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SUBSIDY REMOVAL: SPENDING ON PETROL MAY JUMP 250% TO N8TN

8th May 2023

Group Managing Director of NNPCL, Mele Kyari

By  Okechukwu Nnodim

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Petrol consumers may pay about N8.4tn for Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called
petrol, between July and December 2023 once the Federal Government stops subsidy
on PMS in June, latest findings and industry data showed.

This represents about 250 per cent increase from the N2.4tn PMS consumers would
spend during the period if the government chose to retain the subsidy regime.

Oil marketers explained that the average cost of petrol could rise to about
N700/litre from July, should fuel subsidy be brought to an end in June as
projected by the Federal Government.

The development means that the expense by Nigerians for fully deregulated petrol
could rise by N6tn during the six month period, going by the insistence of the
government that fuel subsidy would end in June.



The Group Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited,
Mele Kyari, in February, stated that over 66 million litres of PMS was pumped
daily into the market by NNPC Limited to keep the country wet.

With a projected average cost of N700/litre once subsidy is removed, it implies
that Nigerians would pay about N46.2bn daily for petrol, which translates to
approximately N1.4tn monthly and N8.4tn in six months (July to December 2023).

“If the refineries are not working and we are going to depend on imports, then
the price of petrol may rise even above the N700 or N750 that is being
projected,” the President, Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association
of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, told our correspondent.



He added, “This is because it is going to depend on the dollar rate and crude
oil cost. When you check the landing cost, logistics, overhead, profit, etc, you
might be looking at about N800, though the average is pegged at N700.

“And that is if we continue to depend on imports. Now, this calculation is based
on when we get the product at the approved Central Bank of Nigeria dollar rate,
and not at the over N740/$ black market price.

“If the dollar is accessed at the black market rate, then you can double that
N700/litre average price once subsidy is removed. So you should be looking at
between N1,400 to N1,700/litre. This is why we must get our refineries working.”

Buttressing the position of PETROAN, the Secretary, Independent Petroleum
Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abuja-Suleja, Mohammed Shuaibu, explained that
though it was vital to halt the subsidy regime, implementing this without
functional refineries would definitely lead to high PMS price.

“Maybe the incoming government will have a proper way of stopping fuel subsidy.
How can you stop subsidy when your refineries are not working? By the time they
remove subsidy and the refineries are not working, Nigerians should be ready to
buy fuel at N700 or N800/litre

“The sole importer of this product is NNPC and the demand is high. The price in
some parts of the East currently is above N300/litre. By the time the subsidy is
removed and there is full deregulation, the landing cost alone could hit over
N400, and after all other things are added, Nigerians should be ready to pay
about N700/litre.”

Subsidy controversy




About two weeks ago, the National Economic Council, in Abuja, asked the Federal
Government to put the June deadline for petroleum subsidy removal on hold,
pending the review of existing plans to provide palliatives for Nigerians.

The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, disclosed
this to State House correspondents shortly after the valedictory NEC meeting
presided over by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo at the Council Chambers of the
Presidential Villa, Abuja.

She also stated that there might be a need to send a supplementary budget to the
National Assembly if the incoming administration aligned with the decision to
extend subsidy removal.

But last week, it was reported that the Federal Government was proceeding with
the planned removal of fuel subsidy by the end of June, contrary to reports that
the exit date for the subsidy removal had been put on hold.

According to the report, the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National
Planning insisted that there had been “no change in the overall policy direction
regarding the petrol subsidy envisaged by June 2023.”

The Special Adviser Media and Communications to the Minister of Finance, Budget
and National Planning, Yunusa Abdullahi, was quoted in the report to have
explained that what happened at the NEC was that the subsidy removal committee
needed to be expanded to include teams from the incoming administration and the
state governors.

“By the principles and letters of the 2023 Appropriation Act and the PIA laws,
there is no provision for subsidy after June 2023,” Abdullahi reportedly stated.



He said that some members of the incoming government were “brought into the
National Economic Council meeting so as to consolidate on that decision of fuel
subsidy removal.”

Additional N6tn payment

Findings showed that Nigerians would pay an additional sum of about N6tn within
the six-month period of July to December 2023, should petrol price hit an
average of N700/litre once subsidy on the commodity stops in June.

The cost of subsidised petrol since January this year has been moving upwards
despite the government’s insistence that it never approved any increase in the
pump price of PMS.

The price moved from N165/litre in the fourth quarter of 2022 to N175 in the
same year. It then rose to N185/litre in January this year. PMS currently sells
at N194/litre in retail outlets operated by NNPC.

