAT Policy
(the aforementioned policies designed to prevent arms proliferation and protect
human rights), to assess how the relevancy of these instruments moderates public
support for drone exports.

After reading a hypothetical drone export scenario that mixed these attributes,
we asked respondents to gauge their support for the export of drones using a
five-point scale, with one corresponding to “strongly oppose” and five
corresponding to “strongly support.” We rescaled the responses from zero to one,
reflecting the percentage of respondents who support drone exports by each
attribute-level.


WHAT SHAPES PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR DRONE EXPORTS?

Contrary to policymakers’ frequent references to the constraints imposed by
export governance measures, we find that public support for drone exports is not
conditioned by a consideration of domestic policy or even international norms.

Note: The black dots represent the mean support by attribute-level, and the
whiskers represent 95% confidence intervals or the margin of error. Source:
Authors’ data; graphic created by Paul Lushenko.

Rather, we find that public support for drone exports is shaped by two
considerations. First, Americans care most about the recipient country. If the
country is perceived to be an ally, whether the respondent was correct or not,
the respondent’s willingness to support drone exports rises. Americans are most
supportive of drone exports to Ukraine (62%), for example, in comparison to
Germany (59%) or Japan (57%). Interestingly, over 56% of respondents identified
Ukraine as an ally, which is comparable to respondents’ perceptions of allies
who have formal defense treaties with the United States, including Germany (52%)
and Japan (50%). Americans were least supportive of drone exports to Saudi
Arabia (46%) despite 28% of Americans believing that Saudi Arabia is an ally of
the United States.

Second, Americans also care about the intended use of drones. We find that the
public is less supportive of drone exports used for lethal purposes. Public
support for drone exports is highest if the capability is used for seemingly
innocuous reasons, including humanitarian assistance (59%), while it is lowest
if the capability is used in terms of conflict, namely strikes (53%). Drones
used for intelligence-gathering splits the difference, at 55% approval, which is
closer to levels of public support for the export of drones used for strikes.
This latter finding implies that Americans support the export of drones to
Ukraine, but with a caveat. As one participant noted, policymakers should ensure
that drones do not “risk escalation to direct conflict with Russia.” This is
consistent with other feedback, with one respondent arguing that “Russia is in
the wrong, but we should not be interfering in such a blatant way.”

Our results also show that the public is no more or less reluctant to export
drones than other forms of traditional military aid, such as tanks that are
“physically present and visible,” when determining their level of support to the
export of drones. Whether, or which, other countries are also exporting drones
has little effect on public support for American exports.


A CALL TO ACTION FOR U.S. POLICYMAKERS?

Taken together, our findings point to a potential disconnect between public and
U.S. policymakers’ support for drone exports, particularly to Ukraine. Yet our
results should not be interpreted as a “green light” for drone sales.
Policymakers have a duty to implement policies that they believe are good for
the country. As such, they often point to the CAT Policy and MTCR to constrain
drone exports, reflecting a concern for the risks of proliferation.

Policymakers might well be right. Opposition groups in some countries have used
drones against their own national government’s leaders, and authorities in other
countries have targeted their political rivals. But our analysis suggests that
these concerns may not be shared by Americans, especially when it comes to
exporting attack drones to Ukraine. And, as Steven Pifer notes, “the Kremlin’s
red lines — never clearly articulated — appear less stringent than some in the
West evidently believe. There remains space for expanded U.S. and Western
military assistance to Kyiv that would not cross the lines that appear to have
emerged over the past year.” Indeed, concerns over escalation in Ukraine due to
U.S. military aid have softened over time. While tanks where once perceived as
too provocative to provide Ukraine, risking a direct conflict between Russia and
the United States, they are now lauded as a “game-changer.”

As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, policymakers have much to consider. They
are already opening the door to providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine after
months of denied requests. Even if the public endorses this move, signaling
support to the transfer of more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, only policymakers
can decide whether sending armed drones should follow.


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