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We have updated our terms and conditions and privacy policy Click "Continue" to accept and continue with ET BFSI ACCEPT THE UPDATED PRIVACY & COOKIE POLICY Dear user, ET BFSI privacy and cookie policy has been updated to align with the new data regulations in European Union. Please review and accept these changes below to continue using the website. You can see our privacy policy & our cookie policy. We use cookies to ensure the best experience for you on our website. If you choose to ignore this message, we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies on ET BFSI. * Analytics * Necessary * Newsletter NameProviderExpiryTypePurpose Google AnalyticsGoogle1 YearHTTPSTo track visitors to the site, their origin & behaviour.iBeat AnalyticsIbeat1 YearHTTPSTo track article's statisticsGrowthRx AnalyticsGrowthRx1 YearHTTPSTo track visitors to the site and their behaviour NameProviderExpiryTypePurpose optoutTimes Internet1 YearHTTPSStores the user's cookie consent state for the current domainPHPSESSIDTimes Internet1 dayHTTPSStores user's preferencesaccessCodeTimes Internet2.5 HoursHTTPSTo serve content relevant to a regionpfuuidTimes Internet1 YearHTTPSUniquely identify each userOSTIDTimes Internet1 YearHTTPSOauth secure tokenOSSOIDTimes Internet1 YearHTTPSOauth user identifierOSTPID Times Internet1 YearHTTPSused to sync accross portalsfpidTimes Internet1 YearHTTPSBrowser Fingerprinting to uniquely identify client browsers NamePurpose Daily NewsletterReceive daily list of important newsPromo MailersReceive information about events, industry, etc. I've read & accepted the terms and conditions NEWS SITES * Auto News * Retail News * Health News * Telecom News * Energy News * CIO News * Real Estate News * Brand Equity * CFO News * IT Security News * Government News * Hospitality News * HR News * Legal News * ET TravelWorld News * Infra News * B2B News * CIOSEA News * HRSEA News * HRME News Upcoming Event: CFO Meet & discussion on Revised Companies Act Sign in/Sign up * Follow us: * * * * * * * ETBFSI Exclusive * BANKING * INSURANCE * InsurTech * NBFC * FINTECH * Payments * Digital Lending * RegTech * Open API * BFSI Videos * Editor's View * Brand Solutions * ETBFSI AWARDS 2022 * ETBFSI CXO CONCLAVE Connecting Financial Institutions Digitally * LAY THE GROUNDWORK TO ACCELERATE BANKING INNOVATION * ETBFSI FINNEXT SUMMIT The Future of NBFCs and FinTechs * SIDBI-ET MSMES/STARTUPS Roudtable Discussion * REIMAGINE NEXT * LEARNFEST * REIMAGINE NEXT - THE FUTURE OF LEARNING * ETBFSI.COM CONVERGE BFSI: The world of Hyper-personalization * ETBFSI EXCELLENCE AWARDS 2021 AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE IN INNOVATION * FUTURE READY SECURITY FOR DIGITAL-FIRST BFSI * 3RD EDITION OF ETBFSI CXO CONCLAVE Unlocking the BFSI Potential * THE DIGITAL NEXT: SERIES 2.1 Live Virtual Summit * JOIN THE ECONOMIC TIMES FINANCIAL INCLUSION SUMMIT 2021 * 2ND EDITION OF ETBFSI VIRTUAL SUMMIT 2021 * ET BANKING LEADERSHIP SERIES PRESENTED BY MANIPAL ACADEMY * Millennial Finance * FinTech Diary * BFSI Tech Tales * Green Finance * IBC * ETBFSI Explains * BFSI Movement * More * Blogs * Innovation Masters * POLICY * FINANCIAL SERVICES x * BFSI News * Latest BFSI News * Banking EXCLUSIVE IBBI INCOME SET TO SHOOT UP SEVERAL FOLD WITH REGULATORY FEES Regulator imposes a 0.25 per cent fee on CIRP plans where realisation is more than the liquidity value and one per cent fee on third-party service providers and professionals appointed by insolvency professionals * ETBFSI * September 23, 2022, 07:53 IST * * * * * * * * Insolvency regulator Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) has imposed a regulatory fee of 0.25 per cent on corporate insolvency resolution plans (CIRP) where the realisation value exceeds the liquidation value as it looks to raise finances and reduce dependence on the government. It has also imposed a 1 per cent regulatory fee on third-party service providers and professionals appointed by insolvency professionals. Advertisement Online Masterclass MASTERING M&A AND DEAL MAKING 30 September 2022 @ 09:00 AM Master in building effective M&A deal-making skills & technicalities involved in successful deal negotiations * * * * Register Now Certificates of participation will be awarded on successful completion of the course The regulatory fee of 0.25 per cent — which will come into effect from October 1 — will be applied on the realisable value to creditors under the resolution plan, and only in those cases where the amount of the resolution plan exceeds the liquidation value, the IBBI said in an order. Considering the average aggregate corporate insolvency resolution plan approved every year through the IBC at about Rs 40,000 crore, then IBBI may earn Rs 100 crore from this, as against Rs 5 crore now, according to reports. The new amendments Aiming to reduce delays and realise better value, IBBI this month notified the IBBI (Liquidation Process) (Second Amendment) Regulations 2022 (Amendment Liquidation Regulations), and IBBI (Voluntary Liquidation Process) (Second Amendment) Regulations 2022 (Amendment Voluntary Liquidation Regulations). The amendments would ensure better participation of stakeholders and streamline the liquidation process to reduce delays, they added. Post the modifications, the Committee of Creditors (CoC) constituted during the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) would function as Stakeholders Consultation Committee (SCC) during the first 60 days. After adjudication of claims and within 60 days of initiation of the process, the SCC shall be reconstituted based upon the admitted claims. Also, as per the modifications, the liquidator has been mandated to conduct meetings of SCC in a structured and time-bound manner with better participation of stakeholders. Scope of consultation The scope of mandatory consultation by the liquidator with SCC has been enhanced. Now, SCC may even propose the replacement of the liquidator to the Adjudicating Authority (AA) and fix the fees of the liquidator, in case the CoC has not fixed it during the CIRP. If any claim is not filed during the liquidation process, the amount of claim collated during CIRP shall be verified by the liquidator. Wherever the CoC decides that the process of compromise or arrangement may be explored during the liquidation process, the liquidator shall file application only in such cases before the Adjudicating Authority, for considering the proposal of compromise or arrangement, if any, within thirty days of the order of liquidation. Also, specific event-based timelines have been stipulated for the auction process. In addition to this, before the filing of an application for dissolution or closure of the process, SCC shall advise the liquidator about the manner in which proceedings in respect of avoidance transactions or fraudulent or wrongful trading, shall be pursued after the closure of liquidation proceedings. