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AIRFINANCE JOURNAL DUBLIN 2023


AGENDA

Here’s what’s scheduled for the event.
Viewing in Greenwich Time
17 January 2023
Chair’s opening remarks
09:00-09:10 GMT


Addressing the macro challenges: forecasting global recession, inflation, and
oil prices
09:10-09:40 GMT

Adam Pilarski
Senior Vice President
Avitas

Key figures from the industry present short ‘Ted Talks’ where they forecast
macro issues relating to the global economy.

 * Forecasting the risk of global recession and the potential impacts of a
   significant reduced cash flow on the industry
 * What would inflation levels upwards of 20% mean for the aviation finance
   market and pricing? 
 * Gaining clarity on oil price projections for Q1 and Q2 and planning for cost
   structures


Unpacking the signals: preparing for growth with turbulence on the horizon
09:40-10:10 GMT

Steven Udvar-Hazy
Executive Chairman of the Board
Air Lease Corporation
Steven Townend
Chief Financial Officer
BOC Aviation
Greg Lee
Global Head of Transportation Banking
Goldman Sachs
Aoife Hafner
Head of Forecasting and Portfolio Planning
SMBC Aviation Capital

Industry leaders discuss the impact of the macroeconomic environment on growth.

 * What are the market signals telling us about Q1 and Q2?
 * Understanding fuel prices and their impact on airline cost structures 
 * Assessing hedging strategies to deal with rising interest rates 
 * Weighing up the impact of ongoing currency pressures on emerging markets
 * Assessing inflation against disposable incomes and demand elasticity 
 * How susceptible are airlines and lessors to supply chains challenges related
   to inflation? 


Interview with Aengus Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, Aercap
10:10-10:35 GMT

Aengus Kelly
Chief Executive Officer
Aercap

Interview with Andy Cronin, Chief Executive Officer, Avolon
10:35-11:00 GMT

Andy Cronin
Chief Executive Officer
Avolon

Coffee and Networking Break
11:00-11:15 GMT


Lessor keynote panel: defining the leasing model for the next decade
11:15-12:00 GMT

Ted O’Byrne
Chief Executive Officer
Avilease
John Plueger
Chief Executive Officer and President
Air Lease Corporation
James Meyler
Chief Executive Officer
Orix Aviation
Norman Liu
Chief Executive Officer
Nordic Aviation Capital

Our lessor keynote panel will see lessor CEOs defining the traits which allowed
them to come out of repeated black swan events having proven their robustness in
the industry. What does it take to be a leading lessor and where is the lessor
industry heading?

 * What elements of the investment grade lessor’s business model makes them so
   robust? 
 * Recovering P&Ls throughout recovery: reinforcing underwriting standards and
   raising lease rates
 * How important is a wide diversification of airline customer base? 
 * Are the days of fixed leases over? 
 * Is it a necessity for lessors to be rated BBB- and tapping the public debt
   markets to be robust? 
 * How can lessors rationalise investment in an overcrowded EVTOL market? 
 * Evaluating whether there is further lessor consolidation on the horizon – is
   consolidation a prerequisite for growth? 
 * Have constant black swan events proven that lessors will take 60+ percent of
   the market share in the next decade?


The fleet-finance needs of 2023: deleverage approaches, fleet planning and
liability management
12:00-12:45 GMT

Christine Rovelli
Senior Vice President, Finance & Fleet Management
Finnair
Steven Zaat
Chief Financial Officer
Air France-KLM
Ken Morge
Senior Vice President - Finance and Treasurer
Delta Air Lines
Ricardo Baker
Chief Financial Officer
Aeromexico

Our expert panel of Treasurers and CFOs talk deleveraging approaches, getting
rid of covid debt, fleet planning and liability management.

 * Analysing conservative and aggressive strategies for deleveraging covid debt
 * How are airlines approaching liability management during the recovery phase? 
 * Forecasts for treasury yields and interest rates
 * What hedging and risk management strategies are European carriers using to
   deal with a strong US dollar? 
 * Analysing funding strategies 
 * What approaches are airlines taking to repair their balance sheet in
   preparation for growth? 
 * Will capital expenditures be widening or is there a focus on streamlining
   fleets? 


