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JOE BIDEN THROWS ISRAEL UNDER THE BUS IN A SAD PLOY TO WIN ON ELECTION DAY
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UN’S SUMMIT WILL AGAIN PUSH MULTI-TRILLION DOLLAR ‘CURES’ THAT ARE WORSE THAN
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Published Nov. 29, 2023, 6:03 p.m. ET
People walk near a logo for the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit in Dubai. AP
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The spectacle of another annual United Nations climate conference gets underway
Thursday in Dubai.
Like Kabuki theater, performative set pieces lead from one to the other:
politicians and celebrities arrive by private jets; speakers predict imminent
doom; hectoring NGOs cast blame; political negotiations become fraught and
inevitably go overtime; and finally, the signing of a new agreement that
participants hope and pretend will make a difference.
This circus has repeated since the 1990s. Despite 27 previous conferences with
iterations of ominous speeches and bold promises, global emissions have
increased every year except once, during the economic shutdowns of COVID.
This year is likely to see higher emissions than ever before.
Almost every rich country preaches far more than it delivers. This is
exemplified by the European Union, which has promised more than anyone else, yet
— when forced by Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine to cut off gas imports —
went looking in Africa for more oil, gas and coal. Meanwhile, almost every poor
country understandably prioritizes prosperity, which means abundant, cheap and
reliable energy — which still means fossil fuels.
Underpinning the climate summit farce is one big lie repeated over and over:
that green energy is on the verge of replacing fossil fuels in every aspect of
our lives.
This exaggeration is today championed by the International Energy Agency, which
has turned from an impartial arbiter of energy data to the proponent of the
far-fetched prediction that fossil fuels will peak within just seven years.
The claim ignores the fact that any transition away from fossil fuels is
occurring only with enormous taxpayer-funded subsidies. And while major energy
players like Exxon and Chevron are moving back to investment in fossil fuel, big
bets on green energy have failed spectacularly.
Over the past 15 years, alternative energy stocks have plummeted in value, thus
sending the pensions of ordinary workers tumbling due to virtue signaling
finance companies while general stocks have increased more than four-fold.
What won’t be acknowledged in the United Arab Emirates — because it has never
been acknowledged at a global climate summit — is the awkward reality that while
climate change has real costs, climate policy does, too.
In most public conversations, climate change costs are vastly exaggerated. Just
consider how every heat wave is depicted as an end-of-the world, cataclysmic
killer, while the far greater reductions in deaths from warmer winters pass
without being remarked on. Yet the costs of climate policy are bizarrely
ignored.
Analyzing the balance between climate and policy costs has been at the heart of
the study of climate change economics for more than three decades. Renowned
economist William Nordhaus is the only climate change economist recognized with
a Nobel prize. His research shows that we should absolutely do something about
climate change: early cuts in fossil fuel emissions are cheap and will reduce
the most dangerous temperature rises.
But his work also shows that highly ambitious carbon reductions will be a bad
deal, with phenomenally high costs and low additional benefits.
Climate activists, who insist we should listen to the science, have consistently
ignored this research and encouraged rich world leaders to make ever-greater
climate promises. Many leaders have even gone so far as to promise net-zero
carbon emissions by 2050.
Despite this likely being the single costliest policy ever promised by world
leaders, it was made without a single peer-reviewed estimate of the full costs.
Earlier this year, a special issue of the scientific journal Climate Change
Economics made this analysis.
This astonishing work has gone almost entirely unreported by any major news
outlet. It shows that by mid-century, pursuing “net zero” will lead to benefits
— meaning the avoided costs from climate change — of about $1 trillion each
year.
SEE ALSO
AS A SCIENTIST, I’M NOT ALLOWED TO TELL THE FULL TRUTH ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
But the costs would be much, much higher. Three different modelled approaches
all show far higher costs than benefits for every single year throughout the
21st century and far into the next. By 2050, the annual costs of the policy
range between $10 and $43 trillion. That’s 4-18% of global GDP.
Consider that the total tax intake of all governments across the world today is
about 15% of global GDP — and politicians would potentially have us spend more
than that.
Across the century, the benefit is 1.4% of global GDP while the cost averages
out at 8.6% of global GDP. Every dollar in cost delivers perhaps 16 cents of
climate benefits. Clearly, this is an atrocious use of money.
The only thing that could avoid this summit being a retread of 27 other failures
is if politicians acknowledge the real cost of net zero policy — and instead of
making more carbon cut promises, vow to dramatically increase green energy
research and development.
This would help innovate the price of low-carbon energy below that of fossil
fuels so every country in the world will want to make the switch.
Instead of subsidizing today’s still-inefficient technology and trying to brute
force a transition by pushing up the price of fossil fuels, we need to make
green technologies genuinely cheaper.
20
What do you think? Post a comment.
Sadly, that seems a far-fetched hope. Instead, this climate summit looks set to
be another wasted opportunity producing yet more hot air.
Bjorn Lomborg is President of the Copenhagen Consensus and Visiting Fellow at
Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His new book is “Best Things First.”
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* 2020 Comments
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* climate
* climate change
* fossil fuel
* united nations
* 11/29/23
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