www.rand.org Open in urlscan Pro
130.154.3.8  Public Scan

Form analysis
3 forms found in the DOM

GET /search.html

<form method="get" action="/search.html" class="velocity-search" role="search" aria-label="Site-wide"><label for="search-box" class="access">Site-wide Search</label><input name="query" id="search-box" class="query" type="search"
    placeholder="search"><button class="submit search-submit" name="search-submit" type="submit" id="search-submit"><span class="access">Search</span></button></form>

POST

<form class="subscribeForm" method="post" data-componentpath="/content/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA830-1/jcr:content/par/product" data-subscriptionpath="/content/rand/newsletters/rand-news-bulletin">
  <label for="emailproduct" class="access">Email</label><input type="email" name="emailproduct" id="emailproduct" class="email" required="" placeholder="Email address"><button class="btn">Sign Up</button>
</form>

POST

<form class="subscribeForm" method="post" data-componentpath="" data-subscriptionpath="/content/rand/newsletters/rand-news-bulletin">
  <label for="email" class="access">Email</label><input type="email" name="email" id="email" class="email" required="" placeholder="Email address"><button class="btn">Sign Up</button>
</form>

Text Content

 * Skip to page content

Objective Analysis. Effective Solutions.
Toggle Menu


SITE-WIDE NAVIGATION

 * About RAND
   * RAND at a Glance
   * Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
   * RAND History
   * Leadership
   * Organizational Structure
   * Contacts
   * Locations
   * Quality Standards
   * Educational Opportunities
   * Employment
 * RAND Campaign
 * Press Room
 * Events


 * RESEARCH
   
   RESEARCH AREAS
   
    * Children, Families, and Communities
    * Cyber and Data Sciences
    * Education and Literacy
    * Energy and Environment
    * Health, Health Care, and Aging
    * Homeland Security and Public Safety
    * Infrastructure and Transportation
    * International Affairs
    * Law and Business
    * National Security and Terrorism
    * Science and Technology
    * Workers and the Workplace
   
   TRENDING TOPICS
   
    * Artificial Intelligence
    * Gun Violence
    * Ukraine
    * Racial Equity
    * Mental Health and Illness
    * Media Literacy
    * Global Security
    * Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
   
   All Topics Browse Reports
   
   RESEARCH DIVISIONS
   
    * RAND Army Research Division
    * RAND Australia
    * RAND Education and Labor
    * RAND Europe
    * RAND Health Care
    * RAND Homeland Security Research Division
    * RAND National Security Research Division
    * RAND Project AIR FORCE
    * RAND Social and Economic Well-Being
   
   FEATURED RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
   
    * RAND International
      * Center for Asia Pacific Policy
      * Center for Global Risk and Security
      * Center for Middle East Public Policy
      * Center for Russia and Eurasia
    * RAND Gulf States Policy Institute
   
   Research Departments


 * LATEST INSIGHTS
   
   REPORTS
   
   /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/reports
   
   
    * SUPPORTIVE HOUSING PROGRAM BROKE THE JAIL-TO-HOMELESS CYCLE AND MOSTLY
      PAID FOR ITSELF
   
   
    * SECURING U.S. ELECTIONS
   
   BLOG POSTS
   
   /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/blogPosts
   
   
    * RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE: MUDDLING THROUGH
   
   
    * LEARNING, RELEARNING, AND NOT LEARNING THE LESSONS OF COVID-19
   
   MULTIMEDIA
   
   /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/multimedia
   
   
    * ADDRESSING VACCINE HESITANCY WITH RESEARCH
   
   
    * THE POLICY CURRENTS PODCAST


 * POLICY EXPERTS
   
   ALL EXPERTS
   
   SPOTLIGHT
   
    * DARA MASSICOT @MASSDARA
      
      Commentary: Russian Forces in Ukraine: Muddling Through
   
    * DANIEL M. GERSTEIN @DANIEL_GERSTEIN
      
      Commentary: Learning, Relearning, and Not Learning the Lessons of COVID-19
   
   BY RESEARCH AREA
   
    * Children, Families, and Communities
    * Cyber and Data Sciences
    * Education and Literacy
    * Energy and Environment
    * Health, Health Care, and Aging
    * Homeland Security and Public Safety
   
    * Infrastructure and Transportation
    * International Affairs
    * Law and Business
    * National Security and Terrorism
    * Science and Technology
    * Workers and the Workplace


 * CAPABILITIES
   
   Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services,
   systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that
   includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms.
   