Lunch Break
12:45-13:45 GMT


The Leaders Exchange
12:45-13:45 GMT


The Leaders Exchange is an invite only private forum, providing a platform for
30 leaders from across the industry to benchmark, problem solve and discuss
industry headwinds. Participants in the Leaders Exchange will be challenged to
actively find solutions to a number of issues through roadmaps and discussion.


Terms, tenors and structures: will the private debt market remain competitive?
13:45-14:15 GMT

Marjan Riggi
SMD, Global Head of Transportation and Commercial Finance
KBRA

This panel will explore how borrowers are evaluating funding options.

· What will happen to the private bank market when the capital markets reopen? 

· Evaluating pricing and tenors

· How are borrowers evaluating funding sources? 

· How are lenders evaluating emerging markets credits? 

· What impact will ESG have on these markets in the future? 


Capitalising on freighter conversion opportunities and navigating conversion
delays
13:45-14:15 GMT

David Shepherd
Chief Executive Officer
IAG Cargo

Our expert panel will analyse the opportunities in the freighter market and
solutions to ongoing conversion delays which continue to quell progress in this
sector.

 * Are we in a freighter bubble? Will the ecommerce market stabilise during
   2023? 
 * Could the popularity in freighters revive investment in widebody aircraft? 
 * Why the leading lessors investing in this market? How has the pandemic
   changed perspectives? 
 * Evaluating investments in the freighter market as macro issues persist 
 * Analysing freighter conversion slot delays and its impact on investment 


Has the investment thesis for widebody older generation aircraft changed?
14:15-14:45 GMT

Mark Lapidus
Chief Executive Officer
Amedeo
· When is long haul travel expected to return to 2019 levels? · Is there any
demand for widebody older generation aircraft? · Analysing the retirement
forecasts for older freighters

Chartering the evolution of the capital markets post pandemic: time frames and
new structures
14:15-14:45 GMT

Mark Streeter
Managing Director
JP Morgan
Rafael Kuhn
Managing Director, Head of Capital Markets and Head of Debt Private Placements
Deutsche Bank
James Palen
Managing Director
Jefferies LLC
Radha Tilton
Managing Director
Goldman Sachs

This panel will closely analyse the ABS and EETC market, evaluating their
current limitations, opportunities, evolution and threats.

 * When will the ABS and EETC market reopen and what are the prospects for these
   markets      throughout 2023? 
 * Market Dynamics: Will the ABS market become more issuer friendly? 
 * Evaluating the key takeaways from the Carlyle ABS deal: An important
   datapoint or a market freezer? 
 * Will there be permanent structural changes to the EETC product in the post
   pandemic  environment? 
 * To what extent does the reopening of the capital markets pose a threat to
   banks? 


To what extent are current economic conditions damaging the trading landscape?
14:45-15:15 GMT

· Gaining clarity on lease rate factors for 2023 · Are new investors entering
this space and what is the current appetite for the secondary market? ·
Evaluating trading volumes and prices · Are rising interest rates significantly
impacting trading and how will this play out? · Analysing ongoing trading
bottlenecks and the volume of aircraft on the market · What are some core issues
around unencumbered assets?

How will innovative financing structures be leveraged in a post pandemic world?
14:45-15:15 GMT

Colin McGinlay
Vice President & Private Debt Investor
MetLife Investment Management
Ali Ben Lmadani
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
ABL Aviation
Elizabeth Lapastora
Director of Structured Securities
Mutual of Omaha
Christopher Butt
Credit Research Analyst
M&G Investments
Dana Barta
Executive Director – Aviation Debt Capital Markets
JPMorgan Chase & Co.

This panel will look at the financial innovations which have been created during
the downturn of the market and whether they have investment potential during the
recovery stage.