Other mega stations dispense the commodity at N195/litre, while the cost ranges
from N200 to N300/litre in independent filling stations.

Related News
 * Postponement of subsidy removal disappointing, says Magnus Abe
 * $800m new loan and PMS subsidy removal
 * Subsidy removal: Marketers plan 30,000 gas stations, seek CBN loans

Oil marketers, however, put the average cost of petrol so far in 2023 at
N200/litre, which implies that Nigerians would spend an estimate of N13.2bn
daily by consuming 66 million litres of the subsidised commodity every day.



This translates to about N396bn in one month and about N2.38tn in the first six
months of this year.

Hence, the difference between the costs of the product when subsidised in the
first half of 2023 (N2.38tn), and when fully deregulated in the second half of
this year (N8.4tn) is an estimated N6.02tn.

This means that Nigerians should brace up to pay an additional sum of about N6tn
for petrol from July to December this year, should the incoming government halt
the fuel subsidy regime.

Operators react

The debate around subsidy removal also elicited diverse reactions among oil
marketers and economic experts. While some insisted that refineries must be
functional before subsidy is removed, others argued that the policy must end
now.

“We have all come together and written a law, which is the Petroleum Industry
Act 2021, and it basically says petrol should be sold at market prices. Even if
fuel subsidy was going to be temporary, we’ve been doing it for ages till this
period.

“We have moved from a situation in which subsidy payment was in thousands, to
when it was in millions per annum, to billions per annum, and now we are told
that this year we are to spend about N6tn on subsidy.



“I am sure that in our hearts we all know that if we invested that N6tn in
sustainable programmes that will grow the economy, it is a better way to go than
to burn it in fuel subsidy. We all know this and so it must stop,” the Executive
Secretary, Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria, Clement Isong, stated.

He said the “first thing that has to be done by the incoming government in the
downstream oil sector, is the implementation of the PIA,” stressing that the PIA
“is a law and the entire essence of putting our collective wisdom into law is so
that people who want to invest can do so without fear.”

PENGASSAN speaks

Reacting to the issue, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of
Nigeria maintained its position on why it was important to stop the subsidy
regime.

In March, PENGASSAN called on the Federal Government to stop subsidising petrol,
as well as ensure the speedy rehabilitation of Nigeria’s refineries.

PENGASSAN’s President, Festus Osifo, had made the call while speaking with
journalists at the National Executive Council meeting of the association in
Abuja.

Asked whether PENGASSAN was in support of fuel subsidy removal in the absence of
any functional domestic refinery, Osifo had replied, “Yes!”




Osifo’s telephone was switched off when contacted based on the latest position
of government, but the General Secretary, PENGASSAN, Lumumba Okugbawa, insisted
that the association’s position on the matter had not changed.

When told about the decision of the Federal Government reached during the NEC
last week, and asked for the reaction of PENGASSAN on the issue, Okugbawa said,
“Actually there’s nothing to say about it, our position still remains the same.

“What the government is trying to do is that they don’t want to make decisions
for the incoming administration that is taking over on May 29. And how many days
do you have from that date to June? Is just two days apart.

“So I think it is just a political statement. So let the incoming administration
settle down and then set the ball rolling. We know the impact of subsidy on this
government, that it spends so much on subsidy.”

The PENGASSAN leader, however, stated that there might not be need for subsidy
had it been Nigeria had enough local production of refined petroleum products.

“So whether you remove it or not, we should know that when it is removed, our
people will have to brace up and face it. And if you don’t remove it, the
government too will have to brace up and spend money,” Okugbawa stated.

Also speaking on the issue, the National Public Relations Officer, Independent
Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chief Ukadike Chinedu, said the
issue of subsidy removal should be suspended.



“We are not saying that subsidy should not be removed. What we say is that
issues concerning subsidy removal should be properly addressed. Those issues
mentioned by oil and gas stakeholders including IPMAN, PENGASSAN, NUPENG, should
be addressed.

“Some of them include having functional refineries in Nigeria and the
establishment of modular refineries, so as to be able to cushion the effect of
the dependency on the importation of petroleum products.”

Ukadike explained that if the country continued petroleum products imports, it
would be a serious drain on the naira. “This is because a lot of naira will be
pursuing the few dollars in the country and this will definitely lead to high
inflation. The oil sector and petroleum products affect the prices of
commodities.

“So we also want to charge the incoming government to critically look at the
factors that inhibit subsidy removal, and ensure that they are addressed,” the
IPMAN official stated.

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