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DataKind tackles the world’s toughest challenges with data science and AI.



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 * About UsMenu Toggle
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   * Our Community
   * For Media
 * Our WorkMenu Toggle
   * Our Approach
   * DataDive Events
   * Landscaping the Future
   * Resources
 * Our DomainsMenu Toggle
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FORECASTING WATER DEMAND IN CALIFORNIA WHEN EVERY DROP COUNTS


MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT | CALIFORNIA


OBJECTIVES

 * Develop a “proof of concept” water demand forecasting model using flow data
   at the microzone level for potential future scaling to other retailers in the
   California Data Collaborative, a unique water manager-led public private
   partnership that brings together utilities across the state to leverage data
   to help water managers ensure reliability.  


FINDINGS

 * Created data infrastructure and dashboards to forecast water demand at the
   microzone level in Moulton Niguel Water District, saving the agency an
   estimated $5 million in avoided capital storage costs


QUESTION

Moulton Niguel Water District (MNWD) provides water, recycled water, and
wastewater service to approximately 170,000 people across several cities in
Southern California where droughts have plagued local communities for the past
several years. Like many areas in the region, MNWD does not have access to local
water supplies so must bear the expense of importing all of its drinking water
supply from the Colorado River or the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. It also
supplements this with recycled water, treated water that would otherwise run out
to sea, for irrigation and other non-potable uses.

Facing the worst drought California has seen in the past 500 years, MNWD
approached DataKind for help to more precisely and accurately forecast water
demand to improve pricing, expand conservation programs and implement
initiatives to increase the efficiency of water transportation throughout its
network.


WHAT HAPPENED

In a DataCorps project sponsored by Bloomberg, Data Ambassador Will High and a
team of volunteers started off by diving into the data, including MNWD’s past 12
years of water usage data, weather data and census data on household
characteristics. Specifically, MNWD wanted to forecast demand for its irrigation
customers using high volumes of recycled water. If they could more efficiently
manage and anticipate peak irrigation water demand, they could avoid having to
import expensive potable water as a supplement.

This kind of short term demand forecasting is commonly used in the energy
sector, but has not been widely adopted by water utilities in the U.S. The
DataCorps team hoped to bring the same approach to MNWD to help manage recycled
water demand, inform better conservation programs and improve pricing for its
customers.

After several months of analysis and work, the team created an open source
dashboard to predict recycled water demand at the microzone level in Moulton
Niguel Water District:

 

Check out and contribute to the underlying open source code.

The blue line is forecasted demand, shown with a confidence band. If the blue
line shows any chance of reaching or exceeding the maximum supply estimate,
which is the red line, this signals a warning to the MNWD analyst. The analyst
can then use this to better manage future resources by reaching out to the
largest water consumers to request that they reduce usage for the period or
shift their schedules.


NEXT STEPS

MNWD is part of the California Data Collaborative, a unique water manager-led
public private partnership that brings together utilities across the state to
integrate data and deploy tools like this to help water managers ensure
reliability. They hope to scale this tool across other water retailers through
the California Data Collaborative to more efficiently transport water throughout
the California water system. With accurate short term demand forecasting,
California water managers will be able to adjust the timing and routing of water
through their network to plan for peak needs and schedule the movement of water
around peak electric prices.

The Collaborative was honored by the White House for its innovative use of data
to promote water efficiency and management. On a statewide level, MNWD believes
these types of data-driven efforts could help California create a more
sustainable level of urban water use and prepare for future potentially worse
droughts.


LEARN MORE

 * Read this blog from Moulton Niguel Water District
 * Meet the team in the project’s kickoff blog!
 * Learn more about the California Data Collaborative
 * Check out the team’s dashboard and contribute to the open source code!

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