 * Why are private equity firms setting up credit and debt funds and will this
   trend continue?
 * Assessing the growth of AFIC throughout 2022
 * Will there be more aircraft loan ABS/CLOs going forward? If so, what type of
   entities will be the issuers? 
 * Are aircraft loan ABS/CLOs more likely to be static pools of loans or more
   dynamic? 
 * What are the advantages and disadvantages of lessor EETCs?
 * How will lessor EETCs evolve in the future? 
 * Assessing the legal implications of lessor EETCs and potential recourse back
   to the airline
 * Assessing how banks can make sufficient returns on warehouse facilities
   without an open ABS market 


Coffee and Networking Break
15:15-15:45 GMT


Will the current environment lead to further airline restructurings?
15:45-16:30 GMT

Rohit Philip
Chief Financial Officer
Avianca

After years of continued instability in the industry, governments, lenders, and
lessors are less likely to be supporting airlines as they struggle to deal with
covid debt and macro headwinds. In this case study we will hear from leading
airlines who have recently undergone a restructuring to understand how they
navigated the bottlenecks during their restructurings and what lessons they
learned.

 * Analysing the key negotiating levers for airlines during a Chapter 11
   restructuring
 * Formulating a robust restructuring plan under unprecedented circumstances
 * Assessing how to raise finance and deal with inter-creditors
 * Evaluating whether the restructuring process permanently strengthens or
   challenges the relationships between airlines and lessors
 * Forum shopping: Exploring restructuring options away from the US Chapter 11


A revaluation of residual value management after repeated black-swan events
15:45-16:15 GMT

Olga Razzhivina
Senior ISTAT Appraiser & Director
Oriel
Stephan Sayre
Co-Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer
Deucalion Aviation
Phil Seymour
President
IBA

A deep dive into what has changed in residual value management throughout the
last couple of years. What has been learnt and how can the industry prepare for
the next black-swan event? It will also look forward to the future to determine
whether a constant wave of new technology will impact the residual value of
current aircraft.

 * How can lessors manage their exposure throughout downturns and gain better
   returns? 
 * Assessing how appraisers made an accurate assessment in the value of assets
   during covid      groundings 
 * Will a recurring wave of new technology have a significant impact on residual
   values?

Finding the best relative value across different assets; new, midlife and end
life


Evaluating risk and return from investing in the aircraft leasing sector
16:15-16:45 GMT

Michael Duff
Publisher & Manging Director
The Airline Analyst

The presentation will use data from The Lessor Analyst to compare and contrast
the different lessors and instruments accessible to the investor:


Is scale and size now a prerequisite for growth in the airline and lessor
sector?
16:45-17:15 GMT

Michelangelo Raimondi
Managing Director
Morgan Stanley
Ray Sisson
Managing Director
Credit Suisse

What will the evolution of the leasing and airline sector look like? Is there
further M&A on the horizon?

 * A breakdown of the number of new leasing companies registering throughout the
   last 12      months
 * Analysing the factors behind the current influx of capital and its
   sustainability 
 * Which players are best primed to engage in M&A and what is the geographical
   breakdown of opportunity?
 * Will supply chain constraints and aircraft shortages be a key driver in more
   lessor M&A? 
 * To what extent will traffic growth and ESG fuel consolidation in the sector?


Examining the financial strength of the Latin America aviation finance market
16:45-17:15 GMT

Juan Echecopar
EVP Corporate Planning and Fleet
Aerolineas Argentinas
Raphael Linares
Director of Fleet & Aircraft Programs
Azul Linhas Aéreas Brasileiras
Andres del Valle Eitel
VP Corporate Finance
LATAM Airlines
 * Analysing current consolidation and rationalisation shaping the market
 * Are there further restructurings on the horizon for airlines in the region? 
 * Will one Latin American LCC emerge victorious in the next decade? 
 * What financing structures are working in the region? 
 * Outlook for the cargo market 
 * How are airlines managing macroeconomic headwinds? 
 * How are banks viewing the credit risk of regional carriers?