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking ibbi scc stakeholders consultation committee insolvency and bankruptcy board ibc corporate insolvency resolution process committee of creditors coc adjudicating authority Read on App Read on App PEOPLE WHO READ THIS ALSO READ * FinTechs, Regulator and Future * FIDC director raises red flag around Section 194R of IT Act, urges inclusion of small NBFCs * SEBI Chief's Checklist for FinTechs: ‘Governance, transparency and financial inclusion’ * Axis Bank goes live on account aggregator platform; loan disbursals up 30 pc on month SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER 50000+ Industry Leaders read it everyday I have read Privacy Policy and Terms & Conditions and agree to receive newsletters and other communications on this email ID. BANKING * 1 hr ago IBA SETS UP LARGE WORKING GROUP FOR SUSTAINABLE FINANCE * 1 hr ago RUPEE TRADE WITH BANGLADESH LIKELY AS IT FIGHTS FOREX CRUNCH, SAY BANKERS * 1 hr ago INDUSIND BANK TO BE A LARGE BANK IN 5 YEARS WITH A RS 5 LAKH CRORE BALANCE SHEET * 1 hr ago ECO ACTIVITY STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL; RBI TO SLOW DOWN ON RATE CUTS TILL NEXT YEAR: ADB View More EDITOR'S PICK * 1 hr ago IBA SETS UP LARGE WORKING GROUP FOR SUSTAINABLE FINANCE * 1 hr ago PAYMENT PLATFORMS ROLL-UP SLEEVES AHEAD OF RBI’S TOKENIZATION DEADLINE * 1 hr ago HOW UPI LITE WILL HELP REDUCE THE LOAD ON BANK SYSTEMS * 1 day ago FOSTERING DIGITAL LITERACY IN RURAL INDIA * 1 day ago GOLD: IS IT BETTER AS AN INFLATION HEDGE OR AS A WAY TO HEDGE AGAINST EQUITY RISK IN YOUR PORTFOLIO? BFSI VIDEOS * ETBFSI FINTECH DIARY WITH SASHANK RISHYASRINGA, CO-FOUNDER AND MD, AXIO (FORMERLY CAPITAL FLOAT) Catch the latest episode of ETBFSI FinTech Diary with Sashank Rishyasringa, Co-Founder and MD, axio (formerly Capital Float). * 32 days ago FINTECH DIARY WITH DEEKSHA KAUSHAL, DIRECTOR, FINANCIAL SERVICES & BANKING PARTNERSHIPS, GPAY INDIA * 61 days ago FINTECH DIARY WITH SHACHINDRA NATH, VICE CHAIRMAN AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, U GRO CAPITAL * 70 days ago CREDIT GROWTH PICKING UP ACROSS ALL SECTORS; NO DAMPER IN CASE OF RATE HIKES: SHANTI LAL JAIN View More EXCLUSIVE IBA SETS UP LARGE WORKING GROUP FOR SUSTAINABLE FINANCE Representatives of key banks including SBI, HDFC Bank, PNB, Canara and Axis are part of the group that will help in formulating recommendations on green finance. * ETBFSI Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * The Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) has set up a working group, comprising representatives of key banks, including State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, HDFC Bank and Bank of Baroda to focus on green financing. This working group will help in recommendations on sustainability finance ahead of India’s G20 presidency in December, where environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues will be in focus, according to reports. The other members of the working group include representatives of Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank and four foreign banks -- Standard Chartered Bank, Bank of America NA, Qatar National Bank QPSC and Mashreq Bank PSC. The two other members are Exim Bank and SIDBI. Banks are also seeking priority sector status to sustainable finance to increase funding to projects mitigating climate risks. A PSL status will lead to improved credit flow to sectors that cater to green environment needs. Banks, under the aegis of the IBA, may soon approach the Reserve Bank of India with the demand. India's needs While there is significant green finance available globally, there is a paucity of such capital in India and hence there is a need for a mechanism for Indian companies to tap into the global capital. Green investments of $200 billion are needed annually to meet India's net-zero target. Of that, the country is managing just about $20 billion currently. Even there, a large part comes from traditional public and domestic sources. There is a need for heavily polluting industries to transition to green processes, for instance, the steel industry replacing coking coal with green hydrogen, for which green bank can help. RBI paper on sustainable finance The RBI has taken steps for furthering green finance. In 2021, it joined the Network for Greening Financial System, a voluntary group of 116 central banks that promotes the exchange of best practices on green finance. In July this year, the RBI released a discussion paper on climate risk and sustainable finance to help regulated entities deal with the issues arising from a warming planet. The guidelines revolve around appropriate governance, strategy to address climate change risks and risk-management structure to manage them from a micro-prudential perspective, the paper said. Regulated entities may explore aligning their climate-related financial disclosures on the lines of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures’ framework. This framework is increasingly being recognised as a suitable basis for climate-related financial disclosures, the paper said. Adapting the same would also help improve the consistency and comparability of the climate-related financial disclosures of regulated entities with their counterparts globally, the paper said. These entities may make such disclosures annually, to begin with and may use their sustainability reports, annual reports, website, or a combination of them to facilitate public access, the paper said. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking iba rbi india financial disclosures yes bank union bank of india state bank of india standard chartered bank reserve bank of india punjab national bank Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE RUPEE TRADE WITH BANGLADESH LIKELY AS IT FIGHTS FOREX CRUNCH, SAY BANKERS Two senior bankers told ET that in the wake of the turbulence faced by Bangladesh they expect a bilateral loan denominated in Indian rupees can be used by the country to pay for the imports from India. * Sugata Ghosh * ET Bureau Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * A dollar crunch in Bangladesh, dip in the country's foreign exchange reserves and a weakening taka may soon pave the way for a rupee loan line to Bangladesh and settlement of India's trade with the neighbour in local currency, according to banking circles. Two senior bankers told ET that in the wake of the turbulence faced by Bangladesh they expect a bilateral loan denominated in Indian rupees can be used by the country to pay for the imports from India. A framework for settling exports and imports invoiced in rupees is in place with the Reserve Bank of India's June 11 circular allowing special vostro accounts that banks of the partner country can have with banks in India. It may further require a central bank notification allowing settlement of trade transactions in Indian rupees outside the Asian Clearing Union mechanism - an arrangement, in vogue since the mid-70s, to facilitate payments among member countries on a multilateral basis to economise on the use of forex reserves and transfer costs. (In May, RBI permitted settlement of trade with Sri Lanka in rupees as the country grappled with a severe shortage in hard currency). Indian banks have turned cautious and selective on their exposure to Bangladesh amid fears that in the coming days banks there may find it difficult to organise dollars from the market to pay for the goods the country imports. Bangladesh is considering currency diversification and measures to cut down dollar outgo. "Under the circumstances we understand that a rupee loan facility may be under consideration. It would reduce the strain on Bangladesh's forex kitty and is likely to work out cheaper when the loan is repaid later. If the loan is in rupee, the outgo in taka terms would be less compared to a dollar loan because the rupee would also depreciate," said a banker. However, the advantage is retained only if the loan is used only to buy Indian goods invoiced in rupees. If the rupees lent is converted to US dollars and used to buy dollar-invoiced goods, the benefit goes away. But a rupee loan line is a matter that New Delhi and Dhaka, along with the central banks of the two countries have to finalise. "We have not received any communication from the RBI or the ministry so far. However, we believe some initial discussions have happened given the relationship between the two countries," said the person. An RBI spokesman did not comment on the matter. According to the RBI circular, the exchange rate between the currencies of the two trading partner countries (settling trade in rupees) may be market-determined. "While a rupee-taka exchange rate can be arrived at using the dollar, the banks representing exporters and importers cannot readily sell rupees to buy taka or vice-versa as currencies are partly convertible. Unlike the trade with Russia, exports are more than imports from Bangladesh," said an industry official. Bangladesh had a trade deficit of $14 billion with India in the last financial year. The country's forex reserves have fallen below $37 billion - down by over $11 billion in one year. Geopolitics and financial compulsions have combined to push countries to figure out ways to promote foreign trade in domestic currencies. Whhile the India-Russia trade in rupee (yet to fully take off) is an outcome of US sanctions, a local currency trade with Sri Lanka is the fallout of an acute shortage in hard currency. "While rupee remains a currency of limited convertibility, the new arrangements could slowly increase its acceptance in other markets. Probably, countries would look beyond arrangements like ACU," said a banker. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking india bangladesh trade taka rupee forex bank of india bangladesh news Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE INDUSIND BANK TO BE A LARGE BANK IN 5 YEARS WITH A RS 5 LAKH CRORE BALANCE SHEET Private lender IndusInd Bank’s balance sheet will cross `5 lakh crore in the next five years, its managing director Sumant Kathpalia told Saloni Shukla and MC Govardhana Rangan in an interview. * Saloni Shukla & * MC Govardhana Rangan * ET Bureau Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * Private lender IndusInd Bank’s balance sheet will cross Rs 5 lakh crore in the next five years, its managing director Sumant Kathpalia told Saloni Shukla and MC Govardhana Rangan in an interview. Kathpalia also said he is not looking to grow inorganically as it will be dilutive for the bank. Edited excerpts: Credit growth is at multi-year highs, inflation is denting consumer confidence, financial markets are shaky. What do these mean for the Indian economy? The Indian economy continues to progress well on recovery notwithstanding the external disturbances. All the high-frequency vectors…GST, freight movement, card spends, automobile industry growth…are all moving in a positive direction. With deleveraging of balance sheets in the corporate sector and high capital adequacy ratios in the banking sector, we are poised for a very good growth rally for the next two to three years. There are no NPAs which have not been provided for by the banking sector. We have to watch out for liquidity concerns, inflation and be cautiously optimistic, specifically in the unsecured business. Are you still seeing the pain at the bottom of the pyramid? Rural growth has happened but not at the pace at which urban growth has happened. Consumption is happening but not at the pace one would have expected because they are still coming out of the effects of Covid 2.0. In our book, you would see some (bad loan) flows this quarter also, but the flows will be far lesser than what you saw in quarter one, and