    * Capabilities Overview
    * RAND Solutions
   
   WHO WE WORK FOR
   
    * Public Sector
    * Philanthropic Sector
    * Private Sector
   
   WORK WITH US
   
    * Explore Business Contacts
   
   ABOUT RAND RESEARCH
   
    * Disciplinary Expertise
    * Quality Standards
    * Methodological Innovation
   
   FEATURED SOLUTIONS
   
   /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/caseStudies
   
   
    * IMPROVING PSYCHOLOGICAL WELLBEING AND WORK OUTCOMES IN THE UK
   
   
    * MANAGING ESCALATION IN CRISIS AND WAR
   
   
    * GETTING TO KNOW MILITARY CAREGIVERS AND THEIR NEEDS
   
   
    * PLANNING FOR THE RISING COSTS OF DEMENTIA


 * GRADUATE SCHOOL
   
   The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D.
   program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public
   policy research organization—the RAND Corporation.
   
    * About PRGS
    * Admissions
    * Academics and Degree Program
    * Students
    * Faculty
   
   
   FEATURED VIDEO ON PRGS.EDU
   
   OVERVIEW: PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL
   
   STUDENT SPOTLIGHT
   
    * LISA BERDIE
      
      Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate
      School
   
    * DIANA Y. MYERS
      
      Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate
      School


 * ABOUT

 * 中文(简体)
 * العربية
 * Sign In Sign out
 * Cart


Toggle Search
Site-wide SearchSearch
 1. RAND
 2. Published Research
 3. Research Reports
 4. >RR-A830-1

The authors consider a hypothetical situation in which China is nearing the
point of global primacy. Within such a context, the authors explore the prospect
of systemic conflict. To help illuminate how such a war might unfold, they
examine trends in warfare and geopolitics, the behavior of select past great
powers, and patterns in interstate war. From these data, they formulate two
scenarios of low- and high-intensity systemic conflict.

Read Online


THE RETURN OF GREAT POWER WAR

Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China

by Timothy R. Heath, Kristen Gunness, Tristan Finazzo

 * Related Topics:
 * China,
 * Global Security,
 * Low-Intensity Conflict

 * Citation
 * Synopsis (print-friendly)
 * Embed

 * Share on Facebook
 * Share on Twitter
 * Share on LinkedIn

 * Download
 * Purchase


DOWNLOAD


DOWNLOAD EBOOK FOR FREE

FormatFile SizeNotes PDF file 3.7 MB
Technical Details »

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

More


PURCHASE


PURCHASE PRINT COPY

 FormatList Price Price Add to Cart Paperback156 pages $25.00 $20.00 20% Web
Discount


RESEARCH QUESTIONS

 1. How might China's security goals change if it were to engage in systemic
    conflict with the United States?
 2. How might the People's Liberation Army (PLA) operate and modernize its
    forces in such a situation?
 3. Where and how might conflict involving Chinese and U.S. forces unfold?
 4. What distinctive features of the Chinese military might enable or impede its
    ability to fight a systemic war with U.S. forces?

Through a careful synthesis of current and historical data on relevant factors,
anticipated trends, and research-grounded speculation, the authors analyze
several scenarios of systemic U.S.-China conflict under hypothetical conditions
in which China has neared the point of global primacy. Drawing on academic and
research findings regarding the potential trajectory of international security
and warfare in coming years, China's approach to future warfare, relevant
experiences of preceding great powers, and patterns in interstate wars, the
authors explore the possibility of a U.S.-China war of power transition.

The authors develop two scenarios of systemic U.S.-China conflict. The first
scenario features a low-intensity conflict that unfolds across much of the
world, across many domains, and over many years. The second features a
high-intensity war that evolves out of the low-intensity war. The high-intensity
war scenario envisions aggressive actions by both countries to destroy the
warfighting capability of the adversary and carries an extremely high risk of
escalation to the most destructive levels. Both scenarios occur within the
context of a deeply fragmented international situation in which the U.S. and
Chinese militaries experience immense strain from sustaining the war effort
while grappling with an array of nontraditional threats and responding to
demands for aid from embattled partners. Although their analysis concerns a
hypothetical conflict situation in which China has neared global primacy, the
authors' findings could inform defense planning for potential contingencies even
today.


KEY FINDINGS

 * Systemic U.S.-China conflict would likely extend across the globe and to all
   domains, including cyberspace and outer space. Such a conflict would take a
   chronic, systemic form that persists, possibly for years. The conflict would
   end only when one side or the other concedes the fight and acknowledges its
   subordination to the other.
 * The U.S. and Chinese militaries could find themselves under immense strain in
   a systemic conflict owing to the competing demands to sustain the war effort,
   respond to a broad array of acute transnational threats, and help partner
   nations cope with their own security challenges.
 * Low-intensity war could feature extensive fighting conducted primarily
   through partner nations and nonstate groups. The escalation risk would remain
   high because either side might tire of the inconclusive nature of such
   fighting and seek more aggressive actions to bring the war to a conclusion.
 * To fight U.S. forces in a high-intensity war, the PLA might favor operations
   that rely on lower-cost, lower-risk weapons and on such methods as long-range
   precision strike, cyber operations, and support for irregular forces.
 * Although such a war might begin with more modest war aims in mind, the
   temptation to escalate would be difficult to resist, owing to the underlying
   drive to dominate the other side. Fighting could feature extensive Chinese
   missile strikes throughout the Indo-Pacific region aimed at shattering U.S.
   military power.