Chairs closing remarks & cocktail reception
17:15-18:15 GMT


18 January 2023
Chair’s opening remarks
09:00-09:05 GMT


Keynote Address: Peter Barrett, Chief Executive Officer, SMBC Aviation Capital
09:05-09:30 GMT

Peter Barrett
Chief Executive Officer
SMBC Aviation Capital

A roadmap towards net zero ambitions by 2050: emerging policy requirements and
strategic imperatives
09:30-10:00 GMT

Henrik Hololei
Director-General for Mobility and Transport
European Commission
Marylin Bastin
Head of Aviation Sustainability
EUROCONTROL
· Has the strategic imperative shifted away from sustainability to growth/
regrowth? How are management teams approaching sustainability in an uncertain
macroeconomic backdrop? · What are the core timeframes and how are these being
impacted? · What is holding back the industry meeting/defining core drivers for
sustainability and the move to net zero? · Examples of innovative sustainability
strategies to meet targets · How are global sustainability taxonomies
developing? · Getting ahead of the regulatory curve through self-regulation ·
The carrot vs the stick approach and how regulatory regimes globally are
evolving: taxation and incentive schemes · Overcoming the disconnect between
regulations and the pace of technology development · Outcomes of the IATA
general assembly and the practical steps that stakeholders can take

Airport infrastructure and pilot shortages: fundamental challenges for the
industry and their impact
09:30-10:00 GMT

Dave Davis
Chief Financial Officer
Sun Country
Captain Evan Cullen
President
Irish ALPA

This fiery session will discuss the problems that airports faced over the summer
as traffic returned in record numbers, as well as the upcoming challenges of
pilot shortages. Global pilot shortages have been significantly accelerated by
the pandemic after airlines offered attractive early retirement and buyout
packages to employees. One government estimate predicts a shortfall of 18,000+
pilots each year for the next decade.


This house believes that SAF is a commercially viable alternative to fossil jet
fuel
10:00-10:30 GMT

Chris Chaput
President & Chief Financial Officer
DG Fuels LLC
· How can the price of SAF feedstock be driven down to make it more competitive?
What is holding production back and what investment is needed across the value
chain? · How are traditional fuel suppliers growing SAF production? ·
Alternatives to vegetable such as synthetic and impacts of EU plans to limit
feedstock away from sources such as oils that have environmental challenges ·
What does it take to create SAF production facility? · Reducing arbitrage
between SAF and kerosene in the US and the EU · How are projects being financed?

Debate: this house believes deglobalisation poses the biggest risk to the
recovery of the industry
10:00-10:30 GMT

Andy Mansell
Partner
Split Rock Aviation

A detailed look into how deglobalisation will begin to have an impact on the
industry after 30 or so years of international stability. This debate will
analyse the impact deglobalisation will have on traffic, inflation and supply
chain and investment logistics.

 * What is the risk that long-term traffic growth will be significantly affected
   by deglobalisation? 
 * Analysis of deglobalisation precautious which may further affect supply chain
   issues 
 * Assessing the impact of deglobalisation on freighters and ecommerce
 * Will geopolitical issues change the investing landscape?


Rethinking the airline market equilibrium and low-cost models
10:30-11:00 GMT

Shane Lord
Strategy Director
easyJet
Conor McCarthy
Chief Executive Officer
Emerald Airlines
Dean Jenkins
Assistant Treasurer and Director
Southwest Airlines

This panel will look at the strength and potential changes to the LCC model
during the recovery stage.

 * Evaluating how LCCs will deal with rising cost pressures and macro headwinds 
 * To what extent will the LCC consumer feel the effects of price hikes across
   carriers? 
 * Has the pandemic accelerated the attractiveness of the LCC model? 
 * Will hub and spoke airlines begin a slow transition towards the LCC model? 
 * Are LCCs such as Ryanair completely recession-proof? 
 * Have consumers become accustomed to an environmentally unsustainable low fare
   model? 