by quarter three, they will continue to come down. The restructured book may not come down dramatically because of the regulations to have continuity of payments for 12 months before these accounts are moved away from the restructured book. We will end up with 120-150 basis points of credit costs this year. You have navigated three tough years as an MD. What does the agenda for the next three years look like? If you look at the last three years, the agenda was very simple. We have worked on building a strong liability franchise, ironing out issues in our corporate book, and fortifying the balance sheet. The agenda for the next few years will be building on our domain specialisation. This differentiates us from the rest of the industry. We still need to do a lot of work on the granularisation of liability. I continue to believe that liabilities have to lead the growth for assets. Next would be the launch of a digital 2.0 strategy. In December and January, we will see the launch of a differently-enabled technology stack. We will also continue to grow the corporate side of the balance sheet, and it should be 45% of our portfolio. And the last agenda is to drive new products, like merchant acquisition, diversify our microfinance business into micro banking in rural India, scooter loans, and affordable housing loans. In another 5-7 years what will IndusInd Bank look like? IndusInd Bank will look like a bank which has domain specialisation. We will also be in para-banking activities, in three areas of asset management, non-life insurance and broking. We will be considered as a large bank in five to seven years, with an asset portfolio of more than Rs 5 lakh crore. We will be a leading player in rural India because of our inordinate distribution in that geography. What is the plan to grow the microfinance book? I think our growth will be very different as we go forward. We have diversified this business into merchant acquiring business in semi-urban and rural areas. This book was at Rs 2,300 crore at the end of quarter one; we expect this book will become Rs 10,000 crore in the next two years. In terms of scooter loans, we will be able to do a Rs 5,000 crore book in the next two years. We will grow at 25-30%. Your share prices have taken a dramatic beating over the last couple of years. When do you feel it will return the lost glory? I can’t comment on the share price; my job is to give earnings per share and stability of earnings. I can say that we will be in the top quartile on all the financial metrics in the banking sector. I think investors have to get their confidence back. Over the last two years, we’ve been trying to do that and the share price will take its own way. The government is privatising IDBI Bank. There are plans to sell the Central Bank of India as well. Would this interest you? We have not evaluated it, but in my opinion, IDBI Bank has a very clean balance sheet. We have three considerations when we look at a potential buyout. Does it complement or create anew business line? So, whenever we’ve done an acquisition, it’s always complementary to our core businesses. For example, microfinance, or diamond, a new line of business came into play. Second, are RoA (return on assets) and RoE (return on equity) accretive to us? Third, does it bring any regulatory issues or any labour issues along with it as a consequence? Today, if you look at our stock price, and the way it’s trending, the buyout will not be accretive to our shareholders. Also, I believe we have headroom to grow organically right now. We should evaluate this when it comes and see what parameters make sense for us. Has the promoter shareholder communicated any plans of increasing stake in the bank? We have no plans to raise capital. As per our plans, the internal accruals should be enough for the bank to take care of the growth. You do capital raise if you have an acquisition in mind, and a target in mind, or you are growing at a faster pace of 30-35%. Today, I think we’ve taken care of our losses, our growth rates are at 20-22%, and internal accruals can take care of this growth. If there is any need for capital, the promoters have always put in the capital without considering the share price. For 12-18 months, we don’t need fresh capital. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking indusind bank sumant kathpalia saloni shukla indusind banks govardhana rangan kathpalia indusind bank indusind india Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE ECO ACTIVITY STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL; RBI TO SLOW DOWN ON RATE CUTS TILL NEXT YEAR: ADB With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. * PTI Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier. Inflation will remain elevated this year and the next, ADB said in an update to its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 report. "This Update forecasts the inflation rate averaging 6.7 per cent in FY2022 (fiscal ending in March 2023) before moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY2023 (ending in March 2024), just below the central bank target range of 2 - 6 per cent," it said. Both forecasts are higher than ADO 2022's projections. Even though supply pressures are expected to ease in the current fiscal year, upward pressure on inflation could continue because of demand-side pressures caused by increasing economic activity, according to the ADB report. The report says the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase policy rates even though economic activity is still below the pre-pandemic trend and inflation continues to be driven more by domestic supply conditions than international factors. "The RBI may, however, consider slowing the pace of policy rate hikes until next year because economic activity, although increasing, remains below the pre-pandemic trend. At the same time, allowing the exchange rate to serve as an automatic stabilizer will help improve the balance of payments position," as per the ADO Update. The RBI has increased the policy rate by 140 basis points (1.4 per cent) over 4 months to contain inflationary expectations. High inflation due to elevated oil and commodity prices will likely require continued tightening monetary