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HERE'S WHEN MARKET EXPERTS THINK INFLATION WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL

Madison Hoff
Nov 16, 2023, 11:59 AM ET
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A person shops in a grocery store as prices are displayed on October 12, 2023 in
Los Angeles. Mario Tama/Getty Images
 * While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it
   could in a year or two.
 * Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year.
 * J.P. Morgan Asset Management's David Kelly is one expert who sees inflation
   on track to being around the Fed's 2% target by the end of next year.

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Inflation has been one of the biggest pain points in the economy for the last
couple years, but the end may be in sight.

Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around
2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in
2024.

The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, far below the
incredibly high 9.1% year-over-year increase in June 2022. October's increase is
also a lower year-over-year rise than August's and September's.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 4.0% in October from October
2022. That increase is not only just under the 4.1% increase in September, but
it's the smallest rise since September 2021.

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"Slower consumer demand, reduced housing rents, lower profit margins, easing
wage growth and restrictive monetary policy represent the ideal disinflationary
combo heading into 2024," Gregory Daco, EY's chief economist, said in recent
commentary.



"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco
said in his commentary.

David Kelly, chief global strategist of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, had
similar thoughts in his commentary after the release of the CPI report on
Tuesday.

"Overall, this report confirms that CPI inflation remains on a track to fall to
close to 2% year-over-year by the fourth quarter of 2024 and that consumption
deflator inflation still looks likely to fall below the Fed's 2% target over the
same time frame," Kelly said.

An article from ING's James Knightley before the new CPI data was published said
"we forecast headline inflation to be in a 2-2.5% range from April onwards with
core CPI testing 2% in the second quarter."



Still, the third quarter Bankrate Economic Indicator Survey of experts and
economists done in September found 41% said getting to the target inflation rate
won't be the case "until at some point by the end of 2025," as stated by Sarah
Foster's reporting for Bankrate on the results.

And the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections from September showed that the
central bank's key decision makers predicted 2.5% inflation in their preferred
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index measure at the end of 2024, 2.2%
for 2025, and 2.0% for 2026.

The year-over-year increases in the PCE Price Index for July, August, and
September were all the same at 3.4%.

A Goldman Sachs article also said "the hard part of the inflation fight looks
over" and that core "inflation is on track to fall further in 2024."



Core PCE growth was 3.7% year over year this September. Goldman Sachs forecasts
that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in
December 2024.

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, said at a policy panel earlier this
month that the Federal Open Market Committee "is committed to achieving a stance
of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to
2% over time; we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance."

"If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do
so," Powell said. "We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to
address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk
of overtightening."

People are still feeling inflation's impact even if it has cooled off.



Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate, recently told Business
Insider based on Bankrate survey results of US adults that half of them feel
their financial situation has worsened from where it stood in November 2020.

Hamrick said while there are things in the economy indicating strength, "there
are many things that undermine confidence of consumers and business."

"It's been an ongoing theme where I'm talking to people about data, even talking
to non-journalists about data, and I think some people have a hard time
extracting where the negative tone is originating," Hamrick said. "I think this
survey, because cost of living is essentially the number one irritant where
people are saying that's the primary thing that's substantially worse over the
last three years, it ends up being that inflation is obviously the reason."


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