RECOMMENDATIONS

 * Planners should consider a broader range of contingencies for low- or
   high-intensity war with China, which could carry out combat options beyond
   such flashpoints as Taiwan.
 * Planners should consider the prospect of U.S.-China conflict less as a single
   battle or clash over a specific flashpoint than as a series of sequentially
   related, geographically dispersed clashes between U.S.- and Chinese-aligned
   forces that span many domains. Such conflict could last for years and
   severely stress a U.S. military already addressing competing demands for
   security assistance from allies and partners and potentially tackling severe
   transnational threats as well.
 * The United States should consider bolstering its ability to wage
   low-intensity war, which is a more likely scenario for U.S.-China conflict
   than a high-intensity war.
 * Planners should ensure U.S. ability to defend and secure vital choke points
   in the Middle East and along the Indian Ocean.
 * Planners should focus on alliance building and on weapons and platforms that
   help gain the information advantage and mitigate long-range strike
   capabilities.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

 * Chapter One
   
   Introduction

 * Chapter Two
   
   Geopolitical and Military Trends

 * Chapter Three
   
   Insights from the Wars of Past Global Leaders

 * Chapter Four
   
   Strategic Rivalry: Patterns in Crisis, Escalation, and Great Power Conflict

 * Chapter Five
   
   How the People's Liberation Army Might Prepare for a Systemic U.S.-China War

 * Chapter Six
   
   A Low-Intensity U.S.-China Conflict Scenario

 * Chapter Seven
   
   A High-Intensity U.S.-China Systemic Conflict Scenario

 * Chapter Eight
   
   Conclusion


RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY

 * RAND National Security Research Division

This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and
conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the
RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports
present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges
facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer
review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This
representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use
only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking
directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to
reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for
commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please
visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and
decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not
necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.


DOCUMENT DETAILS

 * Copyright: RAND Corporation
 * Availability: Available
 * Print Format: Paperback
 * Paperback Pages: 156
 * List Price: $25.00
 * Paperback Price: $20.00
 * Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-0816-8
 * DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA830-1
 * Document Number: RR-A830-1
 * Year: 2022
 * Series: Research Reports


EXPLORE


RELATED TOPICS

 * China
 * Global Security
 * Low-Intensity Conflict


BROWSE BY SERIES


BROWSE BY AUTHORS


STAY INFORMED

RAND Policy Currents

Get weekly updates from RAND.

EmailSign Up


CITATION

Format:
 * Chicago Manual of Style
 * RAND Corporation Style Manual

Heath, Timothy R., Kristen Gunness, and Tristan Finazzo, The Return of Great
Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China.
Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA830-1.html. Also available in
print form.
Heath, Timothy R., Kristen Gunness, and Tristan Finazzo, The Return of Great
Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China,
Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-A830-1, 2022. As of August 12, 2022:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA830-1.html
Download Citation (BibTeX) Download Citation (RIS)
 * Save to My RAND
 * Email
 * Print
 * Share on Facebook
 * Share on Twitter
 * Share on LinkedIn


ABOUT

The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to
public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and
more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and
committed to the public interest.

 * RAND History
 * Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
 * Leadership
 * Research Integrity
 * Career Opportunities

 * Santa Monica, CA
 * Washington, DC
 * Pittsburgh, PA
 * New Orleans, LA
 * Boston, MA
 * Cambridge, UK
 * Brussels, BE
 * Canberra, AU


CONNECT


CONTACT US

 * Contact Us
 * Locations


I AM INTERESTED IN

 * Jobs at RAND
 * Media Resources
 * Congressional Resources
 * Doing Business with RAND
 * Supporting RAND
 * Educational Opportunities
 * Alumni Association


FOLLOW

 * RAND Corporation on Facebook
 * RAND Corporation on Twitter
 * RAND Corporation on LinkedIn
 * RAND Corporation on YouTube
 * RAND Corporation on Instagram
 * RAND Corporation RSS Feeds
 * RAND Corporation mobile applications


STAY INFORMED

Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the
issues that matter most.


STAY INFORMED

RAND Policy Currents

Get weekly updates from RAND.

EmailSign Up
View all email newsletters


RESOURCES

 * Multimedia
 * Latest Reports
 * Browse by Author
 * RAND Classics
 * Databases and Tools


SITE INFORMATION

 * Site Map
 * PRIVACY POLICY
 * Support Policy
 * Feedback
 * Help

1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, California 90401-3208
RAND® is a registered trademark. © 1994-2022 RAND Corporation.