policy to ensure that inflation expectations do not get entrenched, which would likely hinder economic growth in the short run, it said. As per the report, India's exports and growth are expected to be adversely affected due to weaker than expected global demand over the next two years. ADB has cut India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent, on the assumption that global demand will remain sluggish and oil prices will remain elevated. For next fiscal, ADB expects the Indian economy to grow by 7.2 per cent as against 8 per cent it had projected earlier. "Nevertheless, the economy is expected to grow strongly over the forecast horizon, with investment playing a catalytic role. Private consumption will be affected by higher inflation eroding consumer purchasing power even though consumer confidence continues to improve. "Sticky core inflation will adversely impact spending over the next 2 years if wages fail to adjust," cautions the ADB report. Even as government subsidy support on fertiliser and gas, free food distribution as well as excise duty cuts will help offset some of the effects of high inflation on consumers, ADB said taxes on packaged food products will likely be a burden on consumers already dealing with rising inflation. The Manila-based agency also expects investment growth to be lower than projected due to the increase in RBI policy rates, increasing the cost of borrowing for investors amid rising global uncertainty. On the rupee, ADB said the RBI has been active in preventing it from depreciating further, resulting in the biggest drawdown of foreign exchange reserves since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The rupee depreciated from Rs 74.3 to the US dollar in January 2022 to Rs 80 in July. It fell further below Rs 81 this week. "To minimise the loss of reserves, future interventions should be aimed at reducing wide short-term exchange rate swings rather than stabilising the rate, thereby allowing it to reflect underlying market conditions and remain an automatic stabiliser," the ADO Update said. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking adb rbi reserve bank of india india asian development bank ado update manila Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE HUGE MULTI-DECADE RUNWAY IN BANKS, CONSUMPTION GOING STRONG: AJAY BAGGA “FIIs are invested in the top end quality players and can take out Rs 2,000-3,000 crore on a daily basis and with the retail flows coming in, we have seen that gate has become even wider. So we will continue to see the suffering coming into the Indian market, not because of any intrinsic reason for our markets but because we are linked to the global play.” * ET Now Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * "Living it in the real world takes a lot of emotional balance and that is why we say do not try to time it. Just stay invested and keep investing regularly. That is the best mantra," says market expert Ajay Bagga The major event that the market was waiting for – the Fed meeting as well as the dot plot – is over and global markets are nowhere in a mood to recover. What is your view on market recovery? What kind of a movement are you expecting for the Indian market? I have been cautious for quite some time. Basically there is a big shift in the global macro in terms of very enhanced volatility. Second, the kind of tightening that is happening, the rate hikes, are unprecedented. We have not seen this kind of rate hike for the last 40 years. We will have to bear this period. There will be these bouts of markets moving up and down sharply, but overall I would say the markets will struggle to go up from here. Indian markets on the back of a good economy should outperform their global peers but the risk is when everything is on sale and we have an open door policy in India where one can take out a lot of stuff. FIIs are invested in the top end quality players and can take out Rs 2,000-3,000 crore on a daily basis and with the retail flows coming in, we have seen that gate has become even wider. So we will continue to see the suffering coming into the Indian market, not because of any intrinsic reason for our markets but because we are linked to the global play. I would say still cautious as RBI will probably raise by 50 bps. They might want to do a 35 bps hike just to act differently, but from South Africa 75, to a Sweden 100, to a Vietnam 100, to Switzerland 75 – the last negative rate bond has gone last week with the Swiss National Bank raising rates by 75 bps and going to zero. About 90 central banks have raised rates this year. Out of that, on more than 47 occasions, over 75 bps hikes have been done. To protect the rupee, RBI’s hands will be tied for a 50 bps hike but let us see, maybe they will do 35 bps rate hike. What does an investor do in this kind of a volatile situation? What is the best way to navigate it because there are a lot of things available on sale. But even in the stock market, for the last couple of days, we have seen opportunity to buy more stuff? Yes, definitely. In any market, there will be a lot of things on sale and even though Bank Nifty is getting hit a lot, my first go-to place would be banks. You have a huge multi decade kind of a runway here. This is still a very under banked country, very under penetrated and we will get those benefits. So financials stay top pick. IT is still going to take three to six months before there is some amount of plateau-ing of the margins and the issues that are there. Consumption is going strong and with the harvest now coming in, we are hoping that rural consumption will also take off. The first harvests have started reaching the mandis and next week onwards, you will start seeing an upsurge in the rural consumption coming in. The consumption stocks look well positioned. The market has moved ahead in terms of anticipating this but overall short and sweet to investors. If you do not need the money for the next one year, stay invested because the markets might go down from here. I think it could break those also if the US breaks even lower. But the good thing is when the market turns in a few days, it will give the year’s returns. So staying invested is what works for most retail investors. One