Carbon offsetting and operational strategies for carbon reduction
10:30-11:00 GMT

Yvonne Moynihan
Chief Corporate Officer
Wizz Air
Thomas Fowler
Director of Sustainability and Finance
Ryanair
· How effective are offsetting strategies vs “stick” approaches? · Carbon
capturing storage: what tech is required for true carbon offsetting and how
bankable are these technologies · How can carbon trading as a strategy work
effectively? · Realising the full value of ‘easy win’ operational tools
including single engine/electric taxiing, digital ATC and slot control ·
Digitised ATC for reducing fuel burn – what are the opportunities for reduction
of fuel use? · Battery initiated taxiing · Electrification of ground fleet

Coffee Break
11:00-11:30 GMT


New tech keynote panel: what the future of flight looks like?
11:30-12:15 GMT

Dan Routier
EU Business Development Director
ZeroAvia

This unique session will see exclusive product presentation videos from those at
the forefront of EVTOL and supersonic flight technology. This will then be
followed by a panel discussing the market uses of these technology, how they
will change the industry for the better and why the recovery cycle is primed for
investment in these companies.

 * Exclusive presentation videos from 1/2 of the panellists 
 * Exploring potential uses and markets for the EVTOL industry over the next
   decade
 * Beyond 2035: Assessing the future distance range of EVTOLs and how they will
   change the      industry
 * A deep dive into the history and future of supersonic flight
 * Is now the right time for significant investment into the future of flight? 


Technology roadmap for fuel efficiency: electric, hydrogen and emerging fuels
11:30-12:00 GMT

Claudio Camelier
Head of Marketing
Heart Aerospace
· Enabling hydrogen to solve short-haul flying in 5 – 10 years and mid-haul by
2050 · How are smaller OEMs down value chain and start-ups impacting on the
incumbents? · Where is funding coming from for new entrants? · Retrofitting
existing aircraft to decrease carbon footprints per passenger · How does EVTOL
fit in? Is this a core part of airline and sustainability strategies? · What
technological innovations are in the pipeline for larger OEMS for new generation
aircraft and engines?

What are the financial implications of advances in technology and how will risk
be distributed
12:00-12:30 GMT

Dick Forsberg
Commercial Aircraft Leasing and Strategy Professional
Yevgeniya (“Gene”) Levitin
Managing Director, Head of Aviation
Natixis CIB Americas
Phil Seymour
President
IBA
Emily Wicker
President
AWAR
· Who pays for rapid evolution of tech, technical obsolescence and how will
depreciation be accounted for by carriers and investors? · Risk management: how
will lessors manage residual values and steeper depreciation for current
technology aircraft? · Will lower useable lifetimes impact the financing
landscape? · How will risk be managed across all stakeholders? · Rethinking the
appraisal methodology to stay ahead of the technology curve

Cyber resilience in aviation finance
12:15-13:00 GMT


Cyber resilience is an emerging challenge for the industry. Our expert panel of
lessors and airlines will look at the cyber issues which threaten the aviation
business, the strength of cyber resilience organisations in the industry and the
value in products available.

· What are the core cyber threats facing the industry and what is the potential
impact on business? 

· Evaluating the potential ability of a cyber resilient organisation in stopping
these threats

· Is cyber resilience vital for the modern business or is it an accepted risk? 

· Do airlines find value in cyber insurance products? 


Widening the adoption of sustainability-linked financings and building green
leases
12:30-13:00 GMT

Colin McGinlay
Vice President & Private Debt Investor
MetLife Investment Management
Jose Abromovicci
Global Head of Asset Finance
Credit Agricole
Patrick Den Elzen
Chief Executive Officer
Arena Aviation Capital
Ulrike Ziegler
President of the Board of Directors
IMPACT on Sustainable Aviation
· Moving towards a universal definition of environmental sustainability in
aviation to open investment · How can banks standardise principles, reporting
and metrics to ensure a level playing field? · Examining how are
sustainability-linked structures are developing: loans and bonds · How are
sustainability linked KPIs being factored into loans? · Analysing the
methodologies behind carbon scoring of carbon footprints · How can investors
attempting to incorporate ESG practices be helped by the wider industry? ·
Structuring sustainability linked leases