cannot time it well. Second, is the incremental money put into SIPs. So buying the stocks that you like in small amounts every week or every month might be a better strategy because we do not know how long this will last. If there is a recession in the US, the US yield curve is telling you that a recession might be coming. Now the point to note is 100% of recessions are preceded by a yield curve inversion but yield curve inversion does not mean that a recession will come. Now more and more, it is looking unlikely that the Fed will be able to control inflation without a hard landing. Three things could happen really; one, they give up their 2% target and move to 3 or 4% and life goes on. Second, there is some political interference which is unlikely in an American kind of scenario. We are seeing that in Turkey but I doubt it will happen. Three, to get it to 2%, US unemployment has to be taken to 6.7%. I am an old economist. I mark it on my Phillips Curve and that is what the Phillips Curve is telling me, 6.7%. 5.3 million unemployment is the rate at which inflation comes to 2%. It is mathematical, it is not my opinion. It is what the curve tells you. That would be a grim recession and markets will anticipate it, markets will make a bottom about six months before we hit that. They will start going up also even before we have hit the trough of the economic cycle and that is the beauty of markets. We know it in theory; living it in the real world takes a lot of emotional balance and that is why we say do not try to time it. Just stay invested and keep investing regularly. That is the best mantra. You have already told us your first port of call is the banking stocks. If we had to step away from that, what are the other themes that you are watching out for? Is it consumption, is it Europe plus one, is it the festive season or even industrials and defence? All the themes that you mentioned have done well and they have a lot of scope behind them. I would like to share Europe plus one. I spoke to three friends who are industrialists in Europe over the last two days and each of them was saying there is so much pain, it is very difficult to really run the business and they were looking at introductions to manufacturers in India to move that. The second very interesting analysis I was reading is that the cost of wood has gone up nearly 87% because for the winters. Whole neighbourhoods are stockpiling wood in case gas runs away because even at 100% gas storage, there is only enough gas for 80 days in Europe. So if they have a four-five month winter, you do not have enough gas because new supplies from Russia has stopped. So the Norwegians are stepping in, Spain is sending some but it will take a lot of management. So, Europe plus one is very strong, it could help our auto industry, chemicals, specialty chemicals and consumption as well. Now the big thing is given where the consumer confidence numbers are in Europe, will we see a blockbuster Christmas or will it be indifferent consumption? On consumer exports, I would be a little wary but India will substitute things like machinery, auto, chemicals and in the short term, we have great opportunities. Europe plus one is a big theme we should look at very closely. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking stock market outlook ajay bagga phillips curve fed Europe plus one strategy expert view india stock market et now phillips Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE HIGH NPAS IN EDUCATION LOAN SEGMENT TURN BANKS CAUTIOUS High defaults of about 8% in the education loan portfolio have made banks cautious and go slow on the sanction of such credit. Non-performing assets (NPAs) in the education loan category including public sector banks' (PSBs) were 7.82% at the end of June quarter of the current financial year. * PTI Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * High defaults of about 8 per cent in the education loan portfolio have made banks cautious and go slow on the sanction of such credit. Non-performing assets (NPAs) in the education loan category including public sector banks' (PSBs) were 7.82 per cent at the end of June quarter of the current financial year. Outstanding education loans were about Rs 80,000 crore at June-end. Cautious approach is adopted at the end of branches while sanctioning education loans due to high NPAs, a senior public sector bank official said. As a result some genuine cases are overlooked and there are delays, the official said. Recently, the finance ministry had called a meeting of PSBs to take stock of the education loan portfolio and cut down on delay. The ministry exhorted banks to spread awareness about the Central Sector Interest Subsidy Scheme among field formations. The sharp increase in non-performing assets (NPA) in education loans extended by commercial banks in India in recent years is a matter of concern, as it could hamper the growth of bank credit for higher education in the country, according to an occasional paper published by RBI. In India, around 90 per cent of education loans are disbursed by the PSBs. Private sector banks and regional rural banks (RRBs) accounted for around 7 per cent and 3 per cent of total education loan outstanding, respectively, as at end- March 2020, the paper published in June 2022 said. The outstanding education loans of all banks were Rs 79,056 crore at the end of March 2020 and at Rs 78,823 crore as of March 2021, as per the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2020-21 by the RBI. However, the outstanding loans increased to Rs 82,723 crore as of March 25, 2022. According to Resurgent India managing director, Jyoti Prakash Gadia, fresh job creation has not kept pace with the number of graduates coming out of the colleges, thereby adversely impacting the timely repayment of education loans. As a result, NPAs have gone up and banks are hesitant to grant fresh education advances, particularly loans up to Rs 7.50 lakh which are without any collateral and third party guarantee, he said. The effective implementation of the New Education Policy, which lays due emphasis on basic skills development and employability, shall create a win win situation for all the stakeholders, he added. Most banks offer a scheme for education loan as per the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) model education loan scheme to students pursuing higher studies in India and abroad. As per this model loan scheme, education loans of up to Rs 4 lakh do not require any collateral to be provided by the borrower, education loans up to Rs 7.5 lakh can be obtained with collateral in the form of suitable third-party guarantee, while education loans above Rs 7.5 lakh require tangible collateral. In all the above cases, co-obligation of parents is necessary. The second category of education loans are sanctioned to those students who obtain admissions to colleges/universities through management quota, provided they satisfy the minimum marks criteria in the preceding examination. The third category of education loans includes schemes for needy students for pursuing vocation education courses run by industrial training institutes (ITIs), polytechnics, training partners affiliated to National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC)/sector skill councils, state skill mission/corporation, preferably leading to a certificate/diploma/degree issued by such organisation as per National Skill Qualification Framework (NSQF) and any other institutions recognized by either the central or state education boards or university. The fourth category of scheme specifically caters to the requirement of students studying in premier institutions like IITs/IIMs/NITs/IISc or courses abroad, with demand for a higher quantum of loan amount. All education loans of up to Rs 10 lakh (enhanced to Rs 20 lakh in September 2020) have been included within the priority sector definition by the Reserve Bank of India. Under most of these schemes, moratorium period consists of the course period plus six months to one year, and there are nil/negligible processing fees for schemes with high value education loans. The interest rate under the various schemes consists of a markup of 2-3 per cent above the marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR)/external benchmark, based on the reputation of the course/institutions. The repayment period is in the range of 10-15 years. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking Education Loan reserve bank of india rbi national skill development corporation india iba central sector interest subsidy scheme resurgent india jyoti prakash gadia bank of india Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE TANZANIA CENTRAL BANK TO REDUCE LIQUIDITY TO TACKLE INFLATION TANZANIA-INFLATION/Tanzania central bank to reduce liquidity to tackle inflation * Reuters Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * DAR ES SALAAM, Sept 24 - Tanzania's central bank will reduce liquidity in the economy in September and October to slow rising inflation in the east African country, a statement from the bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) published on Saturday said. "In the context of ... high inflation and commodity prices, which has contributed to rising inflationary pressures in the country, the MPC approved for the bank to continue with gradual reduction of liquidity in September and October 2022," the statement said. "The policy decision aims at reducing inflationary pressures, while safeguarding economic activities." Inflation in Tanzania rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5% the previous month, while the country's economy was facing a range of challenges, including weak global growth, high commodity prices, tight financial conditions and the recurrence of COVID-19 in some countries, the statement said. (Reporting by Nuzulack Dausen; Writing by Elias Biryabarema. Editing by Jane Merriman) Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking tanzania nuzulack dausen mpc jane merriman elias biryabarema dar es salaam Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE SOVEREIGN GOLD BOND: PREMATURE REDEMPTION OF SGB FIXED AT THIS PRICE The India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. shall determine the basis for the redemption price of SGB using the simple average of the closing gold price for 999 purity for the week (Monday through Friday) before to the date of redemption (IBJA). * Sneha Kulkarni * ET Online Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * The Reserve Bank of India has fixed the price for early/premature redemption of the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme SGB 2016 Series II and SGB 2016-17 Series II at Rs 4,952 per unit. According to the RBI press release, “Accordingly, the due date of the fourth and third premature redemption of the above tranches shall be on September 29, 2022 and September 30, 2022 respectively’. Sovereign Gold Bonds make it simple for you to invest in gold without having to worry about having physical gold. Users hold the investments in demat form, and they have the option of redeeming them at maturity or earlier. How is redemption calculated The simple average of the closing gold price for 999 purity for the week (Monday through Friday) before the date of redemption, as announced by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd., shall serve as the basis for the redemption price of SGB (IBJA). As a result, based on the simple average of the closing gold price for the week of September 19–23, 2022, the redemption price for the early redemptions due on September 29 and 30, 2022, shall be Rs. 4,952 per unit of SGB. Minimum and maximum amount to invest in the Sovereign Gold Bond The minimum amount to invest in the Sovereign Gold Bond is one gram, with a maximum of 4,000 grams per fiscal year for Individual/Hindu Divided Families and 20,000 grams for Trusts and Similar Entities as specified by the government from time to time. What is the redemption process? According to the RBI, this is the procedure involved in redemption The investor will be advised one month before maturity regarding the ensuing maturity of the bond. On the date of maturity, the maturity proceeds will be credited to the bank account as per the details on record. In case there are changes in any details, such as, account number, email ids, then the investor must intimate the bank/SHCIL/PO promptly. Trading of bonds According to HDFC Bank website, “The bonds are tradable on stock exchanges from the date to be notified by RBI. The bonds can also be sold and transferred as per provisions of Government Securities Act. However, the client would have to approach his / her broker for trading related requirements.” Here are important Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB)FAQs as per the IDBI Bank website 1. What is the rate of interest and how will the interest be paid? The Bonds bear interest at the rate of 2.50 per cent (fixed rate) per annum on the amount of initial investment. Interest will be credited semiannually to the bank account of the investor and the last interest will be payable on maturity along with the principal. 