Lunch Break
13:00-14:00 GMT


The Airline Exchange
13:00-14:00 GMT


Behind the curtain: how important is China’s recovery to the wider aviation
finance market?
14:00-14:45 GMT

Mike Poon
Chief Executive Officer
CALC
Arnaud Fiscel
Senior Vice President - Head of Transportation
Bank of China
Laura Lu
Vice President, China Marketing
Aviation Capital Group

The pandemic has demonstrated how vital the Chinese market is to the global
aviation finance industry and yet it remains an unknown what the recovery stage
will look like for the superpower. This panel will unpack many of the topics
facing the Chinese aviation industry today such as lessor M&A and the financial
damage to Chinese airlines.

 * How has the pandemic highlighted the importance of China? 
 * Is the traffic rebound in China a prerequisite for the wider rebound for the
   industry? 
 * How will Chinese airlines recover from historic loses amid ongoing lockdown
   policies? 
 * Assessing the knock-on effects of significant overcapacity in the Chinese
   market
 * Evaluating potential upcoming M&A activity amongst Chinese lessors
 * What deglobalisation risks do investors need to consider when looking at
   China and how can these be mitigated? 


How are airline leadership teams addressing barriers to growth?
14:45-15:30 GMT

Neil Sorahan
Chief Financial Officer
Ryanair Group
Chris Monroe
SVP Treasurer
Southwest Airlines
Ian Malin
EVP and Chief Financial Officer
Wizz Air

Airline leaders from around the world will discuss the current barriers to
growth, such as global pilot shortages, OEM production constraints, inability to
plan fleets, overhaul issues, problems with airport infrastructure and
opportunities in emerging economies.

· What can airlines do to mitigate the pressure of global pilot shortages over
the next twelve months? 

 * Executing on fleet planning amid ongoing OEM      production and supply chain
   issues 
 * Evaluating MRO & overhaul constraints and their effects on fleet planning
 * What can airlines do to streamline issues with airport infrastructure and
   relationships? 
 * Analysing further opportunities in emerging economies such as India and China


Short Break
15:30-15:45 GMT


How should the industry rethink aviation insurance products amid ongoing
litigation challenges
15:45-16:30 GMT


Long-term changes to insurance premiums are one of the biggest concerns for the
industry going into 2023 after unexpected state actions and war in Europe. This
insurance panel will analyse the specific changes that the industry is likely to
see and what it will mean for growth.  

 * Was the insurance industry fundamentally unprepared for a large state
   seizure      of assets?
 * Unpacking All Risk and War insurance policies: Why are they ineffective in a
   situation such as Russia-Ukraine? 
 * To what extent are premiums being reengineered and what would these mean for 
       leasing/financing cost structures?
 * Which countries are at highest risk of a spike in insurance premiums?
 * Assessing whether international confidence in the Cape Town Treaty has been
   lost and whether it can be restored


The Boeing-Airbus debate: is growth limited by the OEM monopoly and supply chain
disruption?
16:30-17:15 GMT

Steve Mason
Former Head of OEM
Avolon

Putting our OEMs to the test in a heated debate concerning one of the biggest
problems in the industry, solving the crisis of supply chain disruption.

 * Analysis of the current OEM market monopoly and its limitations to the
   industry
 * A look at the material impact on delivery timeframes
 * How can OEMs better prepare for the next black-swan event?
 * Assessing how the aviation supply chain can become more equipped to meet
   projected      production rates 
 * What impact have FAA requirements had on Boeing’s ability to manufacture? 
 * Why are prices of aircraft escalating significantly?


End of Airfinance Journal Dublin 2023
17:15-18:15 GMT




SPEAKING ENQUIRIES

Thomas Buckley
Product Developer

☏+442077798413
✉ thomas.buckley@euromoneyplc.com

 

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