2. Who are the authorized agencies selling the SGBs? Bonds are sold through scheduled commercial banks and designated Post Offices either directly or through their agents like NBFCs, NSC agents, etc. 3. Is it necessary for me to apply through my bank? It is not necessary for the customer to apply through the bank where he/she has his/ her account. A customer can apply through another bank or Post Office. 4. If I apply, am I assured of allotment? If the customer meets the eligibility criteria, produces a valid identification document and remits the application money on time, he/she will receive the allotment. 5. When will the customers be issued Holding Certificate? The customers will be issued Certificate of Holding on the date of issuance of the SGB. Certificate of Holding can be collected from the issuing banks/Post Offices/agents or obtained directly from RBI on email, if email address is provided in the application form. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking Sovereign Gold Bond Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme sgb scheme Reserve Bank of India idbi bank hdfc bank Gold Bond Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE SHIVALIK SMALL FINANCE BANK REVISES FD, SAVINGS ACCOUNT INTEREST RATES The interest rates for fixed deposits and savings accounts have changed at Shivalik Small Finance Bank (SFB). On September 19, 2022, the new rates will go into effect, according to the bank's website. * Sneha Kulkarni * ET Online Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * Shivalik Small Finance Bank (SFB) has revised its fixed deposit and savings account (FD) interest rates. According to the bank's website, the new rates are effective from September 19, 2022. Savings account Savings account interest is based on day-end balances kept in the account and is paid on a quarterly basis. The calculation of interest is based on incremental balance slabs. Interest rate is offered between 3.50% and 7%. Fixed Deposits Senior citizens receive an additional spread of 0.5% on top of the card rates shown above as their incentive. In Shivalik Small Finance Bank, interest rates are calculated using simple interest for up to six months. All rates longer than six months will be compounded quarterly. The bank offers different rates for amounts below Rs 25 lakhs, Rs 25 Lacs to below Rs 2 Crores, and 2 Crores and above. Recurring and flexi recurring deposit According to the website, “Flexi Recurring Deposit Accounts are opened for term expressed in multiple of quarters. Interest for terms of 6 months and above is compounded quarterly and payable at maturity.” Source: Bank website Premature withdrawal Note that early withdrawal will result in a penalty equal to 1% of the interest for the time the account has been open, or the card rate of the initial deposit, whichever is less. Follow and connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, Linkedin, Youtube Banking shivalik small finance bank interest rates Shivalik Small Finance Bank savings account interest rates fixed deposits fixed deposit interest rates FD Read on App Read on App EXCLUSIVE BANK CREDIT GROWTH AT 16.2 %, MORE THAN DOUBLE LAST YEAR'S PACE ank credit rose 16.2 percent to Rs 125.5 lakh crore as of September 9'22 over last year's levels. This is reckoned to be the highest growth in more than eight years and more than double the pace of 6. per cent growth in September'21. Analysts attribute this to a surge in corporate demand besides a steady growth in retail and MSME loans. * Gayatri Nayak * ET Bureau Click Here to Read This Story * * * * * * * * Bank credit rose 16.2 percent during the fortnight ended September 9, more than double the pace of 6.7 per cent in the same period last year as corporate demand is picking up and are going back to banks to meet their funding requirements due to tight market rates. Bank credit rose 16.2 percent to Rs 125.5 lakh crore as of September 9'22 over last year's levels. This is reckoned to be the highest growth in more than eight years and more than double the pace of 6. per cent growth in September'21. Analysts attribute this to a surge in corporate demand besides a steady growth in retail and MSME loans. "Notably, with aggregate capacity utilization levels at 75% (as of June 2022) and a tightening global monetary landscape, banks are facing renewed demand from corporates—largely for increased working capital requirements, which until recently were met by overseas borrowing or the corporate bond market" said Tanvee Gupta Jain, UBS India Economist. "This was also supported by banks’ improved willingness to lend". India Ratings has revised its banking credit growth estimate for FY'23 to 13.0% yoy from 10.0%. The factors driving this upward revisions include the following the rise in working capital demand even as capex is likely to see some moderation, given the build-up of macro uncertainties. Moreover with the adverse interest rate cycle, there is a visible shift from capital markets to the banking system for longer term funding. Also, the revival in credit demand from the corporate segment is better than expected, especially in sectors such as infrastructure and chemicals, the ratings firm said. From the lenders' perspective, assets quality concerns are waning. Asset quality metrics continue to improve, with the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio for the banking system declining to 6.1% in FY'22 from the peak of 11.2% in FY'18, according to India Ratings. 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